For the TPWD Draw hunts, we are missing the best information to determine which hunts for which to apply.

Let’s say there is a hunt with 1 permit and each year there is an average of 5,000 applicants.

With loyalty points(LPs) and cubing….the above information is pretty much useless to determine your odds of getting drawn.

If the 5,000 applicants average….and you have 0 of 1 LPs….

2LPs….your chance of being drawn is 1/40,000

5LPs….you get 1/625,000

10LPs…you get 1/5,000,000

You can then calculate your odds based on your individual number of LPs.

I have asked TPWD for last year’s drawings to provide the total number of LPs for a drawing. They say that they simply cannot calculate that. Absolute BS….whatever software they use can show the raw data entered.

I would encourage those of you that are interested to press TPWD for transparency for the draw hunts. Many other states provide this data and it isn’t too much to ask.

+++++UPDATE+++++ Finally got a few scenarios from TPWD…..2 of 4 example drawings had over a MILLION LPs entered. That really helps to put things in perspective. I have 20 LPs for Gun Deer Either sex…..so I have less than a 1% chance of being drawn

You have zero chance of winning the hunts you don’t enter.
Just pick the ones you would like to do based on animal quality or harvest potential or just a place you would like to visit.

Enter those.

Is having that info going to sway you from putting that 20 lp’s into the most desirable gun hunts?
I don’t see someone going “you know what, I think I’ll take my 20 lp’s and not enter the chap and I’ll enter Atlanta sp instead because my odds are better”

Not to mention you can enter more than one place in whatever category now. That information may have been a little more helpful if they only allowed one entry per category

Actually…..yes…that is what I will be doing. Just not for Atlanta

Yeah I’m lost.
Guess I’m just dumb.

I just assume the draws are pretty much randum when I enter no matter how many points I have. Even if you have a lot of points, the odds make your chances not much more than random. The only way to change that is a hybrid system like Wyoming has. Calculate preference points for the preference draw and then convert them to cubed loyalty points for the random draw.

At $3 an entry I don’t put much thought into it. It would be another thing if the cost was higher.

Same. I drew Richland GDE in 2004 with no preference points. I have drawn a few hunts that zeroed out my points in a category then drew the same hunts the next year. You never know.

$6 for me and my BIL isn't a major amount since I am selective about what I apply for.

They didn't cube the preference points back in 2004

I agree that TPWD should provide that information. States like Montana who square points for some species, will give you the point break down for each hunt of how many people applied and how many points they had.

Welp, I drew Gemsbok this year and 2nd draw pending on Oryx. I haven't been drawn for anything the last three years. 15 points. Not questioning the system anymore

Congrats!!!!!!

Your thinking about it to much. Texas has very little public land and very low odds for the most part, lot better draw options in other states.

I agree with the OP. I don’t know why the State doesn’t provide more granular detail (my guess is they think this will cause fewer entries and less money raised because the odds are really, really low).

One other factor in determining odds is the LP others have who are entering the same hunts. I had 500+ in a turkey hunt that only 600 entered last year and didn't get drawn for one of the 8 spots. If I understand correctly then I had 500 entries in each time one of the 8 spots were drawn. That means there were at least several hunters with more points. plus, it is still "random." that is hard to fathom.

Doesn’t necessarily mean there were several other hunters with more points.
That’s likely the case, but it’s also possible the eight that drew could all have had 1 entry, because it’s completely random.

if 600 entered, and the average number of LPs for each was 5 for example, that means there were 75,000 entries in the hat. With your 500, that gives you a 0.67 chance of being drawn. Even if the average was 3 LPs (16,200 total entries), with your 500 you had a 3.1% chance