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Re: Bucks getting cheaper?
[Re: don k]
#6401465
08/10/16 03:43 AM
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Joined: Mar 2012
Posts: 21,271
SniperRAB
THF Celebrity
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Well Good Deal... Seems the markets having the "Ping Pong" effect we have seen for years... J Lindsey said they are buying with a "frenzy" HF is alive and prospering
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Re: Bucks getting cheaper?
[Re: don k]
#6401502
08/10/16 04:07 AM
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Joined: Feb 2012
Posts: 2,869
Cow_doc.308
Veteran Tracker
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I'm far from an economist or an expert on the deer business, but I feel like 2 things have hurt deer sales this year....oil prices and uncertainty over CWD testing regs.
Lots of hunts are bought by companies tied to oil industry and a fair number of ranches are owned by people in the oil industry.
CWD live testing regs still aren't officially official I don't think. I know I've been testing some though and so have a bunch of others. I talked to the lab today. What used to be a 7-10 day turn around is now 4-5 weeks. Got some folks sweating over if they'll have what they need to move deer in time.
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Re: Bucks getting cheaper?
[Re: Nogalus Prairie]
#6401535
08/10/16 04:54 AM
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Joined: Jul 2013
Posts: 7,179
therancher
THF Trophy Hunter
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I will bet anyone HF places won't suffer any more or less than low fence places. Let me know when you figure out how much $ you're comfortable losing. "We will see. I think it will change - and is already doing so. A "shift away" from them will be reflected in the market." You're the one that made the bold statement. I just offered a friendly wager. _________________________
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Re: Bucks getting cheaper?
[Re: Cow_doc.308]
#6401537
08/10/16 04:57 AM
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Joined: Jul 2013
Posts: 7,179
therancher
THF Trophy Hunter
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I'm far from an economist or an expert on the deer business, but I feel like 2 things have hurt deer sales this year....oil prices and uncertainty over CWD testing regs.
Lots of hunts are bought by companies tied to oil industry and a fair number of ranches are owned by people in the oil industry.
CWD live testing regs still aren't officially official I don't think. I know I've been testing some though and so have a bunch of others. I talked to the lab today. What used to be a 7-10 day turn around is now 4-5 weeks. Got some folks sweating over if they'll have what they need to move deer in time. The big players in breeding aren't going to be affected by cost or turnaround. It's the middle and little guy that are dropping out.
Crotchety old bastidge
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Re: Bucks getting cheaper?
[Re: don k]
#6401742
08/10/16 01:27 PM
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Joined: Aug 2008
Posts: 14,960
don k
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I would venture to say that the majority of places that are now HF and those that will be are because of two things. One is that the person that HF's is going to raise Exotics. Two is because of neighbors.
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Re: Bucks getting cheaper?
[Re: don k]
#6401805
08/10/16 02:11 PM
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Joined: Jul 2013
Posts: 7,179
therancher
THF Trophy Hunter
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It's as easy as asking a fencing co what the wait time is. 6 months or more in my areas. Some will tell you they can get to it sooner. But typically they're lying.
Crotchety old bastidge
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Re: Bucks getting cheaper?
[Re: don k]
#6401823
08/10/16 02:23 PM
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Joined: Aug 2011
Posts: 1,685
bp3
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Can shoot a grain fed steer for a lot less money and a lot better eating.
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Re: Bucks getting cheaper?
[Re: bp3]
#6401833
08/10/16 02:30 PM
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Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 28,032
Navasot
Hollywood
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Hollywood
Joined: Sep 2011
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Can shoot a grain fed steer for a lot less money and a lot better eating. Ill take venison over beef anyday. but yes quantity to $ cattle make a good deal
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Re: Bucks getting cheaper?
[Re: don k]
#6401882
08/10/16 02:57 PM
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Joined: Aug 2010
Posts: 60,296
stxranchman
Obie Juan Kenobi
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Obie Juan Kenobi
Joined: Aug 2010
Posts: 60,296 |
The price one is willing to pay depends on what that person is looking for in a hunt. That is their choice, always has been and always will be. I don't see prices changing anymore today than they have in the past. Nothing is getting cheaper these days.
Are idiots multiplying faster than normal people?
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Re: Bucks getting cheaper?
[Re: stxranchman]
#6402095
08/10/16 05:00 PM
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Joined: Nov 2010
Posts: 27,091
Nogalus Prairie
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The price one is willing to pay depends on what that person is looking for in a hunt. That is their choice, always has been and always will be. I don't see prices changing anymore today than they have in the past. Nothing is getting cheaper these days. Actually, the prices for the genetically/nutritionally enhanced megabucks are way cheaper than they used to be.
Last edited by Nogalus Prairie; 08/10/16 05:00 PM.
I learned long ago you can't reason someone out of something they don't reason themselves into.
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Re: Bucks getting cheaper?
[Re: don k]
#6402151
08/10/16 05:27 PM
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Joined: Nov 2010
Posts: 27,091
Nogalus Prairie
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IMO the trend is not analogous to the oil & gas cycles because the major driver in that cycle has been/is supply (at least to date). Folks still need gas and oil.
