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Feb 7th, 2025
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Re: Waterfowl Population Status, 2024 [Re: LarryCopper] #9181689 02/05/25 12:23 AM
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Originally Posted by LarryCopper
Originally Posted by woodduckhunter
Once again, let’s do away with models and scientific studying, use real sense. Common sense, if there is any left out there. How can killing something not have an impact on the population?

It does, but all the studies have shown that by far the greatest impact on duck numbers is the condition of the breeding grounds in the spring and summer. Also, hunter related mortality is a drop in the bucket in the big picture.

Long story short, the claim is that having 10%+ more hens make it back up north means nothing if the breeding grounds aren't right. On the flip side, a smaller population can rebound fast under the right conditions and have the same production in numbers as a larger population.

Their data, not mine, but I do avoid taking hentails. Of the 12 I took this year, all were drakes.



We are going to find out how true the theory of harvest doesn't effect populations is when they increase the pintail limit to 3x.

If pintail numbers plummet, then harvest might have a greater impact on populations than what some consider it does. Which will open up a whole new can of worms. Hopefully it doesn't result in drastic cuts on season dates and limits.

Personally I would much rather see regulations that cut out spinning wing decoys and all other electronic decoys and decoy movers, no hunting past noon, cut limits back but not days. Example I'd much rather see early teal season stay at 16 days but cut the likit to 3 per day than be a 9 day season with the limit 6 per day. Which in 2025 we will have a 9 day early teal season bc the population has dropped.


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Re: Waterfowl Population Status, 2024 [Re: Sniper John] #9181711 02/05/25 01:05 AM
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You have 7 chickens, coon tears in the pen and kills 2, how many chickens do you have now? The population was affected.

Re: Waterfowl Population Status, 2024 [Re: Sniper John] #9181712 02/05/25 01:06 AM
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We have 1.85 million pintails supposedly, 124,684 were harvested last year, how many do we have now?....I have no idea how many were harvested and neither do they.

Re: Waterfowl Population Status, 2024 [Re: LarryCopper] #9181816 02/05/25 03:12 AM
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Originally Posted by LarryCopper
Originally Posted by woodduckhunter
Once again, let’s do away with models and scientific studying, use real sense. Common sense, if there is any left out there. How can killing something not have an impact on the population?

It does, but all the studies have shown that by far the greatest impact on duck numbers is the condition of the breeding grounds in the spring and summer. Also, hunter related mortality is a drop in the bucket in the big picture.

Long story short, the claim is that having 10%+ more hens make it back up north means nothing if the breeding grounds aren't right. On the flip side, a smaller population can rebound fast under the right conditions and have the same production in numbers as a larger population.

Their data, not mine, but I do avoid taking hentails. Of the 12 I took this year, all were drakes.


You are spot on


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Re: Waterfowl Population Status, 2024 [Re: Sniper John] #9181852 02/05/25 04:36 AM
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Because they want actual data from harvests. My guess is if you use 0 0 0 on HIP some years like many choose do do no matter how many birds they take, your guaranteed not to get asked for the diary survey. They choose the wing survey participants from the diary surveys. Again just guessing but they are probably also choosing repeat participants from those who previously participated as a way to get a higher return of data. Ways this may not be perfect. Common sense tells me that participants are likely more seasoned waterfowl hunters who choose to shoot more drakes than hens than the overall number of hunters. And the number of hunter participants for the surveys have to be limited to a few thousand due to lack of manpower and funding. I can think of others, but those would be two big ones.

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What We Do
The Fish and Wildlife Service monitors migratory game bird harvest in the United States. The Branch of Monitoring and Data Management (BMDM) within the Migratory Bird Program uses the Harvest Information Program (HIP) to select hunters for the Migratory Bird Hunter/Harvest Survey (Diary Survey) and the Parts Collection Survey (Wing Survey). All hunters are asked to complete HIP but a smaller sample of hunters are sent the Diary Survey and Parts Collection Survey. The smaller sample is based on HIP responses.

The survey program has three steps:
Step 1-Harvest Information Program (HIP)

All migratory bird hunters are required to fill out HIP when they register for their hunting license. These registration questions include name, address, and hunting activity from the past season. See the Our Laws and Regulations section below for more information.

Step 2-Migratory Bird Hunter Survey (Diary Survey)

We send hunters selected for the Diary Survey a hunting diary form. This form asks for the date, county, and number of birds taken for every hunt. There are five separate surveys for five species or species groups: 1) doves and band-tailed pigeons, 2) waterfowl (ducks, sea ducks, geese, and brant), 3) American woodcock, 4) rails, gallinules, coots, snipe, and 5) sandhill cranes. These surveys are important because they give us harvest estimates for these species/species groups.

Hunters can find the online Diary Survey at https://www.fws.gov/harvestsurvey.

Step 3-Parts Collection Survey (Wing Survey)

To collect information about harvest by species, age, and sex, we conduct Wing Surveys. We select some successful hunters from the Diary Survey and ask them if they are willing to send us parts from the birds that they harvested. Hunters send a wing from each bird they shoot (or tail feather from each goose).

