No actually, they have plenty of people believing that “harvest has no meaningful affect on the population” as crazy as it sounds

Guess you killers need to hang it up to make up for the 85% hatch fatality rate.

Only around 5-7% at best of wild duck eggs hatch and fly away, per delta and du. Humans kill 10 million per year roughly(sometimes less, 14 million in 2023) of a population of around 35 million. You think that is sustainable?

I believe in the North American conservation model. I believe that if and when harvest numbers need reduction that will happen. I believe that guys in the south having a string of bad seasons (including myself) are looking for anything to blame. I do not believe we’re being lied to about duck numbers.

I’ve actually said for years take the limit to 3 total and clear out some flat billers. But do not think over harvest is the reason for bad seasons in the south.

Anybody that believes seasons and bag limits shouldn’t have already been modified for the health of the duck population several years ago is simply ignoring the facts. It doesn’t really matter if you believe hunting has an additive effect on waterfowl mortality or is just compensatory. (The oldest argument in wildlife management.). It also doesn’t matter if you believe “the numbers” are “correct” as long as the population estimates are created with the same methodology each year.


The adaptive harvest model is based on a premise (foolish as it is) that the health of North American duck populations can be assessed and season length and overall bag limits can be determined based on the “health” of the mallard populations. The question is why isn’t the USFWS and their partners in the flyway councils, like TPWD and LDWF, managing according to the “health” of the mallard populations as measured by their own numbers.

In 1998, at the beginning of the modern adaptive harvest model used by the USFWS the North American mallard population was 16 million birds. In 2024, the mallard population estimate was only 6 million birds. That is a LOSS OF 10 MILLION BIRDS IN ONLY 26 YEARS!!! We lost 62.5% of the population in 26 years.

Think about it. If the white tailed deer population in Texas declined by 62.5% in 26 years hunters would be in Austin with pitchforks and torches like a scene from an old Frankenstein movie demanding immediate action.

To think of it another way, if the population of most other animals declined by 62.5% someone would be wanting to list them as a candidate to be on the threatened and endangered species list.

There is a HUGE problem. This problem isn’t limited to Texas or Louisiana. If the ducks just didn’t migrate due to weather then the harvest numbers should indicate that and states further up the flyway should be harvesting above average numbers. If you look at the USFWS harvest numbers during the time the current adaptive harvest strategy has been in place the numbers show the exact opposite. Harvest numbers in states up the flyway continue to decline at the same percentage or even at a greater rate than harvest numbers in states at the southern end of the flyway.

Currently, nobody is listening. Quite the opposite. It seems the USFWS is trying to double down on their flawed system. Last year the USFWS changed the methodology used to determine populations so now you can no longer do a statistically valid comparison of current population estimates versus the previous estimates.

Now it seems the ISFWS is determined to raise the pintail limit to 3 birds even though the population is still recovering from the previous mismanagement of the USFWS.

It is a sad day if you want your grandchildren to experience what we have experienced.

Just my 2 cents.
Big Hutch

I agree 100% BH! Flawed system & too much money to be lost cutting seasons & limits.

Shout it louder, maybe ducknbass will hear.

Spot on

Well said! As you noted, it isn’t just a in the south thing. Winter count numbers are down elsewhere too! But, nothing will change I’m afraid. I looked at their harvest by specie from 23, over 500,000 pintails if I remember correctly. Shoot almost 1/3 of a population that is having a hard enough time reproducing, then triple the limit???? Idk, somehow we still have people drinking the kool aid

Okay. My mind is changing.

Do we have the records at when the last time numbers were at current levels?

If hunters killing ducks has no bearing on numbers ,why don't we just have a straight limit of 6 ducks ,any species? Something doesn't line up with all the federal BS they spout. I have 0 faith in anything the feds or tx game departments tell me nowadays. I have a had a couple of federal biologist tell me in their opinion, we are way past needing to cut limits & days. The last several counts have shown it. No one wants to be the one to say it though & cut the limits etc.

$$$$$$$$$, there’s more clubs/outfitters now that are 1500+ Per person per day than the average person thinks, they do have good hunting mostly...and they stay booked. Keep in mind the required Sitka suit. Now, run their numbers based on a 40 day season instead of a 74 day. Flooding 250+ bushel corn to shoot ducks starts not making sense.

Spot on! Money ruins all hunting.

Ducknbass, lot of different numbers to look at there, but well just use mallards. Last time population was around was 6 million was back through the 80s and early 90s. Point system days, you could shoot 3 drakes, shoot a hen you go to the house. First year without point system, total limit was 3, only 2 could be mallards. Seasons weren’t 74 days long either

So, what’s going on?

thanks for the info.

Everything definitely is not adding up

From what I understand. There is alot of data and scientist now saying things are not adding up and are recommending reduced seasons and limits but the higher ups that make the decisions are not listening. Probably as already mentioned it all about the $$$

I think 90% of people in this thread, regardless of good or poor seasons lately, would take a 4 bird limit if that’s what it took to preserve our LT waterfowl population. Understand the numbers- but the so called “experts” have research that shows loss of wetlands and habitat is what affects waterfowl populations, not hunting. Have read many papers on it. I would imagine harvest does affect that somewhat, but nowhere near with the loss of habitat in the prairie pothole region, and other parts of North America. Look @ quail populations in most of Texas. East Tx used to be covered up in the 80s, now, you may not find one covey for 100s, if not 1000s of miles across the state - Cattle farming and introduction of Bermuda grasses have wiped them out- along w droughts, eye worm, etc

Exactly! This whole premise is further validation that limits and season length needs decreased. Otherwise, the problem becomes progressively worse.

Conservative hunting seasons short term, and explore longer term options that benefit the resource.

While I agree it’s money driven, surely those who implement policy that promotes such see where it leads.

Too many kids with daddy money hunting 50-60 days a season across 1/2 the country.

In an ideal world the numbers/percentage of ducks killed by hunters would not matter. Its the hatch numbers and percentage up north. But....with those poor numbers coming from the north dropping bird count (I'm in the we do not have the numbers the feds say we have boat) , then our harvest does start taking a real effect. I've heard from too many well-respected old-time hunters that something is wrong and its a combo of issues, with bird numbers at the tip of the spear.

The light at the end of tunnel is this....were simply talking numbers. 2% or 3% of millions makes a HUGE difference.

So if Im understanding this correctly, you are comparing ducks(animals that migrate hundreds and sometimes thousands of miles annually in search of what they need), to an animal that will hatch and die within the same 100 acres the majority of the time?

You can’t drink the kool aid and understand this. Somehow the kool aid drinkers can’t fathom that if the fall flight is 35 million and we shoot 14 million like we did in 23, only 21 million are headed back to nest. I would consider that a notable impact on the population

Apologies, we harvested 14 and something million out of 32 million that year, not 35. Who wants to go on record and say killing almost half of the population doesn’t have an affect on the population? A population that is under the long term goals at that

Heck I really don't care anymore. I have been reduced to camp cook and full time carpenter.