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Re: Stock Market Crash [Re: Guy] #9110664 09/20/24 05:38 PM
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Re: Stock Market Crash [Re: Guy] #9110717 09/20/24 07:59 PM
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I couldn’t care less what the market does, I’ve nearly 5x since 2019, during that time I’ve taken some huge hits followed by huge gains, I’m young and the fluctuations don’t bother me.

All of my stocks that pay dividends I roll those dividends right into my son’s 521 plan.

I don’t have time to watch or play the market, and would prob screw it up. Set it and forget it and let the professionals handles it.

Last edited by BigPig; 09/20/24 08:02 PM.

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Re: Stock Market Crash [Re: Guy] #9110719 09/20/24 08:01 PM
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"...is more mature than the typical SMU undergraduate." rofl Who puts that in a recommendation letter? grin


...and have dominion over the fish of the sea, and over the fowl of the air, and over every living thing that moveth upon the earth. Gen. 1:28
Re: Stock Market Crash [Re: Creekrunner] #9110956 09/21/24 11:48 AM
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Originally Posted by Creekrunner
"...is more mature than the typical SMU undergraduate." rofl Who puts that in a recommendation letter? grin

It is pretty funny actually, never thought about it much till now, but she was probably taking a shot at SMU undergraduates vs her graduate students and didn't realize it. She taught that exact same class at the graduate level, same texbook, same lecture, and the exact same test which were only 2 (mid-term and final). The only difference was her grading curve. Good professors would rather teach at the gradual level because many graduate students are professionals with real work experience, and the professor learns from them. I worked 6 years as a financial analyst with 2 different fortune 500 companies before I want back and got my graduate degree. I also worked professionally while I got my undergrad. But yeah classroom chatter before class students talking about what movie they saw over the weekend, her undergrad class would be taking about Animal House, her graduate students would be talking about Wall Street. So she just being honest lol.

Re: Stock Market Crash [Re: Guy] #9111001 09/21/24 02:00 PM
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Warren Buffet gets mentioned a lot as one of the greatest investors of all time. It isn't just Warren Buffet, but also Berkshire Hathaway. In the last few weeks or so numerous financial commentators have indicated that he/Berkshire have their highest percentage ever in cash or T-Bills. Last night one commentator said they are the single largest holder of US T-Bills. They obviously haven't sold everything, but that is the message.

One investor in an interview not long ago said that he doesn't view cash and T-Bills as a drag on his portfolio, but considers it as like a Put option. It is the price he pays to be ready for a downturn and being ready to buy something.

Re: Stock Market Crash [Re: Guy] #9111042 09/21/24 05:08 PM
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What about mutual funds? They are available in many different areas, stocks diversified, some heavy in the tech and bond markets. What say you?

Re: Stock Market Crash [Re: Wilhunt] #9111215 09/22/24 02:01 AM
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Originally Posted by Wilhunt
What about mutual funds? They are available in many different areas, stocks diversified, some heavy in the tech and bond markets. What say you?


For that type of investment I prefer ETFs. They are essentially a mutual fund, except with typically much lower fees and more favorable tax treatment. I don't know about now, but a long time ago you couldn't exit a mutual fund I think until the end of the trading day. If the bids and offers are available you can exit an ETF any time during regular trading hours. Some ETFs trade during extended hours, like during the evening and early AM session.

Re: Stock Market Crash [Re: DannyB] #9111240 09/22/24 08:43 AM
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Originally Posted by DannyB
Warren Buffet gets mentioned a lot as one of the greatest investors of all time. It isn't just Warren Buffet, but also Berkshire Hathaway. In the last few weeks or so numerous financial commentators have indicated that he/Berkshire have their highest percentage ever in cash or T-Bills. Last night one commentator said they are the single largest holder of US T-Bills. They obviously haven't sold everything, but that is the message.

One investor in an interview not long ago said that he doesn't view cash and T-Bills as a drag on his portfolio, but considers it as like a Put option. It is the price he pays to be ready for a downturn and being ready to buy something.

When Warren Buffet talks everyone needs to get their pen out and take notes. I got comments I’ll post later, I’m trying to killl some ducks.

Re: Stock Market Crash [Re: Guy] #9111973 09/23/24 07:47 PM
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Guy what are your thoughts on mutual funds? I have invested with Vanguard and thought their expense ratio was good. Think Danny B is correct when you can exit a fund.

Re: Stock Market Crash [Re: Guy] #9112046 09/23/24 10:17 PM
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I will say this again - if you are young and building your retirement portfolio stay invested even if the market craters. You have plenty of time to recover which the market always does.

If you are within 5 years of retirement or in retirement then consider scaling back - not saying to get out of the market but lower your risk somewhat so that if there is a crash you will have some safe money to continue drawing income from. Having to draw your income in retirement off of accounts that are 20-30 percent down is a double whammy and hard to recover from - food for thought


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Re: Stock Market Crash [Re: Wilhunt] #9112060 09/23/24 10:45 PM
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Originally Posted by Wilhunt
Guy what are your thoughts on mutual funds? I have invested with Vanguard and thought their expense ratio was good.

