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Feb 7th, 2025
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 They are not coming
#3811681
12/03/12 08:55 PM
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Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 11,833
wal1809
OP
THF Celebrity
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OP
THF Celebrity
Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 11,833 |
We can kiss the beginning of the split and most of the rest of the season. There is nothing in the future to make them move at least the 10 day future.
http://www.weather.com/weather/tenday/Billings+MO+USMO0068:1:US
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Re: They are not coming
[Re: wal1809]
#3811693
12/03/12 08:58 PM
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Joined: Feb 2007
Posts: 7,850
kdub
THF Trophy Hunter
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THF Trophy Hunter
Joined: Feb 2007
Posts: 7,850 |
There is hope if you've got weekdays off after the opener.
Mon
Dec 10
60°
35°
Few Showers
Chance of rain:
30%Wind:
NNW at 14 mph DetailsTue
Dec 11
57°
36°
Partly Cloudy
Chance of rain:
0%Wind:
NNW at 16 mph DetailsWed
Dec 12
52°
33°
Mostly Cloudy
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Re: They are not coming
[Re: wal1809]
#3811701
12/03/12 08:59 PM
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Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 646
Twisted Mallard HC
Tracker
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Tracker
Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 646 |
I agree! I am afraid if we dont get some rain soon in Texas and Oklahoma that birds maybe slidding to the east this year. It is very very dry in Oklahoma and Texas. Plus, if we dont get extreme cold up North birds will not make it down in big numbers...
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Re: They are not coming
[Re: Twisted Mallard HC]
#3811733
12/03/12 09:07 PM
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Joined: Dec 2008
Posts: 708
Sinkey
Tracker
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Tracker
Joined: Dec 2008
Posts: 708 |
If we dont get any rain soon, it doesnt matter if they come!
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Re: They are not coming
[Re: Sinkey]
#3811749
12/03/12 09:13 PM
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Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 11,833
wal1809
OP
THF Celebrity
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OP
THF Celebrity
Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 11,833 |
It doesn't matter what happens here. If it does not happen up there, then they are not going to leave. They have sunny beach weather in Montana, Wyoming and the Dakotas. If we can get a horrible arctic blast in those states then we are set for a record amount of ducks.
Last edited by WAL1809; 12/03/12 09:14 PM.
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Re: They are not coming
[Re: Sinkey]
#3811759
12/03/12 09:15 PM
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Joined: Sep 2008
Posts: 6,718
Cochise
THF Trophy Hunter
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THF Trophy Hunter
Joined: Sep 2008
Posts: 6,718 |
The NWS in Ft. Worth is singing a different tune. They are saying lows in the 20s, highs mid 30s to low 40s by Tuesday of next week. Also not ruling out frozen precip. at the time. Could be interesting if it holds true. "HOWEVER...BIG CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY AS THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE THAT HAS MADE ITS HOME OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA FOR THE LAST 2 WEEKS GETS KICKED EASTWARD AND ONSHORE BY THE WEEKEND. AS THE TROUGH HEADS EAST ACROSS THE CONUS...IT WILL UNLEASH ARCTIC AIR THAT HAS BEEN BOTTLED UP OVER WESTERN CANADA FOR MOST OF NOVEMBER. THIS UPPER PATTERN IS NOT ANYTHING SPECIAL OR UNIQUE FOR COLD AIR INTRUSIONS...SO RECORD COLD IS OUT OF THE QUESTION. HOWEVER THE AIR THE TROUGH TAPS INTO IS FAIRLY COLD AND WILL CAUSE A QUICK ARRIVAL OF WINTER TYPE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 00Z GFS DIGS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY INTO THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST WHICH HOLDS UP THE FRONT ABOUT A DAY BUT WOULD INCREASE THE CHANCE OF FROZEN PRECIP. AS OF NOW THE 00Z GFS IS THE OUTLIER...AND THE ECMWF OFFERS A GOOD COMPROMISE OF 500MB PATTERNS SHOWN BY THE UKMET...CANADIAN...AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. SO ALL OF THIS POINTS TO THE COLD FRONT ARRIVING MONDAY...12-24 HOURS FASTER THAN THE CURRENT 00Z GFS. WINTER PRECIP CANT BE RULED OUT...BUT RIGHT NOW IT IS A VERY LOW PROBABILITY EVENT. EITHER WAY...TEMPS WILL FALL DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 20S BY TUESDAY MORNING...AND HIGHS TUESDAY LIKELY STUCK IN THE 30S OR 40S. NWS
Last edited by Cochise; 12/03/12 09:20 PM.
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Re: They are not coming
[Re: Cochise]
#3811782
12/03/12 09:20 PM
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Joined: Jan 2010
Posts: 660
aggiegadwall
Tracker
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Tracker
Joined: Jan 2010
Posts: 660 |
And the world is gonna end tomorrow too!!
All we can do is make the best of what the good lord gives us! I make a living off this and that's all we can do.
