Well, I said I wasn't going to do another year after 2021. I'd planned to move to Arizona after the sale of my business. Then inflation hit and here I am, still running a business and still in North Texas.

This one is more an observation as we are early for most everything. I'd had hopes that Lakes A & D would be back up to normal after the spring rains. That's not the case currently. The lakes are back to just above 22 levels (during the season). We usually get a bump in September that adds 6 inches to a foot (on lake A). If we get those Lake A will be huntable. Lake D, not so much. We need rain this September. Some long-term forecasts are calling for a wet winter. I'll take that along with a cold one up north. Most tanks I've seen are low but not to the level they were in 22 and 23. So, if we don't get rains I'm thinking tanks will be better than upper lakes. My experience with the two is more birds early on tanks but it ends early. Fewer birds decoying on lakes but it last longer. Not a long and hard rule, just my observation. If you have a different one I'm happy to hear it.

Eastern North and South Dakota have had a normal spring and summer. Kansas has been abnormally dry to moderate drought as have parts of Oklahoma. Theoretically, that may move birds down faster once ND and SD freeze up. If we get rain in N Texas we could move from abnormally dry to normal. It would have been good to have decent water in August but we may still get seed and duck weed in upper lakes with rain in September. I may be off a month on those and we end up with rising water flooding plants that germinated on moist soil during the low periods in August. I'd be happy to entertain thoughts on that as well.

My long-term hope, bring back peanut contracts.

As usual, just my 2/10 of a cents worth.

And yes. Yes, I am a region namer...

That's if the La Nina kicks in this fall. It's late. I'm hoping it doesn't show up until February, but not at all would be ok with me. We'd get a neutral winter and maybe some rain, less hurricanes and I don't have to deal with another drought growing season. What I've read is that all the Pacific cold water is subsurface. But there's a chunk of it , to put it in terms I understand and it's a question of when it surfaces.

If it does show up this fall then I think we're in for warmer weather and dryer lakes this duck season.

Thanks for the info.

Given the current situation with Lakes A & D, it’s good that you’re keeping an eye on September rains, which could make a difference. Your experience with tanks versus lakes aligns with a common observation: tanks often have more early-season bird activity but can dry up faster, whereas lakes might attract birds later but offer a longer season.Regarding your mention of weather patterns and their effects, it's worth noting that regional droughts or wet spells can indeed influence bird migration patterns. Kansas and Oklahoma's dry conditions might push birds to move faster south, potentially affecting their arrival in North Texas. If the forecasts predict a wet winter, it could help replenish water sources and improve conditions overall.

My place is in young county. About the middle of the county on the Throckmorton line. We have missed just about all the rains that would cause runoff. My ponds are low & getting lower. Makes it tough for the veggies to get hold & grow good. I am hoping to get some runoff at some point ,but after about 2 yrs, I have just about given up.

Lake A hasn't yet gotten the September bump in level and based on past history, it's late. I was hoping we would see it in this last rain spell. What bump it did get has already washed out. I don't know what the governing authorities' priorities are for its lakes but evidently A being at full level is secondary. Lake D is in much better shape even though it has been historically low since 2022. Most of the other lakes, which I haven't put eyes on so haven't given them a letter this year, are doing well ranging from full to a foot and a half low.

Since I don't drive to my office anymore I don't know the status of the tanks that I used to scout. A cursory inspection of tanks that I know of show they are full at this point and there was a decent amount of plant growth around many of them that is now flooded. Whether this will hold into the season remains to be seen.

Best we can hope for on lake A is a later than usual rain. Right now, the pattern is mirroring 2023 although the level is a couple to three feet higher than last year. In 2023, lake A got a small bump then continued to drop.

Looks like Lake D is the choice for me this year. It means a longer drive. I plan to teal hunt lake D and will give a report.

What are your thoughts on Kansas and Oklahoma being dry, causing the birds to shift east more into the Mississippi flyway?

I wish Francine would be coming up through NTX, but looks like it will be tracking well east of us.

We need several inches of rain.

Birds fly back and forth between flyways but I expect (hope) they will fly through KS and OK to Texas. I think winds and weather play a big role in where they move to. Just my speculation.

I do to. Most people wish hurricanes and tropical storms would cease. But our coasts would be deserts without them. It's surprising how much the panhandle of Florida depends on those storms to store water. They still get afternoon rains, but the big water storage comes from offshore storms. And I think that water storage drives the rains that happen in the spring. I suspect something similar happens at the Texas coast.

