This is the 5th year of terrible duck hunting in North Texas. I started seeing it happen when the peanut farms around Whitney sold to the gravel pits. Now that they have turned all the rice fields into parking lots around the Katy area there is no reason for the ducks to come down the middle of Texas in November. Its the same reason the snow geese stopped coming in November. To make matters worse I heard that one of the states above us (don't remember which one) changed their "baiting laws" to allow more agricultural grain to be left in the fields to be hunted over. The ducks that do come down the center of Texas are coming after the season is over because they have plenty to eat north of us. By the time those fields are either depleted or the grain has rotted our season is over. About a week after our season ended I saw the ponds around me fill up with ducks. Same thing with the lake. I am a full time Striper guide, so I am on the lake several mornings each week throughout the winter. During the season I saw very few ducks flying over. A week after the season ended I saw "V" after "V" flying over the lake.

TPWD needs to push duck season back one month. Instead of starting it in November, duck season needs to start in December and run through the end of February. If they don't move it back I don't see the point in duck hunting in Texas any more. I shot 3 ducks this season. Three ducks is not worth the effort or the expense to me. I would rather save the money and use it to take 1 good duck hunting trip to Kansas or Arkansas.

The federal guidelines that states must follow dtate all duck seasons must end Jan 31st. You see more ducks after the season, because they are no longer being hunted and come out of the refuges and non hunted places they have found refuge in. By the end of January, for the most part, ducks are already heading north again. We always get a shot of early bluewings headed up from Mexico right at the end of Jan. The problem is fewer ducks and too much pressed.
Also, have friends that hunt OK, arkyland and KS. All of them were hurting like we were for ducks.

If Texas can adjust their own conservation season for geese, then I'm sure they could find a work around for duck season. If they don't then they are going to see revenue taper off from duck hunters, because I know I'm not the only hunter ready to take my money to other states. I guide fishing trips on a lake with a huge game reserve at one end. I would have seen the birds if they were flying around the reserve, and they were not here. The ducks did not show up until about a week after the season was over: and they came in by the thousands. The ducks are migrating to north Texas later than they used to. I don't know if it is because of food or climate change, but the fact is they are migrating later. If TPWD wants to keep hunter's money in Texas they need to figure out a way to change the hunting season dates like the ducks changed their migration habits.

Can't be done..."Migratory Bird Conventions" (Treaties) in place, under USFWS directions...here is the most salient passage:

Federal Framework Regulations

Framework regulations are the main foundation of annual regulations and consist of the boundary dates for opening and closing seasons, season length, daily bag and possession limits, and shooting hours.

In order to ensure these regulations are based on the best available and mostly timely scientific information, we use data from annual monitoring programs to determine the birds’ status, and ultimately if hunting can be sustained. Specifically, we use the results of annual survey and monitoring programs including bird banding, waterfowl breeding population and habitat surveys, and harvest surveys, as the basis for establishing the annual federal frameworks.

This strategy was developed cooperatively with the states in each Flyway and across all the Flyways (Atlantic, Mississippi, Central and Pacific) to manage our shared migratory bird resources. These frameworks often differ by Flyway depending on population status, number of hunters, projected harvest numbers, etc. Our objective is essentially to provide maximum hunting opportunity over the long-term while sustaining waterfowl populations into the future.

Season Lengths

The earliest (September 1) and latest (March 10) dates allowed for hunting are set by the Migratory Bird Conventions referenced at the beginning of this story. Framework dates, which are the annual dates selected by the Service for hunting, vary for different groups of migratory game birds. Annual framework dates for most regular waterfowl seasons are from the end of September to the end of January for ducks, and mid-February for geese.

Under the MBTA, season lengths may not exceed 107 days. The MBTA and related implementing regulations restrict when migratory bird hunting can occur during the year. The opening framework dates for the regular duck season cannot be earlier than the Saturday closest to September 24th and the closing date cannot be after January 31st. Why? Because hunting ducks after January 31st could have impacts on hen behavior and harvest in February is likely to have negative impacts on breeding duck population sizes in the spring. That could impact subsequent hunting seasons and reduce the overall opportunity for all hunters.

Season lengths for ducks vary by Flyway, with seasons being the longest in the Pacific Flyway and the shortest in the Atlantic and Mississippi Flyways, reflecting differences in the abundance of birds, number of hunters, migration patterns, and other factors. Once the federal frameworks are set, then the states have the option of selecting their seasons as long as they are within the federal frameworks (i.e., no more than 60 days in the Mississippi Flyway and 74 days in the Central Flyway when liberal seasons are allowed).

Most states select their hunting season to maximize their duck harvest within these frameworks. States always have the right to be more restrictive than the established federal frameworks.

Season lengths, bag limits, and to a lesser extent framework dates are selected and changed based on changes in bird abundance and habitat conditions.


...this is why the season can't be pushed back by a month or more...sorry...