The driver for the big bucks has been/is demand. Folks don't need big bucks. I believe attitudes are changing and will continue to change. Therefore, I believe that demand will stabilize at some point and supply will have to necessarily change to adapt. The good businessmen will adapt and survive, the not-so-good ones will not.
In other words, there will always be some demand for artificially bred megabucks and there will always be some demand for HF hunts of different types - but IMO that demand is lessening and will find its floor as time passes. Time will tell where that floor will be.
HF hunting will never go away unless it is made illegal for some reason. I do not see that happening in Texas - certainly not across the board.
I learned long ago you can't reason someone out of something they don't reason themselves into.
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Re: Bucks getting cheaper?
[Re: Nogalus Prairie]
#6403214
08/11/16 05:33 AM
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Joined: Jan 2012
Posts: 29,177
TXHOGSLAYER
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IMO it's a combination of all the above factors. I think the oversaturation of breeders combined with the stigma/issues associated with HF deer increasing over time delivered serious body blows, and the publicity/pressure/new restrictions over disease transmission will likely be the knockout blow.
There certainly are places where monster deer can be taken consistently and rather easily LF, but the number of them pales in comparison to the thousands of HF places where it can be done.
Whatever your personal stance on them, I just think many people in general are growing tired of the HF stuff.... We have seen a general shift away from high fence properties in general although hf places are still selling very well. That will never change although with today's management you can kill bucks that on lf places that wouldn't have been possible 15 years ago We will see. I think it will change - and is already doing so. A "shift away" from them will be reflected in the market. Says the guy in the glass house.
LETS GO BRANDON
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Re: Bucks getting cheaper?
[Re: TXHOGSLAYER]
#6403399
08/11/16 01:57 PM
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Joined: Nov 2010
Posts: 27,091
Nogalus Prairie
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IMO it's a combination of all the above factors. I think the oversaturation of breeders combined with the stigma/issues associated with HF deer increasing over time delivered serious body blows, and the publicity/pressure/new restrictions over disease transmission will likely be the knockout blow.
There certainly are places where monster deer can be taken consistently and rather easily LF, but the number of them pales in comparison to the thousands of HF places where it can be done.
Whatever your personal stance on them, I just think many people in general are growing tired of the HF stuff.... We have seen a general shift away from high fence properties in general although hf places are still selling very well. That will never change although with today's management you can kill bucks that on lf places that wouldn't have been possible 15 years ago We will see. I think it will change - and is already doing so. A "shift away" from them will be reflected in the market. Says the guy in the glass house. If form holds, your next post will accuse me of trolling.
I learned long ago you can't reason someone out of something they don't reason themselves into.
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Re: Bucks getting cheaper?
[Re: Nogalus Prairie]
#6403648
08/11/16 05:16 PM
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Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 32,092
txtrophy85
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The price one is willing to pay depends on what that person is looking for in a hunt. That is their choice, always has been and always will be. I don't see prices changing anymore today than they have in the past. Nothing is getting cheaper these days. Actually, the prices for the genetically/nutritionally enhanced megabucks are way cheaper than they used to be. It's cheaper to shoot a bigger deer now than it used to be because there are more of them. Kinda like when flatscreen tv's came out. I've seen 170" deer advertised for $7500
For it is not the quarry that we truly seek, but the adventure.
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Re: Bucks getting cheaper?
[Re: txtrophy85]
#6403697
08/11/16 05:43 PM
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Joined: Jul 2013
Posts: 7,179
therancher
THF Trophy Hunter
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Posts: 7,179 |
The price one is willing to pay depends on what that person is looking for in a hunt. That is their choice, always has been and always will be. I don't see prices changing anymore today than they have in the past. Nothing is getting cheaper these days. Actually, the prices for the genetically/nutritionally enhanced megabucks are way cheaper than they used to be. It's cheaper to shoot a bigger deer now than it used to be because there are more of them. Kinda like when flatscreen tv's came out. I've seen 170" deer advertised for $7500 Is that supposed to be high or low?
Crotchety old bastidge
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Re: Bucks getting cheaper?
[Re: PMK]
#6403714
08/11/16 05:55 PM
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Joined: Mar 2015
Posts: 1,146
Matpk
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Re: Bucks getting cheaper?
[Re: don k]
#6404200
08/11/16 11:38 PM
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Joined: Jan 2008
Posts: 1,107
batman
Pro Tracker
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There's a post in the outfitter section for up to 200" for $4500. Says most will be 170". Selling deer ain't what it used to be.
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Re: Bucks getting cheaper?
