Laying here in bed since Monday I’ve had a lot of time to think lol. I’ve got an opportunity to build a couple of homes and to build a spec home or homes. Right now it seems like a good idea lol. Sometimes I tend to overlook the downsides

Take a deep breath.

Lumber prices have never been higher. Seems like that would eat into your profits.

Oh I know. Lumber and concrete both. It would a little. Part of the reason why I’m going to stop flipping for a bit. Obviously building the whole idea would be to factor the pricing in

Despite current conditions, I really think we are going to see a significant downturn in the housing market in 2021 and 2022, regardless of who is in office. I spend a lot of time talking with execs at major banks and institutional investors and most seem to feel the same way. Unless you plan to hold them as rentals, I would not try to "flip" right now, or you have a real chance of being left holding the bag.

Yeah that’s what I was thinking with the specs. I’m way more I interested in the ones who have construction loans lined up

Residential has never interested me, but commercial is screwed for a while now too, if not forever.

I believe you are correct

I wont pretend to know whats going to happen in the future to the economy, but locally the housing market is still strong. Local is San Antonio and surrounding.

JC, may be cheaper to have a doctor remove that hair....

I do have a friend in multi family roofing, they havent slowed much at all though.

I think in most markets outside of Texas you're 100% spot on - however, I think the Texas market within 1.5 hours of the major cities will remain a very hot market for the foreseeable future. Too many people from out of state relocating here. Too many people that were existing residents nearing retirement moving out of the suburbs into commutable distances in rural areas.

Keep building, or start building. The slight price increase of wood to build a home is about 20% of the cost of building a home. The DFW housing market is booming and there is lots of money rolling in, not loans, lots of cash buyers right now.

Ask your banker!

I think that is putting it mildly.

I thought this post was going to be about a rabbit..........

OMG this dumb realtor has clients who want me to buy the lot and build the house and then they will use a VA loan to pay for it when it’s done. Total project $500,000. I told her no lt only no but hell no. I’m not going to be their bank for free for 9 months to year. Especially when they can get a VA so strict ion loan for nothing down and one time close. They did want to do that because they would have to make an interest payment only every month while it’s being built. WTF? Lol

Depends on what market and price point you are building the spec homes. Right now in many markets there is not enough inventory so adding new houses would be a good idea and buyers would like jump on them. A few weeks ago we were one of 8 offers on a house, we offered 4.5% over asking, 20% down with no contigency and we didn't get it. The winning bid was over 10% over asking price. This is in the ~$550-600K range.



Again, what sectors of commercial? Office is going to get hit hard. Many companies realize that their employees can work remotely and they don't need office. Industrial (bulk warehouse) is doing just fine. Many retail landlords have been slowing migrating away from tenants that sell good and going toward services (nail, hair, dental, restaurants, etc). They will see a blip but overall are still doing okay for the most part. Restaurants are hurting bad as are companies that provide products that can easily be purchased online (thanks Amazon).

I have a couple of rentals. One will be sold at the first of the year. It's in Mansfield which is a hot area. Will have to totally refurb to get the right amount of money. Ought to sell quickly since I average a couple of calls per day from flippers/investors.

Flip land.

Buy land if we hit inflation like some say.

Slight price increase!??! Lumber is almost triple right now, IF you can find it. Framing cost is a small percentage of the cost to build a home but when you double that cost it adds quite a bit to the total. Then add delays due to shortages of lumber, composite roofing, appliances and fixtures and you're looking at a house that costs 40% more to build and 50% longer to build.

Anyone got an idea of what the actual lumber cost is in comparison to the value of a residence? My guess is it pretty marginal. You probably pay more for tile than you do the wood.

Lumber cost affects framing, roof decking, cabinets, trim, interior doors, exterior doors, etc. Those things account for about 35% of the cost of construction. Tile accounts for about 2%.

Die with memories. Not dreams.