Can't be done and shouldn't be done. Really the season should end early to mid January. Ducks are already pairing up and starting the breeding courtship in mid tonlat January. Shooting those birds, even just the drakes, disrupts the breeding cycle. Seasons going into February would have negative effects on an already struggling population.

this is exactly right!

that said, there is a serious issue that I don't think the authorities are paying attention to and I'm not sure we all really understand. Hate to say it, but if I were in charge, I would reduce bag limit to 4 and season length to 45 days for 3 years and see what happens to populations....I believe we truly have an issue with bird populations...

5th year in a row? This year they got here late because of the lack cold weather but the previous 4 years were great where I hunt.

Its been bad for some time now. IMO its a combination of things.

First, I think the duck surveys are not right. We have way less birds than being reported.
Second, the amount of feed just below the freeze line that are holding birds.
Third, when it is cold water is kept open with ice eaters.

The warm winter we had did contribute but its been getting worse year over year.

Again, IMO, we need a lot of things to change.

Rethink how the bird surveys are done.
Pay Farmers up north to not disturbe area that are key to breeding.
A big effort in predator control
Stop allowing the practice of flooding a corn field to hunt in it.
Ban ice eaters
A shorter season (30 to 40 days) with a 3 duck bag limit.

These are rough numbers, so don’t get too statistical. Duck numbers are probably half of what they were, which means available food sources to the north of us will last twice as long. If it doesn’t freeze up and get 2ft of snow dumped on it, which doesn’t happen anymore.

Oldest. Dumbest talking point on the WWW.

But just call tpw and tell em ole son

This will never happen, but we should start a petition to move youth weekend to the weekend after the season not before

Oklahoma is weekend after

Does DU have any say on this topic? like a tidal wave, they all start out small, and eventually become something
large and massive! it has to start somewhere! here in central texas im seeing lots of my 2 ponds now, seldom they
would lite here.....

It’s not the job of TPWD or USFWS to give us the best hunting seasons.

It should be backed by biologists that do what’s best for the waterfowl health and population as a whole.

Oddly enough, our largest concentration of birds was Nov 1, unreal amount of sprigs. After that pretty much stayed north chasing freeze line

hopfully DOGE shuts down TPWD and USFWS...problem solved, lots of them solved

Might get USFWS , but not TPWD… the parks part is forever

Federal Mandate. Never going to happen. Ducks pair up in Jan. We’ve had our 3 best season total ever, even though hunted 30% less this year. Great season

This is the reason we are in this situation. People are still in the “kill as many at all costs”, instead of considering what conservation steps need to be taken to help the obviously struggling resource. Liberal season length and bag limits aren’t it. It’s not just Texas…

My opinion from south Louisiana. I would never be in favor of delaying the start of the big duck season. We have a lot more ducks in our marsh November 1 than we do January 31. Most of our ducks are taken before January 1. There are many factors for that but keep in mind we are located on a similar latitude so I don't know why we have ducks early and Texas may not? I just know what I have seen over many years of duck hunting. Earlier the better for me for sure.

Our TX marsh birds are here like yours early. The marsh gets harder hunting as the season goes on. Ponds are eaten out and birds are moving around more. Another thing is, most of the birds that use the marsh are earlier migrators. They migrate by length of day.

TDK, if your referring to my post, you don’t know me, or the thousands of dollars I have spent on conservation - we have ducks directly because of my planting, flooding, drilling wells, and feeding 1000s of ducks during the season- while harvesting 10% or less of that number. If your comment wasn’t at me, no worries- if it was, you shouldn’t be painting everybody with the same brush.

I would imagine 90% of these posts “my season was terrible” is predicated on selfish rationale, not from the view of conservationists like yourself.

Good luck

The idea that hunters harvest are what hurts duck numbers is ridiculous. Surely nobody believes that.

The idea that taking approximately 9-10 million birds a year of an estimated 34 million has no effect(among others) is ridiculous. Surely nobody actually believes that. Of all the ways to conserve, this is the quickest and easiest to start implementing.

For comparison of another migrator, approximately 20-25 million mourning dove are harvested each year of an estimated 340 million. I wonder what would happen if that harvest number was closer to the harvest percentages of ducks.

Wasn’t directed at anybody in particular, rather an ideology. If you don’t fit into that ideology, it’s not directed at you.

No actually, they have plenty of people believing that “harvest has no meaningful affect on the population” as crazy as it sounds

Guess you killers need to hang it up to make up for the 85% hatch fatality rate.

Only around 5-7% at best of wild duck eggs hatch and fly away, per delta and du. Humans kill 10 million per year roughly(sometimes less, 14 million in 2023) of a population of around 35 million. You think that is sustainable?

I believe in the North American conservation model. I believe that if and when harvest numbers need reduction that will happen. I believe that guys in the south having a string of bad seasons (including myself) are looking for anything to blame. I do not believe we’re being lied to about duck numbers.

