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Re: Straight Talk About 9000 Available O&G Leases
[Re: Big_Country01]
#8551114
03/08/22 04:58 PM
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Joined: Aug 2009
Posts: 4,601
decook
OP
Extreme Tracker
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OP
Extreme Tracker
Joined: Aug 2009
Posts: 4,601 |
No matter how you spin it, production has not dropped enough to justify $5.00/gal diesel in Tx. It has very little to do with supply and demand and everything to do with political policy. RIGHT Big_Country01. My point exactly. Cochise, BOBO, and DannyB, I have something to chew on now. It might still be dim, but the light is beginning to shine. I still haven't hit on my ultimate understanding point yet, but your posts help.
Press for an AMERICAN.
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Re: Straight Talk About 9000 Available O&G Leases
[Re: decook]
#8551119
03/08/22 05:01 PM
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Joined: Apr 2007
Posts: 60,615
BOBO the Clown
kind of a big deal
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kind of a big deal
Joined: Apr 2007
Posts: 60,615 |
No matter how you spin it, production has not dropped enough to justify $5.00/gal diesel in Tx. It has very little to do with supply and demand and everything to do with political policy. RIGHT Big_Country01. My point exactly. Cochise, BOBO, and DannyB, I have something to chew on now. It might still be dim, but the light is beginning to shine. I still haven't hit on my ultimate understanding point yet, but your posts help. I would of never guessed it would go this high this quick. But there is no one at the top publicly trying to do anything about it either This is from TX’s top moderate House Rhino. The former Seal is saying a lot with out saying much
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Re: Straight Talk About 9000 Available O&G Leases
[Re: decook]
#8551125
03/08/22 05:02 PM
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Joined: Sep 2012
Posts: 16,065
Jimbo1
THF Celebrity
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THF Celebrity
Joined: Sep 2012
Posts: 16,065 |
And neither is he going to the border!
FJB - Lets Go Brandon BBB - Bring Back Better Awake - Not Woke!
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Re: Straight Talk About 9000 Available O&G Leases
[Re: Jimbo1]
#8551127
03/08/22 05:04 PM
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Joined: Apr 2007
Posts: 60,615
BOBO the Clown
kind of a big deal
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kind of a big deal
Joined: Apr 2007
Posts: 60,615 |
And neither is he going to the border! Let's be honest he doesn't even know he is Texas
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Re: Straight Talk About 9000 Available O&G Leases
[Re: BOBO the Clown]
#8551131
03/08/22 05:12 PM
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Joined: Jul 2009
Posts: 15
fredwright3
Light Foot
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Light Foot
Joined: Jul 2009
Posts: 15 |
And neither is he going to the border! Let's be honest he doesn't even know he is Texas Very true
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Re: Straight Talk About 9000 Available O&G Leases
[Re: decook]
#8551140
03/08/22 05:19 PM
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Joined: Jul 2012
Posts: 15,802
603Country
THF Celebrity
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Posts: 15,802 |
Speaking as an old oil trader, the source of the large bounce in crude price is most likely the New York Mercantile Exchange. Had I been trading presently, when crude headed upward I’d have bought wet and futures just like most all the traders would have. All the computer driven trading systems would have you going long in futures. Where the hedge would be is a mystery though, but probably outer months on the Merc. Anyway, the Merc drove prices up hard and fast.
When I was trading, I had no care about where the price was, as long as I had value.
I need to discuss this with my youngest daughter, who is also a former oil trader, to see how she views the market and where it’s going and how far. She used to have her own company that sold market information and projections.
So, you ask, how does this work. Well, the Merc (thanks to guys like me) drive the price straight up, which includes prompt month crude and products, and outer months as well. Some of that buying is speculation and some is based on fear of being caught short (not enough crude to run the plant). A refiner buying crude will have to pay the price to get the crude to make the gas and diesel, and they pass the increase on to you. This particularly impacts the refiner/marketers that don’t have their own exploration supply, they are forced to buy at the high prices or shut down. This type action bids the market upwards rapidly. The refiners that have their own captive supply raise prices because they can.
This could all be corrected if the idiot in the White House allowed or influenced an increase in production. Just the knowledge that production was going to actually increase would cause the traders to ease their buying in the fear of being caught long in a falling market. At the moment, this is a market where you want to be long on supply. The moment that psychology changes, prices will fall as fast as they rose. Unfortunately, there isn’t any market info at present or on the horizon that would suggest that you don’t want to be “long”.