Absolutely mutual funds are the way to go over picking your own stocks. You should only pick your own stocks if it is something you want to do, and enjoy doing it. And you are doing the right thing by looking at the expense ratios, I do not do that enough myself. And Vanguard funds are very good. Below is my general allocation portfolio mix. As can be seen, 24% risk free, and 76% market portfolio. Last I checked coupled weeks ago, I was earning 5.16% on the money market, I'm sure it is lower now. I myself should be more diversified with my market portfolio. My advisers says I should hold more international, but you know International has always sucked. I will tell you all my personal stock picks are 90% Tech. What I really like is dividend growth funds, these are growing companies that pay dividends. Companies that are growing and paying dividends, they have to be very disciplined with their financials, and I like that, and I have found they are great performers, especially when interest rates are headed down. There is nothing magic with these percents, it is just to give you an idea. I have my kids in an S&P 500 indexed fund, and I think that is great index fund. Up till a few years ago I was 100% stocks, but I'm taking less risk these days as I do have an eye on retirement.

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Re: Stock Market Crash [Re: Guy] #9112076 09/23/24 11:04 PM
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Up till a few years ago I was 100% stocks, but I'm taking less risk these days as I do have an eye on retirement.


Exactly! I have posted this many times - thanks for encouraging people to scale back when near or in retirement - If you are older like I am and been around and through some pretty rough markets it is no fun

Last edited by tlk; 09/23/24 11:06 PM.

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Re: Stock Market Crash [Re: Guy] #9112081 09/23/24 11:08 PM
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Originally Posted by Guy
Originally Posted by Wilhunt
Guy what are your thoughts on mutual funds? I have invested with Vanguard and thought their expense ratio was good.

Absolutely mutual funds are the way to go over picking your own stocks. You should only pick your own stocks if it is something you want to do, and enjoy doing it. And you are doing the right thing by looking at the expense ratios, I do not do that enough myself. And Vanguard funds are very good. Below is my general allocation portfolio mix. As can be seen, 24% risk free, and 76% market portfolio. Last I checked coupled weeks ago, I was earning 5.16% on the money market, I'm sure it is lower now. I myself should be more diversified with my market portfolio. My advisers says I should hold more international, but you know International has always sucked. I will tell you all my personal stock picks are 90% Tech. What I really like is dividend growth funds, these are growing companies that pay dividends. Companies that are growing and paying dividends, they have to be very disciplined with their financials, and I like that, and I have found they are great performers, especially when interest rates are headed down. There is nothing magic with these percents, it is just to give you an idea. I have my kids in an S&P 500 indexed fund, and I think that is great index fund. Up till a few years ago I was 100% stocks, but I'm taking less risk these days as I do have an eye on retirement.

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I would be extremely surprised if your only in tech for 2%. Even a S&P tracking fund or ETF is 30% tech. IMO if you want to keep up with the market you still need to be 30% in tech






Last edited by blanked; 09/23/24 11:10 PM.
Re: Stock Market Crash [Re: DannyB] #9112095 09/23/24 11:28 PM
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Originally Posted by DannyB
Warren Buffet gets mentioned a lot as one of the greatest investors of all time. It isn't just Warren Buffet, but also Berkshire Hathaway. In the last few weeks or so numerous financial commentators have indicated that he/Berkshire have their highest percentage ever in cash or T-Bills. Last night one commentator said they are the single largest holder of US T-Bills. They obviously haven't sold everything, but that is the message.

One investor in an interview not long ago said that he doesn't view cash and T-Bills as a drag on his portfolio, but considers it as like a Put option. It is the price he pays to be ready for a downturn and being ready to buy something.

When I first read this, the first question I had is what percent of Warren Buffet's portfolio is risk free (ie, money market, CDs, t-bills, etc..). As I been saying for a long time, in it's most simple terms, you 2 investment choices, 1) Risk Free investments or Risky (Market portfolio) investments. The % you chose to be risk free vs market portfolio is personal preference, the is no right answer, just depends how much risk you want to take.

I have not spent a lot of time researching this, but this is what I did, I googled "Warren Buffet portfolio risk free"

[Linked Image]

I read the first 2 articles, let's take them 1 at a time. Below is the first one at the top. Very interesting. It is a letter to Berkshire Hathaway share holders, and discloses his simple strategy, called 90/10 portfolio, meaning 10% risk free (t-bills) and 90% Market Portfolio (S&P 500 Index Fund). Read what he says, it is kinda funny "I'm putting my money where my mouth is" I bet he says that because he talks a lot of fundamentals, like this, but then he turns around and does something else, like what Danny brought up.

https://curvo.eu/backtest/en/portfo...dj6iAdAE4AuvxAjxyAJoANZgGVmogExr1ARm1OgA

So look at the second article. Wow, this answers my question, 50% risk free (t-bills)!! Reading the article was starting to get on my nerves, because you had to read and read before it got to what the 50%, which is was down, but it was indeed t-bills, risk free.