I’ve actually said for years take the limit to 3 total and clear out some flat billers. But do not think over harvest is the reason for bad seasons in the south.

Anybody that believes seasons and bag limits shouldn’t have already been modified for the health of the duck population several years ago is simply ignoring the facts. It doesn’t really matter if you believe hunting has an additive effect on waterfowl mortality or is just compensatory. (The oldest argument in wildlife management.). It also doesn’t matter if you believe “the numbers” are “correct” as long as the population estimates are created with the same methodology each year.


The adaptive harvest model is based on a premise (foolish as it is) that the health of North American duck populations can be assessed and season length and overall bag limits can be determined based on the “health” of the mallard populations. The question is why isn’t the USFWS and their partners in the flyway councils, like TPWD and LDWF, managing according to the “health” of the mallard populations as measured by their own numbers.

In 1998, at the beginning of the modern adaptive harvest model used by the USFWS the North American mallard population was 16 million birds. In 2024, the mallard population estimate was only 6 million birds. That is a LOSS OF 10 MILLION BIRDS IN ONLY 26 YEARS!!! We lost 62.5% of the population in 26 years.

Think about it. If the white tailed deer population in Texas declined by 62.5% in 26 years hunters would be in Austin with pitchforks and torches like a scene from an old Frankenstein movie demanding immediate action.

To think of it another way, if the population of most other animals declined by 62.5% someone would be wanting to list them as a candidate to be on the threatened and endangered species list.

There is a HUGE problem. This problem isn’t limited to Texas or Louisiana. If the ducks just didn’t migrate due to weather then the harvest numbers should indicate that and states further up the flyway should be harvesting above average numbers. If you look at the USFWS harvest numbers during the time the current adaptive harvest strategy has been in place the numbers show the exact opposite. Harvest numbers in states up the flyway continue to decline at the same percentage or even at a greater rate than harvest numbers in states at the southern end of the flyway.

Currently, nobody is listening. Quite the opposite. It seems the USFWS is trying to double down on their flawed system. Last year the USFWS changed the methodology used to determine populations so now you can no longer do a statistically valid comparison of current population estimates versus the previous estimates.

Now it seems the ISFWS is determined to raise the pintail limit to 3 birds even though the population is still recovering from the previous mismanagement of the USFWS.

It is a sad day if you want your grandchildren to experience what we have experienced.

Just my 2 cents.
Big Hutch

I agree 100% BH! Flawed system & too much money to be lost cutting seasons & limits.

Shout it louder, maybe ducknbass will hear.

Spot on

Well said! As you noted, it isn’t just a in the south thing. Winter count numbers are down elsewhere too! But, nothing will change I’m afraid. I looked at their harvest by specie from 23, over 500,000 pintails if I remember correctly. Shoot almost 1/3 of a population that is having a hard enough time reproducing, then triple the limit???? Idk, somehow we still have people drinking the kool aid

Okay. My mind is changing.

Do we have the records at when the last time numbers were at current levels?

If hunters killing ducks has no bearing on numbers ,why don't we just have a straight limit of 6 ducks ,any species? Something doesn't line up with all the federal BS they spout. I have 0 faith in anything the feds or tx game departments tell me nowadays. I have a had a couple of federal biologist tell me in their opinion, we are way past needing to cut limits & days. The last several counts have shown it. No one wants to be the one to say it though & cut the limits etc.

$$$$$$$$$, there’s more clubs/outfitters now that are 1500+ Per person per day than the average person thinks, they do have good hunting mostly...and they stay booked. Keep in mind the required Sitka suit. Now, run their numbers based on a 40 day season instead of a 74 day. Flooding 250+ bushel corn to shoot ducks starts not making sense.

Spot on! Money ruins all hunting.

Ducknbass, lot of different numbers to look at there, but well just use mallards. Last time population was around was 6 million was back through the 80s and early 90s. Point system days, you could shoot 3 drakes, shoot a hen you go to the house. First year without point system, total limit was 3, only 2 could be mallards. Seasons weren’t 74 days long either

So, what’s going on?

thanks for the info.

Everything definitely is not adding up

From what I understand. There is alot of data and scientist now saying things are not adding up and are recommending reduced seasons and limits but the higher ups that make the decisions are not listening. Probably as already mentioned it all about the $$$

I think 90% of people in this thread, regardless of good or poor seasons lately, would take a 4 bird limit if that’s what it took to preserve our LT waterfowl population. Understand the numbers- but the so called “experts” have research that shows loss of wetlands and habitat is what affects waterfowl populations, not hunting. Have read many papers on it. I would imagine harvest does affect that somewhat, but nowhere near with the loss of habitat in the prairie pothole region, and other parts of North America. Look @ quail populations in most of Texas. East Tx used to be covered up in the 80s, now, you may not find one covey for 100s, if not 1000s of miles across the state - Cattle farming and introduction of Bermuda grasses have wiped them out- along w droughts, eye worm, etc

Exactly! This whole premise is further validation that limits and season length needs decreased. Otherwise, the problem becomes progressively worse.