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Re: They are not coming
[Re: Cochise]
#3811785
12/03/12 09:20 PM
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Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 11,833
wal1809
OP
THF Celebrity
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OP
THF Celebrity
Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 11,833 |
Well I hope they are right. But we still need Those key states to get below and stay below freezing to ice up the food sources in the north. If that doesn't happen soon it does not matter how cold it will be here. We need the weather up there, not here.
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Re: They are not coming
[Re: wal1809]
#3811839
12/03/12 09:36 PM
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Joined: Jul 2011
Posts: 749
Homey da Clown
CTJ
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CTJ
Joined: Jul 2011
Posts: 749 |
As far as seeing green, and I mean GREEN, not just a few bunches here and there...yeah, you can kiss that goodbye for Dec. Gonna be Jan if at all we see a good push of mallards. I am predicting an early push back from the south this year. Either way I gots a cr@pload of gads in my back pocket but would rather chase and shoot green.
  R & B Outdoors Mud Buddy motors/accessories Gator Trax boats (512) 826-6200 www.rboutdoors.com
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Re: They are not coming
[Re: Homey da Clown]
#3812099
12/03/12 10:55 PM
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Joined: Jun 2005
Posts: 2,561
Cappy_TX
Veteran Tracker
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Veteran Tracker
Joined: Jun 2005
Posts: 2,561 |
The way I read it ... from SD to N TX, starting around the 20th of this month, most of the areas in the Dakotas and Nebraska that are now holding birds will either be frozen out or the ground feed covered over. If we get some decent rain before Xmas, then I think we will see a strong last 35 days of this season. Sioux Fall SD http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/sioux-falls-sd/57103/december-weather/330686Kearney, NE http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/kearney-ne/68847/december-weather/334367Wichita, KS http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/wichita-ks/67202/december-weather/348426Tulsa, OK http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/tulsa-ok/74103/december-weather/350144Ivanhoe, TX http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/ivanhoe-tx/75447/december-weather/2223664
Cappy ... At my side for thirteen years, in my heart forever. 
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Re: They are not coming
[Re: Cappy_TX]
#3812172
12/03/12 11:17 PM
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Joined: Nov 2009
Posts: 610
GreyDuck
Tracker
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Tracker
Joined: Nov 2009
Posts: 610 |
Its not going to matter one bit regarding the cold weather if the state of Texas does not get rain.
Sure you will get a flight of birds but with the poor habitat and little water, they will not stick around long.
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Re: They are not coming
[Re: Cappy_TX]
#3812175
12/03/12 11:18 PM
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Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 11,833
wal1809
OP
THF Celebrity
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OP
THF Celebrity
Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 11,833 |
Cappy that is the best we can do at this point. I do believe when the main migration starts moving, they are going to flood us.
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Re: They are not coming
[Re: wal1809]
#3812242
12/03/12 11:42 PM
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Joined: Jun 2011
Posts: 629
Astater
Tracker
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Tracker
Joined: Jun 2011
Posts: 629 |
I'm seeing Mallards and Pintails EVERYWHERE!!! But I'm in Northern California on business... 
The things we do for ducks...
NRA Life Member
Arkansas Game and Fish Commission Lifetime License/Member
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Re: They are not coming
[Re: Astater]
#3812311
12/04/12 12:00 AM
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Joined: Jan 2010
Posts: 23,839
beaversnipe
THF Celebrity
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THF Celebrity
Joined: Jan 2010
Posts: 23,839 |
I shot limits on 6 out of 7 hunts prior to the split and plan to do so on second split.
Whatever it takes
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Re: They are not coming
[Re: beaversnipe]
#3812326
12/04/12 12:05 AM
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Joined: Jan 2011
Posts: 981
scubaarchery
Tracker
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Tracker
Joined: Jan 2011
Posts: 981 |
Either way, I am still hunting. I still love watching the sun rise, hearing the wings before legal, hanging out with the dog and my friends and picking up a few birds. Cheaper than therapy although all things considered, not by much 
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Re: They are not coming
[Re: scubaarchery]
#3812375
12/04/12 12:23 AM
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Joined: Sep 2009
Posts: 5,412
Pittstate
THF Trophy Hunter
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THF Trophy Hunter
Joined: Sep 2009
Posts: 5,412 |
I just got back from kansas and drove through oklahoma on the way back. There are tons of ducks and geese in Kansas. We limited both days I hunted. And, every pond on I-35 in Kansas/Oklahoma is holding birds.....the little front on Monday is going to bring in new birds, plus we had a small front last week that brought down some. It should be good on Saturday, then Monday and Tuesday.
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Re: They are not coming
[Re: Pittstate]
#3812408
12/04/12 12:35 AM
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Joined: Sep 2004
Posts: 571
bownut
Tracker
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Tracker
Joined: Sep 2004
Posts: 571 |
I know people hunting tanks want the rain but I'm praying for no rain. Our hunting gets better with less tanks holding water. I just wish we had some colder temps.
