I wonder if our officials will tell us when we hit herd immunity threshold (two months ago) and when the pandemic is tailing off???

No

no word of this flu after the election. At day 1 you will here nothing more of the kung flu

They will after the election.

Thanks for the post!

Anyone with common sense can see that we are already there. Henny Penny will only prolong it by hiding in her basement and wearing her mask everywhere.

I haven't heard a single report that noted how herd immunity and it alone is what ended the Great Spanish Flu Pandemic. Vaccines simply help the population reach that point much quicker, so it should come as no surprise that enough time has passed so that Mother Nature is now controlling the spread.

But you can get your arse that if Joe Biden wins, herd immunity will suddenly appear as the great solution.

I see the above figure quoted as a justification to say we aren't yet near herd immunity threshold by a lot of 'medical experts'.

What is worrisome to me is the lack of hindsight by many of these experts when faced with a reality that simply didn't match their estimates. Instead of questioning their estimates they instead dismiss reality.

The equation for Herd immunity threshold is 1- 1/r0

So for herd immunity to be 70% then the equation must be 1-.3 = .7. meaning ro would equal 3.33

Now look at the epidemic curves below from the CDC.

The epidemic curve of 3.33 would be even more steep than the 3.2 curve. Meaning the entire pandemic would run its course in 1 month's time with weekly infection rates of over 3.5%. We know this can't be the case since there wasn't a single area in the world in which the pandemic happened in this time frame, not even New York City.

Now look at the curves of r0 1.1 and 2.1 which take months to run the course. This is much closer to reality.

Lets go back to our herd immunity equation and see what the real number should be if it lies somewhere between 1.1 and 2.1

1- 1/1.1 = .1 or 10%
1- 1/2.1= .53 or 53%

So herd immunity using real world epidemic curves gives us a much lower threshold than estimates.

Now lets look at Sweden, which is the closest to 'unmitigated spread', even though they still have less restrictive measures in place to see if my math holds up.

Remember ro around 3 means entire pandemic is complete in a month. Look at Swedens curve. It looks nothing like the epidemic curve of ro 3.

Now lets look at the article. Four months equals 16 weeks. If 15% of the population was infected in a 16 week time frame then we are looking at a peak of 1% infected per week. Go back to the epidemic curves. Is their a curve that resembles this? Yes, look at the ro 1.1 curve. That curve peaks at 2% and the curve spends most of the time around a 1% infection rate.

Since Sweden has peaked with only 15% seroprevalence then we know this the herd immunity threshold for Sweden and we can reverse calculate r0 from the observed herd immunity threshold.

1- 1/r0= .15 then ro would equal 1.17. Which would closely match the curve from our estimations.


The question is why is this basic science being ignored by the experts and officials across the world?



https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0141076820945282

Yep as the EggHeads will be busy burning this country down after "The Trumpster" gets to go another 4.

WHAT WE FOUND
We consulted numerous medical journals, scientific websites, newspaper reports, and interviewed Dr. Peter Rabinowitz, a world-renowned expert in pandemics.

The most commonly-cited example of a country "going for herd immunity" is Sweden. But economically, Sweden saw little benefit from 'staying open,' and both its infection rate and mortality rate dwarf its Nordic neighbors.

In fact, Sweden has suffered 40% more deaths per capita than even the U.S., and Sweden’s current unemployment rate is still the highest in Scandinavia, at 9%.

There are three prominent examples of unintentional coronavirus herd immunity, and the results are grim.

In Guayaquil, Ecuador and Manaus, Brazil, major cities the size of Phoenix, the virus exploded in the spring. Guayaquil’s health care system collapsed, with bodies left on the streets. Manaus’ death rate was three times the rest of Brazil.

Both cities did see a rapid recovery once about 25% of the population got coronavirus, leading some to wonder if that is the magical number. But ethics aside, Dr. Rabinowitz dismisses that.

"I wish there was, but in my opinion, there's no single number. We need to be careful about a new virus we're just beginning to understand. We're still learning about it," said Dr. Rabinowitz.

The third example of unintentional herd immunity is near San Francisco at the San Quentin Prison, where outbreaks left almost 70% of the prisoners and staff with coronavirus. The results included a death rate 15 times higher than the national average.

Extrapolate that to the U.S. population at large, and “going for herd immunity” equates to at least 2.5 million deaths – more than twice the number of all the Americans killed in all the wars since our country was founded. That's not factoring in non-lethal outcomes like permanent brain, lung or kidney damage.

The Lancet, arguably the world’s most prominent medical journal, published a scientific study this summer that concluded, “any proposed approach to achieve herd immunity through natural infection is not only highly unethical but also unachievable.”

(LINK)

The worst is over, and the virus is on the way out. The vaccine is petty much useless now.

I agree....

The company my wife works for was worried about a third covid spike due to labor day weekend. I told her it would be more like a bump, and deaths would be minimal. I guess we'll see in another week.

Texas has already showed herd immunity through natural infection is achievable and not nearly as painful as many of those journals had proposed. There are also multiple other states and regions who have done the same.

The experts have a hard time admitting their poor modeling results.

And oddly they don't like to admit herd immunity through natural infection was the only proposed approach in the entire world. There is no other approach available when there aren't any pharmaceutical interventions.

It is what it is...... facts no longer relevant.......manipulation rules the day.........thanks for the truth Matt........

It is concerning how little the medical profession has acknowledged their own faults in their models. It is also concerning for no one to admit that herd immunity has always been the plan. You can look back at the CDC 2007 Pandemic Planning guide to see that herd immunity was the only proposed approach.

But yes, facts are no longer relevant. Look at my other post comparing the length of mitigation efforts during the Spanish flu pandemic and today. From the CDC planning guide there is no reason for mitigation efforts to last as long as they have after the pandemic has swept through an area.

This is the time when people should be out and about getting the economy back on track. Instead we are wasting these valuable intervals of periods of low infectivity for no logical reason.

I think the virus has mutated and is less deadly than when it first hit Washington state and NYC.

Chinese scientist posts smoking gun evidence that CV19 came from a lab..

https://twitter.com/LiMengYAN119?s=21

I've been clear from day one. I'm in the at risk category. Open it backup. I will go. First. I've only worn one mast. It was given to me when I got my. Hair cut in March.

I think we just protect the sick a lot better. The system failed to protect the most vulnerable. Washington i could understand, but New York should of learned from the case study that was Washington st nursing homes.

Remember all the flack I caught for saying "rip the bandaid off lets go"

Ahhh good times.

You and me.

A doctor in Italy said that a few months ago. He said it's gotten weaker since February, at least in Italy.

The people that remain are tougher.