Conservative hunting seasons short term, and explore longer term options that benefit the resource.

While I agree it’s money driven, surely those who implement policy that promotes such see where it leads.

Too many kids with daddy money hunting 50-60 days a season across 1/2 the country.

In an ideal world the numbers/percentage of ducks killed by hunters would not matter. Its the hatch numbers and percentage up north. But....with those poor numbers coming from the north dropping bird count (I'm in the we do not have the numbers the feds say we have boat) , then our harvest does start taking a real effect. I've heard from too many well-respected old-time hunters that something is wrong and its a combo of issues, with bird numbers at the tip of the spear.

The light at the end of tunnel is this....were simply talking numbers. 2% or 3% of millions makes a HUGE difference.

So if Im understanding this correctly, you are comparing ducks(animals that migrate hundreds and sometimes thousands of miles annually in search of what they need), to an animal that will hatch and die within the same 100 acres the majority of the time?

You can’t drink the kool aid and understand this. Somehow the kool aid drinkers can’t fathom that if the fall flight is 35 million and we shoot 14 million like we did in 23, only 21 million are headed back to nest. I would consider that a notable impact on the population

Apologies, we harvested 14 and something million out of 32 million that year, not 35. Who wants to go on record and say killing almost half of the population doesn’t have an affect on the population? A population that is under the long term goals at that

Heck I really don't care anymore. I have been reduced to camp cook and full time carpenter.

For some reason I had no idea that hunters took out that much of the population annually. Even if it's a third, that's still a huge number.

I know biologist argue that there is only so much viable breeding ground so a lot more ducks making it back in the Spring doesn't result in a linear increase in production. Basically the grounds can only hold so much... but I have a hard time believing it.

Another realization... about a million duck hunters and 10-14M ducks killed. An average of 10 or so ducks per hunter per year. That's just an average weekend to me. Maybe I'm part of the problem

I'm not one of those folks that would hesitate to do the same 2 am wake up and 2 hour drive for 2 or 3 ducks a hunt.

Below is a link to complete a survey on your thoughts on this season.

https://www.thestandardsportsman.co...YKVtWuuT5w-nQ_aem_wXq8PRJ-7vxcJsso_ppXIw

Harvest rates seem high until you only figure 10 for each hunter. I know a lot don’t shoot 10, but one guy that shoots 100 takes care of 9 that didn’t.

All 3 can be hens too. Another semi lengthy thread on that, almost identical to this one, just pintail based. Waterfowl population status thread by sniper John. Same thing, hunting doesn’t matter, research this and that, chug more kool aid, repeat.

The Katy prairie is gone,and around Eagle Lake went from 45,000 acres of rice to 4,000 and y'all wonder why we don't have ducks!

I don't think there is a single post here that "wonder why we don't have ducks!"...rather this has been a discussion, with anecdotal as well as reference to published analysis of the plight of waterfowl across at least this flyway and more broadly across the continent. In much the same way as the rice acreage on the Katy Prairie has dwindled, the participants of this thread have noted their alarm at the apparent lack of realization, or possibly purposefully ignoring the data being provided by knowledgeable, professional and respected waterfowl population biologists and statisticians, of the fact that population survey estimates don't match actual numbers seen by both members of the hunting public, and more importantly "professional" observers. Rice farmers steadily decreased the acreage committed to farming rice on the prairie in an almost exact duplication of the reduction of acre feet of water available to flood rice fields...no water...no waterfowl ~

Waterfowl population experts... actual biologists and statisticians, have had their findings diluted or completely ignored by the politicians that "lead the Agencies" that formulate and dictate policy, seasons and bag limits...These agency decision makers, no doubt influenced by the lobbyists for the equipment providing mega-stores, the social media influencers, etc, have guided hunting seasons and bag limits down the path of demise we now find ourselves on...Only by rending the future of waterfowl hunting from politicians and "biting the bullet" now do we stand any chance of preserving our water-fowling heritage...I have exercised VR regarding hens for 15 plus years...and "paid" extra to Delta and DU for any hens taken in error...and since my wife, [censored] that she was, passed in 2015... I have limited myself to 4 teal/day during early season and 3 ducks/day in aggregate, during regular duck season...and on the days the birds don't cooperate...I still get to spend hours in the duck marsh, with my canine companions, scanning the sky for the visual that still raises my pulse and makes me fumble for a teal whistle, or single reed duck call.

Just as the founders of Delta in 1911 and DU in 1937 stepped up and committed to preserving what was important to them...and their legacy...it's time we give all we can and take a little less...

Exactly! We shot them good the last 2 weeks of the season. And the past few years have been great.