There are three independent wing surveys: (1) waterfowl, (2) mourning dove, and (3) woodcock, rail & band-tailed pigeon.

Biologists at “wingbees” examine wings to determine the birds’ species, age, and sex. Woodcock wings can help us determine their age and sex ratios. Mourning dove and band-tailed pigeon wings can help us determine their age ratios. Rail wings can help us determine their species.

The Diary and Wing Surveys help us estimate how many ducks of different species, ages, and sex were harvested during a hunting season. The surveys also allow us to estimate species and age-specific harvest for geese. We also use age ratios to calculate reproduction rates. Reproduction plays an important role in keeping migratory bird populations stable.

Hunter information is critical to our understanding of migratory bird populations! Annual participation in HIP and the Diary and Wing surveys contributes to wildlife conservation and management.

Re: Waterfowl Population Status, 2024 [Re: Greekangler] #9182237 02/05/25 11:30 PM
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And when was the last time pintails had a bountiful rebounding nesting season?

Re: Waterfowl Population Status, 2024 [Re: Sniper John] #9182242 02/05/25 11:42 PM
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The 10% making it back north claim could be true for one year, but run that 10% number over the course of several years....especially when the population is only 1.8

Re: Waterfowl Population Status, 2024 [Re: woodduckhunter] #9188416 02/18/25 04:20 PM
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Originally Posted by woodduckhunter
In 28 years of having a texas hunting license I have never received or heard of such....pretty small data sample


BTW, I was asked to do the US Fish and Wildlife daily hunt surveys for Texas Woodcock and Oklahoma Waterfowl this season. I focused most of my bird hunting on quail, snipe, and Texas wood ducks this season. I did not have much to participate in those surveys with so I had forgot to enter the daily hunts and only today changed my entry to a season total survey to close it out. As I posted before I have been asked to do quite a few of these types of things over maybe 45 years of bird hunting. If you ever get asked, be sure to participate. As often as I get them, past participation has to have something to do with it. And maybe be sure to enter true HIP numbers for ever state you get a license in.

Re: Waterfowl Population Status, 2024 [Re: Sniper John] #9188493 02/18/25 06:12 PM
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I don't know how many of yall follow Doug Osborne. But Doug works with the university of Arkansas and has conducted alot of research and studies over the last decade.

He has no agenda, but to report his findings. When he is reporting duck nunbers are as low as ever in the past 10 years. There's a problem.

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Re: Waterfowl Population Status, 2024 [Re: 2flyfish4] #9188899 02/19/25 02:39 PM
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Thanks for sharing the Osborne post. He provides real data based on decades of field experience. His comments about ducks not showing up after the season closes is highly alarming. He is there in the field and has been there recording data for years.

If the downward trend in populations is going to be stopped it has to be a grassroots movement. It will not come from USFWS, TPWD, LDWF, etc. Waterfowl managers at least at the highest levels that make the decisions have no incentive to lower limits or days because they would have too much political backlash.

It will also not come from anybody in the hunting business. There is way too much money at stake for anyone in the business to raise any red flags. Sadly, these are the folks that have the most to lose if/when the population crashes. Unfortunately, there is too much emphasis on “making piles” and not enough emphasis on conservation in that crowd. (I used to have my own guide service so I am more than a casual observer on this issue.)


Just my 2 cents.
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Re: Waterfowl Population Status, 2024 [Re: BigHutch] #9188902 02/19/25 02:49 PM
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Originally Posted by BigHutch
Thanks for sharing the Osborne post. He provides real data based on decades of field experience. His comments about ducks not showing up after the season closes is highly alarming. He is there in the field and has been there recording data for years.

If the downward trend in populations is going to be stopped it has to be a grassroots movement. It will not come from USFWS, TPWD, LDWF, etc. Waterfowl managers at least at the highest levels that make the decisions have no incentive to lower limits or days because they would have too much political backlash.

It will also not come from anybody in the hunting business. There is way too much money at stake for anyone in the business to raise any red flags. Sadly, these are the folks that have the most to lose if/when the population crashes. Unfortunately, there is too much emphasis on “making piles” and not enough emphasis on conservation in that crowd. (I used to have my own guide service so I am more than a casual observer on this issue.)


Just my 2 cents.
Big Hutch



Spot on Hutch! Too much $$$ at stake.

Re: Waterfowl Population Status, 2024 [Re: Sniper John] #9188942 02/19/25 03:47 PM
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Agreed!!!!!! And they justify their actions of doing nothing by saying “hunter kill numbers have no noticeable impact on the population” to appease the pockets. What amazes me is the number of people that drink the kool aid. But, they’re starting to realize

Re: Waterfowl Population Status, 2024 [Re: Sniper John] #9189332 02/19/25 11:57 PM
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I quit duck hunting when they forced steel shot on us. Seems that lead shot is not the problem.

Re: Waterfowl Population Status, 2024 [Re: Sniper John] #9189360 02/20/25 12:46 AM
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what can we do to band together and get someone in the fed's to listen and drive change?

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