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/war...s-investable-portfolio-1-incredibly-safe

You can read all that, it is a good reputable article, some good reading, it is on the Nasdaq website, Mottley Fool is the editor so it reputable, but no where in there does Warren Buffet him say himself why he has done this. But here is snipit of the artical I would to point out that I agree with.

[Linked Image]

Re: Stock Market Crash [Re: Wilhunt] #9112096 09/23/24 11:33 PM
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Originally Posted by blanked


I would be extremely surprised if your only in tech for 2%. Even a S&P tracking fund or ETF is 30% tech. IMO if you want to keep up with the market you still need to be 30% in tech



Oh yeah I'm way heavy on tech, that 2% is Tech fund I have, it is a "sector" fund, and I was just calling that out because Wil was asking about that, per his quote below

Originally Posted by Wilhunt
What about mutual funds? They are available in many different areas, stocks diversified, some heavy in the tech and bond markets. What say you?


Re: Stock Market Crash [Re: Guy] #9112110 09/24/24 12:00 AM
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But look at that 3rd link I posted above, it talks about 70/30, 60/40, etc...Real simple fundamental way to look at this stuff, that I have been taking about for a long time. Here is another Warren Buffet artical I would like to post.

[Linked Image]

You can read it yourself, but here they are:

1) Speculating instead of investing
This is the issue I have posted before about bit coin. This is speculation, not investing. Stocks, you are buying a company that is turning a profit, there is an expected return you can calculate, forecasting profit you expect this company to earn, that is what stock analyst do. Bit coin expected return is zero, it is crypto currency, you should not expect to make money on a currency, it is speculation.

2) Trying to time the market
This has been my pet peeve on this forum forever, why I made this thread, poking fun at the "market timers". And it is kinda what Danny is suggesting (but for good reason, Warren Buffett apparently doing it). It is kinda interesting in the article says if you did have a crystal ball and could time the market perfectly, it would not help much, but no one can time it perfectly, I will argue you will be wronged more than right, simply because the market goes up more than it goes down, so odds are against you.

3) Over Paying.
This is an interesting one. But this goes to what I said in my post earlier, one thing I have always looked at is expected growth rate vs P/E ratio. If a company has a P/E of 20, and the last couple year it has been growing earning 30%, growth is > than P/E, that is really good. If it grows another 30%, and P/E stays at 20, that means the stock increased 30%. See how that works. I have bought many stocks with high P/E, you just hope they really grow earnings good year over year..

https://moneywise.com/a/ch-aol/3-ba...ign=59731&utm_content=msna_mon_59731

Re: Stock Market Crash [Re: Guy] #9112269 09/24/24 11:22 AM
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This is something to keep an eye on, the average S&P 500 PE ratio. I'm very much a PE guy. I remember looking at this in 2021 when it was at 40 and being concerned. But companies made good profits, stock prices went up and earnings went up more, drove the PE down. As long as companies are making money and growing profits we are good.

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Re: Stock Market Crash [Re: Wilhunt] #9112283 09/24/24 11:43 AM
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Originally Posted by Wilhunt
Guy what are your thoughts on mutual funds? I have invested with Vanguard and thought their expense ratio was good. Think Danny B is correct when you can exit a fund.

Here you go, listen to Warren Buffett. Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO 0.25%), and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust.

https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/09/24/warren-buffett-1-vanguard-etf-soar-163-wall-street/

Re: Stock Market Crash [Re: Guy] #9112451 09/24/24 05:12 PM
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Thanks guys very informative, I am retired, and my thinking is on board with some comments made. Need to study and learn on the other comments. Never take any funds out other than RMD. My investments are self-directed
Thanks again very important and interesting.

Re: Stock Market Crash [Re: Guy] #9112473 09/24/24 05:34 PM
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So how is RMD percentage calculated? Still have a few years until this kicks in.



Re: Stock Market Crash [Re: Guy] #9112503 09/24/24 06:31 PM
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Rustbucket, simple explanation is starts at 73 and is a formulaic calculation of life expectancy burning down tax deferred retirement assets.

Re: Stock Market Crash [Re: Guy] #9112505 09/24/24 06:32 PM
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Calculated to annual/monthly take amounts projected to exhaust those taxable/tax deferred assets.

Re: Stock Market Crash [Re: Guy] #9112541 09/24/24 07:41 PM
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How is life expectancy calculated, and who does it?



Re: Stock Market Crash [Re: DQ Kid] #9112608 09/24/24 09:51 PM
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Originally Posted by DQ Kid
Rustbucket, simple explanation is starts at 73 and is a formulaic calculation of life expectancy burning down tax deferred retirement assets.



AND DO NOT fail to take your RMDS - if you do the penalties are harsh - wherever you have your qualified money invested make sure to set it up on automatic RMD payments - in most cases RMD's are sent out in December. Also know that the entire RMD payment is considered ordinary income so your tax bracket may increase during retirement in some cases


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