I dont go off of stats and what magazines put out. I go off what I see each year and what the weather does. For some reason, alot of guys dont realize that weather is a huge reason why we either have birds or we dont. The other are crops in each flyway. More food...more ducks. Pretty simple.

Basing your assumption off of what you see in one area is very oblivious, these birds move thousands of miles annually in search of what they need. The overall population is low, and we continue to have liberal seasons and limits. Even raising the limits on some. The last time numbers were around these levels the limit was 3(2mallards)....just saying.

It is probably a combination of things rather than one issue. Could be any of Low population, more successful hunting methods, bird flu, short stopping, refuges, flooded crops and hunt clubs, higher limits in Canada and Mexico, poaching, climate changes, reduced nesting areas, predators, weather, wind farms, etc., but combined.

I completely agree that limits should be moved to 4 ducks per day. That should have been done years ago. I pray for the day that game laws follow scientific studies instead of fat wallets.

Personally I don't feel the number of ducks that can be shot is going to affect the trend. I don't believe any numbers the USFWS puts out. None. Why isn't there real research on the problem? I for one think forage is the number one reason.

Forage? What kind? Winter food? Nesting cover?

Agreed. Some of those things we can’t control. About half of them we as hunters can, and we are not. Not everyone included, but once upon a time hunters as a whole were conservationists as well. I’m seeing less and less of that these days.

Thank you!!!! If you have the right weather, and you have food for them....you will have ducks...period!

I know a guy who just got back from Tamaulipas...5 guys killed 300 ducks in one day. Mostly redheads.

Here you go, though I always assume these things are done deals despite the comment period.


https://tpwd.texas.gov/business/fee...tewide_hunting_migratory_game_bird.phtml

AUSTIN — Texas Parks and Wildlife Department (TPWD) is accepting public comment until March 27 for the following proposed changes to the 2025-26 Statewide Hunting and Migratory Game Bird proclamations:

Migratory Game Bird Regulations

Increase the daily bag limit of pintails from one to three in all duck zones.
Reduce the early teal season from 16 to nine days in all duck zones.
Extend the regular season length in the High Plains Mallard Management Unit by seven days.
Reduce special white-winged dove days from six to five days.
Reduce rail and gallinule season to nine days in September to match early teal and move seven days to the end of the season.
Extend the falconry seasons by six days for select migratory game birds.
Allow for calendar progression for all other migratory game bird hunting season dates.

Just banged out my missive...told them keep Northern Pintails at 1, reduce teal to 4 in the aggregate, during early teal season and reduce overall aggregate(all species) to 4 during regular season.

And I continue to ask all waterfowlers to practice Voluntary Restraint when it comes to hens...especially after the split when hens are readily identifiable...just my opinion

Oh yeah, and shoot every skunk, coyote, and bobcat you see in/near the marshes of TEXAS...or anywhere else waterfowl congregate.

All for show. tpwd is run by a bunch of buffoons. They have their minds made up & just throwing something out there to think they care.

I have started just about every conversation same way, except we had lots of ducks all year at one of our 3 wetlands we hunt. Pretty much record number is three out of the last four years and last year was a banger.

I have consistently seen population increases where I hunt. Managing private and putting little pressure if you have food and water/ coupled w good part of flyway, hunters moving birds, etc is the key. I don’t buy the rhetoric that populations are down 30-65%, except for pintails and few other species-we have been covered up w pintails last 3 years

100% great posts

Since you don’t buy into the rhetoric of the numbers being down, I’m going to say it’s pretty safe to state that you do not know the overall condition of the prairie pothole region? Have you ever been there? Have you compared its current condition to its condition during the banner duck number years? If you are going to assume that everything is great and ok based on your 3 personal wetlands(that total what? 10 acres) you are missing the point and the big picture being discussed.

Well........I guess Ill keep killing the crap out of ducks on my 10+ acres and you can worry about duck numbers and population.

If that’s what gets your fire started and makes you excited go ahead, that’s what it’s all about. I hope that 3 ducks for 30 or 45 days will satisfy you

Point I was trying to make, once again, is ducks travel hundreds and some thousands of miles annually. What is going on on one small privately managed wetland is one particular spot will most often not be a solid indicator of the big picture.

I have my own 3 ponds in the North Texas/Southern Oklahoma area. We do a round of hunting on each around Christmas on each pond, then we repeat last week of season (usually do 2 rounds on each pond this time). Most hunts we are limited in 30 minutes (2 or 3 of us). 3 hunts times 6 ducks is 18 ducks. That's is all I need to eat for the year. We shoot 80% Mallards and Woodies and fill in during tougher hunts or when someone wants a certain duck to mount. After the season was over, my ponds were full of ducks. Still have 30 woodies and several geese on them this morning. If you have your own land/ponds and don't over harvest, the hunting is still very good. And before you start with me being "lucky" or "blessed" for having my own land, I use to hunt public until I was 40 years old. I didn't waste money on coffee, cigs, bars, monster drinks, etc. I brought my lunch to work, saved and invested. Born with nothing....went to Army....went to college....worked my [censored] off. Everyone can do what I did.