[Re: therancher]
#6404621
08/12/16 10:47 AM
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Joined: Aug 2010
Posts: 60,296
stxranchman
Obie Juan Kenobi
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Obie Juan Kenobi
Joined: Aug 2010
Posts: 60,296 |
The price one is willing to pay depends on what that person is looking for in a hunt. That is their choice, always has been and always will be. I don't see prices changing anymore today than they have in the past. Nothing is getting cheaper these days. Actually, the prices for the genetically/nutritionally enhanced megabucks are way cheaper than they used to be. It's cheaper to shoot a bigger deer now than it used to be because there are more of them. Kinda like when flatscreen tv's came out. I've seen 170" deer advertised for $7500 Is that supposed to be high or low? It would be neither if the landowner is getting that for a hunt and the hunter is paying it. That would make the correct asking price in their situation. Every hunting situation is different. Those who are over priced and want to sell hunts will either drop their prices or not sell as many hunts. Those that have been in-line or below others with their prices will always stay booked on hunts. We all know there is more to a price of a hunt than just the animal. The way hunts are priced have always been like that, some in-line and some over priced. The hunts are priced one way or the other for a reason. Some manage for numbers of mature animals and limit/adjust their hunts each year while others just sell the same "x" number of hunts every year. One place may place more value on the deer without food/lodging while the next might place more value on the hunt, accommodations/ food/lodging, and the deer as a package.
Are idiots multiplying faster than normal people?
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Re: Bucks getting cheaper?
[Re: don k]
#6404677
08/12/16 12:14 PM
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Joined: Aug 2008
Posts: 14,960
don k
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Very true Ranchman. I sell hunts every year not to make any money but to remove X amount and also to help pay for feeding my Ibex. I would think after seeing what it cost in time and price of feed trying to sell WT hunts and make any real money out of it would be tough. I am sure at one time when the captive breeding started the sky was the limit in what could be charged. Now that the market is saturated with those deer supply and demand comes into play. Also everyone knows that deer like some of these are not running around in the wild and you can't with any honesty say what a tough hunt it was. But I also believe the down turn of the oil and gas industry has had quite a bit of effect on it. I know for a fact it did for me when we did it for a living back in the 80's.
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Re: Bucks getting cheaper?
[Re: don k]
#6404777
08/12/16 01:28 PM
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Joined: Aug 2014
Posts: 2,136
EddieWalker
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I've noticed whitetails being offered for lower prices and associated it with the same thing happening with different animals in South Africa. Sable and Cape Buffalo are now being advertised at thousands of dollars less then what they where going for a few years ago. In my opinion, I feel it's because the world economy is flat and fewer people are spending the money they used to. At the same time, outfitters and land owners have increased their herds and are losing money feeding them. Supply and Demand. The drop in oil has caused a lot of big spenders to hunker down and wait it out.
When Saudi Arabia stops dumping oil on the market, and Iran runs out of US money, the price of oil will go back up and spending by those in the oil industry will increase again. I think the down turn is going to continue for another year at least.
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Re: Bucks getting cheaper?
[Re: don k]
#6404880
08/12/16 02:23 PM
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Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 32,092
txtrophy85
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Also whitetail in general may be losing popularity.
I have no desire to pay to shoot a whitetail but I will pay to shoot a mule deer or elk. I know many other people who feel the same way who have no problem affording high end package hunts.
Hunters can only shoot so many whitetail before they want to hunt something else
For it is not the quarry that we truly seek, but the adventure.
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Re: Bucks getting cheaper?
[Re: txtrophy85]
#6405712
08/12/16 09:11 PM
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Joined: Aug 2010
Posts: 60,296
stxranchman
Obie Juan Kenobi
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Obie Juan Kenobi
Joined: Aug 2010
Posts: 60,296 |
Also whitetail in general may be losing popularity.
I have no desire to pay to shoot a whitetail but I will pay to shoot a mule deer or elk. I know many other people who feel the same way who have no problem affording high end package hunts.
Hunters can only shoot so many whitetail before they want to hunt something else Really? Where exactly do I fit into that statement?
Are idiots multiplying faster than normal people?
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Re: Bucks getting cheaper?
[Re: 5Redman8]
#6408998
08/15/16 05:01 PM
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Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 974
bossbowman
Tracker
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Tracker
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Hope it plummets....better sell before TPWD shuts em down Yep, lot of uncertainty in that industry right now...
Last edited by bossbowman; 08/15/16 05:02 PM.
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Re: Bucks getting cheaper?
[Re: bossbowman]
#6409030
08/15/16 05:34 PM
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Joined: May 2016
Posts: 197
ETXRaider
Woodsman
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Woodsman
Joined: May 2016
Posts: 197 |
Hope it plummets....better sell before TPWD shuts em down Yep, lot of uncertainty in that industry right now... Why hope that it plummets?
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Re: Bucks getting cheaper?
[Re: txtrophy85]
#6409064
08/15/16 05:56 PM
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Joined: Dec 2014
Posts: 5,067
titan2232
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Also whitetail in general may be losing popularity.
I have no desire to pay to shoot a whitetail but I will pay to shoot a mule deer or elk. I know many other people who feel the same way who have no problem affording high end package hunts.
Hunters can only shoot so many whitetail before they want to hunt something else Heck no
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