Hunting the Davy Crockett Forest for years, I have seen fewer and fewer deer. Apparently that is about the same story for many hunters, based on the number of deer taken to processing plants. Even so, TPWD survey numbers show the deer herd growing fairly dramatically. What surprised me, too, was the declining fawn numbers each year. Fawn survival rate for the area where I hunt went from 82% in 2005 to 18% in 2011.

If those numbers are true, isn't hunting going to be very slow for a long time to come?

2011 was a drought year everywhere in the state. Not sure where you were at then but it was the major reason for low fawn crops.

i am assuming those are those tpwd fawn numbers?

Those are the numbers TPWD gave me. The low fawn rates have been dwindling since 2005. Here's the story: The east texas Deer herd: Is it time to worry?
The years preceeding 2011 were low too.

those numbers just dont make sense to me, i know they addressed the relationship between them a little, but they still dont make sense. if it were over a shorter period of time i think it could be explained away to bad surveys or something, but for them both to keep their trends over 7 seasons just dont seem right.

I feel the same way. The low fawn numbers explains why sightings and harvest are down.

It is due to the AR's

if they would have just had the fawn #'s in the story it would be hard to believe that they have dropped that much, but believable with the drought and possibility of bad surveys...but then to tell me that the deer per acre has almost doubled over that same period is crazy.

uh oh.....

But they do tell part of the reasons though...

You figure out what a fawn is in a spotlight...

Surveys don't mean jack... look at the number of deer/1000 acres... its going up... the fawns are there... can't be any other way for deer to get there...

i am for AR's but will admit, the last 2-3 weeks of the season, when the deer finally started showing up steadily in the daylight, all i saw were does, fawns, and no bucks over 2.5, up to 8 of them at one time. two of the 4 years olds have trickled back in the last few weeks, but the better ones are still MIA.

i only know of one (supposedly) legal buck and one spike that were taken around me, unless the big ones were taken and word just never got out.

Don't put too much faith in statistics.

x2
exactly anyone can throw numbers out there

"Figures don't lie but liars make figures"

If you know your woods, you know what is happening.

Marc

73.6% of all statistics are made up.

It's been dry since Rita came through. Have also gotten freezes in April (and snow) several of those years to kill new growth only to have it burn up the next month. DCNF has to be sitting around 12:1...it's what happens when you try to manage a herd and have no clue what actually gets shot.

.

LMAO

IMO, it was the MASSIVE acorn crop this year that made it easy for deer to find food. During the last week or two of the season after most of the acorns had either been eaten or spoiled, deer sightings seemed to recover to the norm. Unfortuantely (or fortunately for the deer), this was when many of the hunters had given up and started doing other things.

We had very high fawn crop in 2011 but very low in 2012.

Makes sense to me since most does couldn't reach full term with such a bad 2011.

Does where in very bad shape after 2011 rut.