Drive around Houston, Dallas, Austin, etc Metro areas and you will see 1000's of community ponds built each week. Most of them are full of ducks and geese. They are not as dumb as we think. They go to were they get free meals and no hunting pressure.

Unfortunately this is not always the case. Have a wetlands that went virtually untouched this year in N Texas and then only hunted a couple times between Dec-end of Jan. Less than 10 ducks taken. The ducks have been increasingly sparse over the last 10 years.

I don't hunt or kill ducks. I have some stock ponds that in past years had ducks on them in the fall and winter. It seems that every year there are less and less ducks. This year I have a few Teal. There were a pair of Mallards here for a few days. I have a pair of resident Canada Geese that stay here most of the year and that is it.

This thread has been interesting and lots of good comments. I'm on a nice duck lease in N.E. Tx. We had the good fortune of having John Davis, a Delta Biologist at our place Monday this week. As good as the lease is it can get a whole lot better which is why he agreed to come out. The man was a walking encyclopedia on everything ducks. He's a big duck hunter and charged nothing for his day with us (but he's getting a hunt this year and every year as long as he wants)
While he agrees populations are down, when I asked about hunter's harvest numbers and the effect those numbers have on duck populations, he bluntly said without hesitation and with a shake of his head "that is the most horse-chit crap going around"
The shotgun does not have any meaningful effect on bird populations. Its all about the breeding grounds, which we all know is not what it used to be. There are problems on the horizon, but ample rain can and will solve most of these problems. Coons, skunk's and red foxes are a major problem...especially when you look at the disappearing breeding grounds. Trap them you say....they have been trying that to no avail. Global warming has coons in places they NEVER use to be (there in the boreal) Red foxes are eating hens at an alarming rate and if she gets away, red will just take the eggs. Couple that with there just are not dedicated trappers today like in years past...I was astonished at how much predation the nest are taking on.

But water can solve a lot of it. On a side note, he said this year will be standard but its the following year we may have trouble. Doge has fired almost all the pilots that take the surveys. I didn't know the feds start the meetings with a no season attitude....and the biologist and states have to take survey data and show them that a season can take place and recommend harvest limits.

I plan on emailing John for more detailed info on all this. I'll share here. He has some podcast out there if you want to google them.

Interesting information. Thanks for sharing. That’s crazy about pilot layoffs.

I respectfully disagree about hunting not affecting populations. (As I posted earlier that is one of the oldest arguments in wildlife management) if hunting has no impact on populations why have daily bag limits and why not allow market hunting. There is a 100% guarantee that a hen I harvest will never produce eggs again. I know he is talking in overall percent of yearly mortality, but as the population continues to decline every duck harvested, especially hens, has a greater impact on populations.

Delta is about predator control. They have to have something that differentiates them from DU since they depend on donations from basically the same benefactors.

The bigger more important factor is fragmentation of habitat and destruction of nesting ponds by tillage and enhanced drainage systems. Until that is prioritized and reversed all the predator control in the world won’t work.

Just my 2 cents.
Big Hutch

Question. If John Davis says there is such a negative impact on hens from predators on the nesting grounds why wouldn't the same be true with predators on the wintering grounds. We as hunters are predators, we are killing alot of ducks, and a lot of hens. As mentioned every hen shot is a hen that doesn't lay eggs.

How is hunter harvest not part of the problem?

I get it, if nesting grounds were in optimal conditions every year harvest probably wouldn't be a problem. But nesting grounds aren't in optimal condition every year which results in lower duck production and for what ever reason biologist want to turn a blind eye to hunter harvest rates. Isn't that part of the equation?

It's like a doctor treating you for diabetes, here take this medicine. Don't worry about your sugar intake, this medicine is all you need. Oh wait, doctors and the pharmaceutical companies want the money to keep rolling in. They don't want to look at the whole picture and what is the root cause of the problem.

"Question. If John Davis says there is such a negative impact on hens from predators on the nesting grounds why wouldn't the same be true with predators on the wintering grounds. We as hunters are predators, we are killing alot of ducks, and a lot of hens. As mentioned every hen shot is a hen that doesn't lay eggs."

Wintering grounds is where fully matured ducks are. They can escape in a much higher rate. Ever wonder how we have so many male mallards even though we shoot 10/1 ratio of males.......as soon as the mallard hen gets her nest full of eggs and starts spending almost all her time on it, the male recognizes this and he knows his work is done. He actually protects her from other mallards (he lets other ducks like pintail, teal etc in) while she is foraging in their eating area, running other mallards off. But as soon as she starts incubation, and he sees less and less of her he is gone. The males all gang up in other feed areas where there are no predators, for the most part. Then the hens and eggs are at risk. More hens are killed up north than the shotgun can even compare with. Its pale in comparison.