That area has taken a beating the last two to three years. I had kind of planned on hunting a place around Abilene but it looked dry as a bone last time I checked on it. That was before these last rains. The la nina may have kicked in earlier than they thought it would, we just don't know it yet. That would be a bummer for everything center longitude of the state westward. East Texas seems to fair better, or has in the past. Personally, I think Texas should just buy Nebraska and South Dakota and use them as our personal duck hunting preserves...

Saw several very big concentrations of teal on the coast this AM. Opener is looking good.

Finally have alittle bit of a cool front coming in tomorrow. It's still been awfully warm though and will likely get warm again next week. No rain in the foreseeable forcast. We really need some rain and cooler Temps.

Here's to 3 and a half weeks till north zone opens.

Seen 300 Canadians on big tank outside Greenville Thursday evening. Need early cold weather this year for a push and will be good season. See what happens

Are you sure they weren't mexican?

Yeah

:Looked like they all had Edmonton Oiler Jerseys on too...Making a stop probably in Dallas watch the game and head south

Anyways..good sign to see in NTX
Warm next week hopefully the last and weather changes soon. 3 weeks till opener, be great to get a good cold front
beforehand
Cut a persimmon other day at farm showed a spoon so I’m staying positive we get some cold weather this year get some influx down here
See what happens

With overall numbers being low, continued increasing of winter habitat to the north of us, and continued loss of almost all quality habitat along the coast, combined with dry warm winters, expect numbers to be lower than last year, the new trend.

I believe this 100%
Things are changing down here and not for the good.

For those not keeping up...

Yeah it’s been below normal conditions and numbers for the past 10 years… We all know it’s frustrating

The Canadas you are seeing are residents. They breed and stay here year round. .

Yeah probably so..We had many residents in Blossom, TX area when I was guiding up there.

Just heard on the news this evening this is the 2nd warmest October on record for NTX.

I was thinking it was warmer than last year. Checked out a couple spots last weekend. We have a little more water than. We did last year, but it's dropping fast.

We need a good rain and some cooler weather soon or November might be bleak.

We have a ton of ducks around right now and little water.
Until we get a big freeze they will stay here.
No weather likely coming up next 10 days to help you all but some colder weather is supposed to stay to our North and may get a freeze into the Dakotas.

Saw 100 cranes migrating this past weekend though, headed towards Nebraska.

Had pile of teal, 7 gaddies and dozen pintail in Fannin property. Can’t wait. Shot more dove this year in afternoon hunts. Been hot on water. 6-9 harvested in 45 minutes to 1.5 hours before sunset. Been great

Last week we drove up to South Dakota to grouse and phez hunt. We were in short sleeves the whole time. Along the way there and back, we didn't see any good numbers from OK to Nebraska or on the way back down. There are a lot of teal, gadwall, and wigeon stacked up in the Dakotas right now.

Im now fully flooded. So, just waiting now!

I was supposed to go to SD for waterfowl this year. I drew a tag but no one else I had discussed going with drew. Kind of glad I didn't as I really don't want to hunt in warmer weather. I'd rather it be just on the edge of them moving out but not quite. I guess I could still go if someone had a tag. Otherwise, I'll have to try again next year with zero points. But the odds are pretty good. Sounds like they haven't even started moving south yet.

The spot where you took that picture from is where I'll set up. Send me that pin again. I think I lost it.

Looks good.

Sending now........

Next year we're going for the waterfowl draw, too. It would work out great to give my dog's feet a day or two off in the middle of upland hunting. I've been up there 3 of the last 4 years ranging from late Oct to early Dec and there have always been good numbers around.

Getting some good rain northwest of the metroplex.
Scouted east of the metroplex on Saturday. Waterlevels are ok, but could be better. Not many birds seen.

Cold weather this week may get them loving South, we should get down into the 20's at night for several days.

Saw 50+\_ mainly GWT 7 gadwall, dozen mallards pintails mixed yesterday around 10am on Fannin Property

Need more rain and cold weather. I'm not seeing but a few here and there. Grayson county.

Pretty good rain forecasted out west with a little front. Fingers crossed.

Driving to and back from Chicago I didn't see a lot of birds flying. I thought I would see some in Mo but nothing. Crossing northern Mo into IL I saw a few geese but I suspect they were locals. Weather was nice. NOT duck migration weather. The big lake was the nicest I've seen it. Calm and green to the beach. Looked like N Padre on a good spring day except no seas. No ducks out there either.

I didn't see any moving in OK. Only ducks I saw were this morning circling a tank near my house. Big ducks. Probably mallards.

I did hear a couple mergansers yesterday. I don't count those.