People say that it’s all supply/demand. Well, it’s more complicated than that. I always said that 3 things rule market price - fundamentals (true supply versus demand), technicals (what the computers say), and psychologicals (what the traders think). Right now, I think psychologicals are driving price.
Traders make a lot of money if they are good, but pay a price for it. Stress drove me finally to a different livelihood, on the advice of my doctor.
Not my monkeys, not my circus...
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Re: Straight Talk About 9000 Available O&G Leases
[Re: 603Country]
#8551153
03/08/22 05:28 PM
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Joined: Aug 2009
Posts: 4,601
decook
OP
Extreme Tracker
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OP
Extreme Tracker
Joined: Aug 2009
Posts: 4,601 |
603 I think this is the lightbulb I've been looking for. Thank you.
Press for an AMERICAN.
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Re: Straight Talk About 9000 Available O&G Leases
[Re: decook]
#8551172
03/08/22 05:46 PM
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Joined: Jul 2008
Posts: 33,464
bigbob_ftw
Big Sprocket Bob
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Big Sprocket Bob
Joined: Jul 2008
Posts: 33,464 |
that's why when pasky says restarting the xl pipeline won't do anything for prices she is dead wrong. it would have and immediate effect.
Ultra MAGA '24.
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Re: Straight Talk About 9000 Available O&G Leases
[Re: decook]
#8551217
03/08/22 06:35 PM
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Joined: Dec 2008
Posts: 336
brownthunder
Bird Dog
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Bird Dog
Joined: Dec 2008
Posts: 336 |
Cochise in his first post line two, got the process correct, politics are delivered to the American people. cause and effect...... Biden got ahold of the playbook from Obama and the Clintons.
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Re: Straight Talk About 9000 Available O&G Leases
[Re: decook]
#8551243
03/08/22 06:56 PM
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Joined: Dec 2011
Posts: 10
Pumpjack
Light Foot
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Light Foot
Joined: Dec 2011
Posts: 10 |
We Americans have enough oil and gas under our feet and have the know how to produce it to make us energy independent and not dependent on another country but we are being held hostage by an administration that is hell bent on converting us to green energy. What has changed in the past year? The oil and gas is still there that hasn’t changed it seems obvious to me we are being played.
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Re: Straight Talk About 9000 Available O&G Leases
[Re: Pumpjack]
#8551250
03/08/22 07:01 PM
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Joined: Apr 2007
Posts: 60,615
BOBO the Clown
kind of a big deal
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kind of a big deal
Joined: Apr 2007
Posts: 60,615 |
We Americans have enough oil and gas under our feet and have the know how to produce it to make us energy independent and not dependent on another country but we are being held hostage by an administration that is hell bent on converting us to green energy. What has changed in the past year? The oil and gas is still there that hasn’t changed it seems obvious to me we are being played. Be cause liberals would give up sovereignty for a prettier view. Our energy, our food, everything... Hi NAFTA
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Re: Straight Talk About 9000 Available O&G Leases
[Re: Pumpjack]
#8551267
03/08/22 07:08 PM
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Joined: Jul 2012
Posts: 15,802
603Country
THF Celebrity
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THF Celebrity
Joined: Jul 2012
Posts: 15,802 |
I think there is truth in what you believe. I think the reason for allowing gas prices to rise long term was to push us toward electric vehicles. Russia’s actions accelerated the price increase unexpectedly, but this just benefits the administration’s not so secret plan. However, the law of unexpected consequences just might come back and bite them on the butt. Even the liberals are unhappy with inflation and extreme fuel prices. If we get the House and Senate back, we can stop further damage, but whatever new rules they come up with will have to be signed by Mr Liberal Potato Head in the White House.
Not my monkeys, not my circus...
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Re: Straight Talk About 9000 Available O&G Leases
[Re: 603Country]
#8551313
03/08/22 07:38 PM
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Joined: Aug 2009
Posts: 4,601
decook
OP
Extreme Tracker
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OP
Extreme Tracker
Joined: Aug 2009
Posts: 4,601 |
I think there is truth in what you believe. I think the reason for allowing gas prices to rise long term was to push us toward electric vehicles. Russia’s actions accelerated the price increase unexpectedly, but this just benefits the administration’s not so secret plan. However, the law of unexpected consequences just might come back and bite them on the butt. Even the liberals are unhappy with inflation and extreme fuel prices. If we get the House and Senate back, we can stop further damage, but whatever new rules they come up with will have to be signed by Mr Liberal Potato Head in the White House.