"I respectfully disagree about hunting not affecting populations. (As I posted earlier that is one of the oldest arguments in wildlife management) if hunting has no impact on populations why have daily bag limits and why not allow market hunting."


market hunting cannot take place on any game species. Even whitetail deer could not sustain that. Bag limits and seasons are inside the management bubble...step outside that bubble (market hunting) and it will burst. From my take away there is so much mortality once a hen starts laying that first egg that everything else down the flyways are so pale in comparison. There are billions of eggs laid every year. There are literally hundreds of millions of eggs hatched....of all those numbers you get to the point of how many are leaving the nesting grounds. Then look at the harvest of those that are making the journey with a shotgun. And then break it down to just hens with a shotgun. Within that bubble is what they look at from what I can gather. I get the point of once thigs get so bad you better start looking at alternative solutions (bag limits). But I think they are looking at the bigger picture sorta. Its like me and you beating each other up at the poker table at one end of the table with our puny stacks.. with my 1 pair against your 2 pair. Meanwhile the dood at the other end of the table is sitting on all the chips with quads. They are looking for solutions at that end of the table.

Again, I can't wait to spend more time with John to learn more. We tried to talk about all this but time was short as we were focusing on our lease and what needs to be done plus he could only stay until early afternoon. The guy is a hunter and cares about populations as much as anyone.

not discrediting John or your property BDB. But run this across John and see what the professionals say, other than hunting has no impact. The normal harvest is 8-10 million in the US annually, recently it was 14 million one year, a year when the population was in the lower 30 millions. Do you really think that 20 million ducks will produce as much offspring as 34 million.....

predator and nest destruction is huge, but I'm thinking that 34 million ducks would produce more than 20 million....its numbers

as long as the fur market is crap, which it will not ever rebound to the levels of the 80s I do not believe, I wouldnt expect many people to be out trapping voluntarily with the grandkids

I think I mentioned this already, but the biologists in the know claim that due to limited viable breeding grounds there is a saturation point. At some point more nests do not result in a meaningful net gain because they won't make it.

I would imagine that saturation point is relative to how much rain those grounds get as well as the overall number of ducks. Surely if the hen numbers drop really low this whole argument goes out the window. That number must be pretty low tho.

We are the apex predator. There is no real limit over our ability to cause harm and chaos whether from ignorance, apathy, or from deliberate actions.

The ethanol mandate and subsidies allowed or forced (depends on how you look at it) farmers to remove lots of acres out of CRP in the Prairie Pothole Region. Ethanol made paying the penalties economically feasible.

Before those acres were removed, the protection of those acres and a wet period reinvigorated the “duck factory”. That led to record duck numbers in the late 90s and the current liberal adaptive harvest management strategy.

Now we are almost 30 years into the liberal seasons and limits and almost none of the “experts” will admit that the paradigm shifted when those acres were removed from CRP The liberal seasons and limits were not modified to reflect the (literal and figurative) changing landscape. Now duck numbers are around 45% below the levels of the late 90s. One would think someone would have recognized the trend and made adjusts. Unfortunately that is not the case. In fact the “experts” are trying to double down on a strategy that by all reasonable metrics is broken and failing.

To use BDB’s example, they are willing to go all in on a 7 3 off-suit but everyone in the game knows they are bluffing. Example, going to a 3 pintail limit when the population is barely over the number that allows us to harvest any pintails. What’s worse is they are bluffing with our money (ducks) and they won’t face any consequences when their bluff fails and they go bust. They will blame everybody and everything but their faulty models.

Just my 2 cents
Big Hutch

I'd say and I think alot of peoole would agree that the current state of waterfowl guides and outfitters is far worse than the market hunting days.

We as hunters in the US take out 25-30% of the population annually, but red foxes catching nesting hens is the problem....seriously? The difference is red foxes don’t buy Sitka waders and hunt at high end clubs and lodges.

And Bdb,

Did the biologist tell you that there were billions of eggs laid and hundreds of millions hatched, or are you grabbing numbers? If so, that is some serious production of a total breeding population of low 30 somethingmillion(with the majority of that being males). Considering a normal nest is only about 10 eggs worth

Sign me up as part of “alot of people”.

Some of the bigger guides services hunt 4-5 groups of 8-10 hunters per day. 30-50 hunters per day x 6 ducks / day x 60 day seasons 10,800 - 18,000 ducks per season per guide service.

You say that can’t or won’t happen. One guide service in SW LA averages 4-5K teal during the 16 day teal season.

The last 10-15 years has seen a rapid proliferation of guide services in the Central and Mississippi Flyways. Many of those guide services are like hordes of locusts. They don’t care about the resource. “Make a pile” …

A single hunter or family of market hunters never killed as many ducks or geese in a season as one of the big guides services does today. They didn’t have the equipment and mobility we have today. Sure a man might go and make a crawl to shoot enough ducks to sell to feed a family or to make a feather bed but that only happened a few days a year.