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Re: They are not coming
[Re: bownut]
#3812471
12/04/12 12:53 AM
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Joined: Jul 2010
Posts: 446
DMOB52
Bird Dog
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Bird Dog
Joined: Jul 2010
Posts: 446 |
I have plenty of water right now just need the birds.
"Cut Em"
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Re: They are not coming
[Re: DMOB52]
#3812604
12/04/12 01:28 AM
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Joined: Aug 2010
Posts: 1,833
mohunter
Pro Tracker
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Pro Tracker
Joined: Aug 2010
Posts: 1,833 |
I agree the season's a bust, everyone find a new hobby for the year, go back to watching Duck Dynasty.
We go through the same talk every year, it's either no water, not cold enough, reverse migration, El nino, or some other issue.
The fact is I and most of you will kill about 10-20 percent more or less ducks than the year before based on each year's conditions.
I was extremely impressed with the first split and killed several limits of green and pintail the last week of the split which was a very big suprise to me but they showed up, we could not even find many grey ducks which is why we shot one on one hunt just because we were suprised to see one.
Looking forward to the challenge of the second split.
Good luck to everyone.
Last edited by mohunter; 12/04/12 01:33 AM.
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Re: They are not coming
[Re: mohunter]
#3813060
12/04/12 03:21 AM
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Joined: Aug 2011
Posts: 132
madmac
Woodsman
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Woodsman
Joined: Aug 2011
Posts: 132 |
netexas i am in good shape on water just need some cold fronts
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Re: They are not coming
[Re: madmac]
#3813094
12/04/12 03:30 AM
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Joined: Sep 2009
Posts: 1,191
Water Turkey2
Pro Tracker
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Pro Tracker
Joined: Sep 2009
Posts: 1,191 |
Last week of the season we'll get cold and rain.....
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Re: They are not coming
[Re: Cochise]
#3813193
12/04/12 04:00 AM
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Joined: May 2010
Posts: 12,988
hoof n wings
THF Celebrity
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THF Celebrity
Joined: May 2010
Posts: 12,988 |
It will have to hit after Monday.... Tonight Partly cloudy, with a low around 55. South southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west northwest after midnight. Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 71. North northwest wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Tuesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 44. North wind 5 to 15 mph. Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 68. North wind around 5 mph becoming east in the afternoon. Wednesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 47. South southeast wind around 5 mph. Thursday Mostly sunny, with a high near 74. South southeast wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Thursday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. South wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Friday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 73. South southwest wind 5 to 15 mph. Friday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. South wind 5 to 10 mph. Saturday Partly sunny, with a high near 75. Saturday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56. Sunday Partly sunny, with a high near 74. Sunday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 55. Monday A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 67. The NWS in Ft. Worth is singing a different tune. They are saying lows in the 20s, highs mid 30s to low 40s by Tuesday of next week. Also not ruling out frozen precip. at the time. Could be interesting if it holds true. "HOWEVER...BIG CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY AS THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE THAT HAS MADE ITS HOME OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA FOR THE LAST 2 WEEKS GETS KICKED EASTWARD AND ONSHORE BY THE WEEKEND. AS THE TROUGH HEADS EAST ACROSS THE CONUS...IT WILL UNLEASH ARCTIC AIR THAT HAS BEEN BOTTLED UP OVER WESTERN CANADA FOR MOST OF NOVEMBER. THIS UPPER PATTERN IS NOT ANYTHING SPECIAL OR UNIQUE FOR COLD AIR INTRUSIONS...SO RECORD COLD IS OUT OF THE QUESTION. HOWEVER THE AIR THE TROUGH TAPS INTO IS FAIRLY COLD AND WILL CAUSE A QUICK ARRIVAL OF WINTER TYPE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 00Z GFS DIGS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY INTO THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST WHICH HOLDS UP THE FRONT ABOUT A DAY BUT WOULD INCREASE THE CHANCE OF FROZEN PRECIP. AS OF NOW THE 00Z GFS IS THE OUTLIER...AND THE ECMWF OFFERS A GOOD COMPROMISE OF 500MB PATTERNS SHOWN BY THE UKMET...CANADIAN...AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. SO ALL OF THIS POINTS TO THE COLD FRONT ARRIVING MONDAY...12-24 HOURS FASTER THAN THE CURRENT 00Z GFS. WINTER PRECIP CANT BE RULED OUT...BUT RIGHT NOW IT IS A VERY LOW PROBABILITY EVENT. EITHER WAY...TEMPS WILL FALL DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 20S BY TUESDAY MORNING...AND HIGHS TUESDAY LIKELY STUCK IN THE 30S OR 40S. NWS
I'd ask him if he's pregnant. He missed a s__tload of periods. I'll take "things that look like a uterus" for $200 Alex.
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