Unless a 2/3 majority shoves it where the sun dont shine.
Press for an AMERICAN.
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Re: Straight Talk About 9000 Available O&G Leases
[Re: wp75169]
#8551586
03/09/22 12:58 AM
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Joined: Jul 2013
Posts: 6,077
Wilhunt
THF Trophy Hunter
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THF Trophy Hunter
Joined: Jul 2013
Posts: 6,077 |
I sure don’t know but it was my assumption that they’re not economically viable as stated above. But money can be made at $60 a barrel.
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Re: Straight Talk About 9000 Available O&G Leases
[Re: decook]
#8551763
03/09/22 04:21 AM
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Joined: Dec 2020
Posts: 1,431
Sewer rat
Pro Tracker
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Pro Tracker
Joined: Dec 2020
Posts: 1,431 |
I am in the business of finding oil. Companies hire us to figure out where to drill. I have been doing this since 1994. 2019 was our best year ever. 2021 was our worst year ever. The phones still are not ringing like I would expect them to be with the current prices. Most people I talk to attribute the problems to be lack of capital. The money guys that funded all these projects gave up on oil and are putting their money elsewhere.
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Re: Straight Talk About 9000 Available O&G Leases
[Re: 68rustbucket]
#8551766
03/09/22 04:28 AM
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Joined: May 2006
Posts: 31,058
HWY_MAN
THF Celebrity
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THF Celebrity
Joined: May 2006
Posts: 31,058 |
Maybe those 9000 unused leases are worthless and non productive parcels From what I heard today all of these are unexplored leases, so the 9000 comment is meaningless. One has to ask why haven't the leases been bid on already? That should tell the story.
Yes! A Weatherby does kill them deader.
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Re: Straight Talk About 9000 Available O&G Leases
[Re: BOBO the Clown]
#8551768
03/09/22 04:32 AM
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Joined: May 2006
Posts: 31,058
HWY_MAN
THF Celebrity
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THF Celebrity
Joined: May 2006
Posts: 31,058 |
As soon as we do OPEC will turn up supply to try to get oil prices below our profitably margins causing us to slow production. And that's exactly what they did.
Yes! A Weatherby does kill them deader.
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Re: Straight Talk About 9000 Available O&G Leases
[Re: decook]
#8551771
03/09/22 04:38 AM
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Joined: Jul 2015
Posts: 23,197
Bee'z
The Beedazzler
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The Beedazzler
Joined: Jul 2015
Posts: 23,197 |
They are going to [censored] us on this deal is all that really needs to be said.
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Re: Straight Talk About 9000 Available O&G Leases
[Re: BOBO the Clown]
#8551777
03/09/22 04:45 AM
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Joined: May 2006
Posts: 31,058
HWY_MAN
THF Celebrity
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THF Celebrity
Joined: May 2006
Posts: 31,058 |
Also don't discount a Presidents ability to counter speculation in a speech high lighting that we are about to open unprecedented flood gates to end high prices, and how we are changing regulations to lower costs. Remember when Bush said he was going to open Anwar and end the ban on off shore drilling in 2008? Oil was at 145 dollars a barrel and crashed to 35 by January 2009. Word can make a difference.
Yes! A Weatherby does kill them deader.
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Re: Straight Talk About 9000 Available O&G Leases
[Re: decook]
#8551907
03/09/22 01:49 PM
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Joined: Feb 2021
Posts: 556
SRPI89
Tracker
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Tracker
Joined: Feb 2021
Posts: 556 |
I can offer up my experience with federal OGL’s in New Mexico. I owned and operated several leases (some on fed, some on state and some on fee ground) before selling them off about 5 years ago. I still continue to participate in wells over there, but it’s too tedious from a regulatory perspective for a small guy like me to operate anymore.
Eddy/Lea/Chavez County (I’m only using these because that’s where my direct experience is)
1- Federal leases only need to be nominated, then recognized by the BLM, and sold in an auction style sale. They are 10 year term leases. Additionally, even if the whole section is federal lands, typically they won’t let you buy a section at a time (even if you nominate the whole section) They’ll break it into 1/4 or 1/2 sections. My guess is where the “90,000 unused leases) comes from is a combination of multiple “leases” inside a fed section, federal that were speculatively leases over the last 100 years and not drilled, leases with plugged wells and leases with dry holes. I can 100% promise you there aren’t 90,000 unused leases in “oil country” or in places where we could drill commercially viable wells.