P. S. I come from a family of market hunters so i have an idea of what used to be harvested in a season. I doubt many of the “experts” on market hunting can say that.

Just my 2 cents
Big Hutch

Very knowledgeable and realistic. But you’ll always have those that believe in what “they” say, it what is actually happening in front of them. Something that hasn’t been discussed with the 3 pintail limit is pintail exclusive hunts that will happen. Not sure about up and down the flyway, but I know of places along the river and coast rarely get hunted because there were 5k pintails on it but nothing else. Who is going to go hunt for one duck per person? But if you can shoot 3? Have already heard some outfitters talking about this.

https://time.com/7267852/duck-population-decline-bird-report/

Here is a link or article about duck numbers.
I agree with the guys on here saying there is a problem. Not talking about a few places holding birds ,but the overall picture. Been hunting for 54 years & the last several years have just went down.

Me too. Guides are already talking about it here too. Many of the guides here in Louisiana have been running pintails out of the decoys to be able to shoot their other ducks. I grew up hunting areas that had no problem shooting 10 pintails per day person on any days you had a decent wind and weather. Shooting 3 pintails per person isn’t going to be difficult.

Better get in on the fun next season. We may not ever be able to legally harvest a pintail again after or if the feds actually accurately estimate the pintail population in 2026.

"Did the biologist tell you that there were billions of eggs laid and hundreds of millions hatched, or are you grabbing numbers? If so, that is some serious production of a total breeding population of low 30 somethingmillion(with the majority of that being males). Considering a normal nest is only about 10 eggs worth"


He used those numbers. But your in a pickle in your example. You say we have low 30m breeding with most being males. How is it that...

- hatch rates are 50/50 male and female
- we as hunters, shooting all the ducks and BY FAR drake greenheads...it's not even close (mallards)
- and we see far more drakes than hens while hunting

So, what's happening to most of the hens? I'd put more stock in those red foxes if I were you. (and coons and skunks)


Look, I agree we have a problem. I think its a combo of things, and I also believe we as hunters are not the big problem here. Duck production is the single biggest problem by far and its not even close.

Its where we go from here. I've not had a chance to pick johns brain again but I wil.

We may disagree on why there are more drakes, but we agree that there are more drakes than hens of the 30 some odd million counted in the late summer/early fall count. 8-10 million of those are harvested during the winter. How does the remaining population of low 20 something million ducks lay billions of eggs? Sounds like you and John are in a pickle with your numbers.

So many numbers and professional theories don’t add up when it comes to these topics. Hunting has no effect on the population, but when the population falls below a threshold number, they shorten the seasons and/or reduce bag limits. Why do something that has no effect? That’s something an oversized government would do.

There are some things we can control and some that we can’t. Whether the nesting grounds are in A+, B, or D- conditions, the more ducks that return in the spring at least gives us that many more chances at a successful nest /broods. The 8-10 million that got shot will lay 0 eggs. Duck hunting in Texas will end up being another thing you get to “just tell the grandkids about”

BDB, just take what John says with a grain of salt especially about mortality due to nesting ground predation. Predator control on the nesting grounds has been the main platform that Delta has used to differentiate itself from DU. Right or wrong Delta will push that forever because that gets them donations.

One farmer in the prairie pothole region will plow up more hens and clutches in a day than you can imagine. Successful nests beside a pothole that has modified or tile drainage and goes dry in mid May instead of late June or July is responsible for more lost hatchlings than direct predation.

Maybe the entire clutch of eggs or brood gets eaten by a skunk or a fox but it is the change / loss of habitat that is responsible. Predator control mostly treats the effects and doesn’t address the cause.

Just my 2 cents.
Big Hutch

Not many duck hunters have laid eyes on the “duck factory”, they just listen to what the biologist says. In addition to what hutch noted, it takes more consecutive wet years to boost duck numbers. Everybody, biologist included, chants”hopefully the snow melts and they get big rains to fill the ponds”. I have watched with my own two eyes farmers/ranchers baling cattails and other vegetation around ponds that was dry enough in the fall. I have also returned to a pothole(45 acres) I hunted the previous year to find it dried up, broke and planted in canola. We need a prolonged wet period of a few years to promote cover, while staying wet enough to keep farmers out....and that is a lot to ask in that part of the world.

W D Hunter you are exactly right It is a viscous cycle. Each year it stays dry more and more habitat is lost. That means it takes even more wet years for the habitat to come back.

Big Hutch

I listened to a podcast recently. It dicussed the importance of good conditions on the wintering grounds. Basically poor wintering grounds is just as detrimental to the population. During dry and warm wintering grounds Hens aren't able to put on the fat reserves needed to producs large clutches or make it through the 4 weeks of sitting on the nest with minimal eating. All it all it results in malnourished hens that produce smaller clutches and lower succes rates on the clutch hatching.