2- The Current Administration and Fed Lands- when oil and gas operators saw Biden’s disastrous energy policy in the campaign speeches, then saw he had a real chance to win, they/we went to work permitting wells. They permitted 5+ years of inventory, because the statutes wouldn’t apply to leases with ongoing operations (permits included). When Biden’s crew got in, they went to work countering this move by shutting down infrastructure, gathering pipeline systems, SWD’s, fresh water sourcing are now almost impossible to get permitted from the state or fed. They also have jurisdiction over much of this on fee land through their required permitting process. This means basically you can’t drill/complete new wells in any place this infrastructure isn’t in place. What is in place is stressed, and there is more demand for its use than there is available capacity/supply.
It’s impossible to drill a well in Eddy or Lea counties (the prolific counties) without having state or fed direct influence, and we know how that influence is being thrown around.
Last edited by SRPI89; 03/09/22 01:50 PM.
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Re: Straight Talk About 9000 Available O&G Leases
[Re: HWY_MAN]
#8551957
03/09/22 02:31 PM
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Joined: Apr 2007
Posts: 60,615
BOBO the Clown
kind of a big deal
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kind of a big deal
Joined: Apr 2007
Posts: 60,615 |
Also don't discount a Presidents ability to counter speculation in a speech high lighting that we are about to open unprecedented flood gates to end high prices, and how we are changing regulations to lower costs. Remember when Bush said he was going to open Anwar and end the ban on off shore drilling in 2008? Oil was at 145 dollars a barrel and crashed to 35 by January 2009. Word can make a difference. Yelp it's that simple.
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Re: Straight Talk About 9000 Available O&G Leases
[Re: decook]
#8552001
03/09/22 03:19 PM
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Joined: Dec 2008
Posts: 41,230
J.G.
THF Celebrity
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THF Celebrity
Joined: Dec 2008
Posts: 41,230 |
Very educational thread. Thanks all!
800 Yard Steel Range Precision Rifle Instruction Memberships and Classes Available
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Re: Straight Talk About 9000 Available O&G Leases
[Re: decook]
#8552010
03/09/22 03:30 PM
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Joined: Apr 2013
Posts: 8,576
freerange
THF Trophy Hunter
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THF Trophy Hunter
Joined: Apr 2013
Posts: 8,576 |
Lots of good info. Thanks to all.
At some point in life its time to quit chasing the pot of gold and just enjoy the rainbow. FR Keep your gratitude higher than your expectations. RWH
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Re: Straight Talk About 9000 Available O&G Leases
[Re: Sewer rat]
#8552115
03/09/22 05:32 PM
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Joined: Apr 2012
Posts: 53
Fishstory
Outdoorsman
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Outdoorsman
Joined: Apr 2012
Posts: 53 |
I am in the business of finding oil. Companies hire us to figure out where to drill. I have been doing this since 1994. 2019 was our best year ever. 2021 was our worst year ever. The phones still are not ringing like I would expect them to be with the current prices. Most people I talk to attribute the problems to be lack of capital. The money guys that funded all these projects gave up on oil and are putting their money elsewhere. This is the biggest issue with domestic production being slow to respond to higher prices. These huge horizontal wells are expensive to drill and it is a lot harder to get funding to do it than before. For public E&P's they are no longer rewarded for high growth projects, they are still being pushed by the market to stay within cash flows and reduce leverage. Oil prices are cyclical and the last couple bust cycles are still fresh in the memories of the investors and lenders who lost their rear ends from some of those highly leveraged players. We are seeing increases in rigs, but its much more measured this time. Lots of fear from the markets about over leveraging to chase the boom only to have OPEC open up and crash prices again like Bobo pointed out.
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Re: Straight Talk About 9000 Available O&G Leases
[Re: decook]
#8556923
03/15/22 04:50 PM
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Joined: Jan 2005
Posts: 1,132
brush_buster
Pro Tracker
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Pro Tracker
Joined: Jan 2005
Posts: 1,132 |
When oil is found in new areas it must be moved to refineries. This administration is anti pipelines so the doubt of new ones being built contributes to the lack of new exploration.
Biden policies are encouraging lending institutions from providing money to oil companies.
Biden canceled ANWAR exploration, drilling on federal lands, and offshore drilling.
Raising taxes on oil companies, and threatening throwing oil executives in jail also has an effect.
Despite Biden’s words, his administration is doing everything it can to slow oil production.
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