Yes, it requires patience.

South Texas produces bigger deer and larger antlers because of population density in combination with browse quality.

Cattle typically in great condition if not overgrazed. Used to be a big vegetable growing region. The soil is responsive.

Ok, let’s simplify the question. Everybody should be able to play along now.
HYPOTHETICAL….
-assume 10000 acres of above average natural habitat.
-no supplemental feeding.
-Texas or southern Okla.
-last few years average rainfall.
-160 to 200” deer have been killed on occasion in the past.
-10 bucks are seen this year that score 150 and are all 6 yr old.
QUESTION— if they all live till next year and all conditions stay the same then how many of the 10 get bigger? How many get smaller? How many stay the same?
Looking for 3 numbers, guys.

10 7.5 deer

20-30% get bigger
20-30% stay same
20-30% shrink
10-30% die

you implement late season supplemental

survival and growth grow

STX Or Golden triangle is unique in its forage. One of the few place some deer grow in drought years, due to less palatable but higher nutrient option become a daily necessity.

This

I was wanting to exclude natural mortality but maybe it makes more sense to include it. Obviously there’s a good chance there will be some. If I knew the answer I wouldn’t be asking the questions but I think Bobos numbers make some sense. Hopeful to get others to chime in.

I think you are far enough south that my mortality % is high but I'd rather be surprised then disappointed

Agree on the attitude but wanting numbers from y’all and I’ll factor in the emotions and intangibles:)
We’ve only had 2 or 3 freezes this year. Corn piling up under feeders-lots to eat.
We have an 80 acre wheat field and I just looked at my hunting diary from previous years and we average 60 a sit on that field but this year only a handful. So much natural to eat they aren’t hungry.

What do you want? A spreadsheet?

No, just 3 numbers as best you can estimate….
Each will be between zero and 10.
I think you may have a finance/numbers background so I have faith in you.
Or ask our buddy BW his opinion.

Freerange, the only way you can know the answer is to identify some to let walk and start establishing data points. In time, with enough data points where you are. You can draw some meaningful conclusions. Reality is very few hunters walk that walk. Most likely none of us here have walked it in your location. My advice would be not to go all in from the outset. Pick a few each year to watch and see. There is a finite window. Try to identify the back door of the window you can warehouse the bucks in your area to without giving too much up.

Understand and agree with all that Smokey. Appreciate your time and opinion.
That’s pretty much what my plan is. We have an archive of pics of any “deer of interest”. Not a sophisticated system of tracking but the info is there if we want to go back and look and assess.
I also understand about the walk the walk. We are blessed and I just want to do all I can to maximize instead of waste.
Only 4 of us and we are all patient but no way are we cutting off our nose to spite our face by passing up every 6yr old.
Besides, there is usually enough older deer that some make it through without us trying.
I know what I think we should do in our situation and im prepared to do it. I’m mostly hoping for yalls input to use as fuel to discuss with my other guys. Everyone needs to be on board with all management plans.

One of our guys took this video at bow range of this buck this morning. I don’t know how post video. He’s the type buck none of us would kill as a Trophy so we have watched him for several years and will continue to. He’s likely 7 or 8 and this is his max rack(so far). It’s not a lot bigger and it’s only a one deer sample size and it was also a good rain year.
At least he didn’t shrink or die

Free - just my opinion. You know way more about deer and deer hunting than 99.9% of hunters - you are the most dedicated hunter I have ever known. So my adivice (even though it was not solicited) is for you as the lease manager to lay down the program and rules for the other hunters. Does not have to be hard core but you do not have to prove yourself to them. Just have a meeting and tell them that this is where we are going with the lease. I am guessing they all respect you greatly so do not worry about hurting anyone's feelings - just let them know here is our program going forward and it is what it is - good luck Brother

Tlk, thanks for the very kind words. I could say all the same about you. We are all pretty like minded and this would not be a big shift so it shouldn’t be a hard sell type thing. Thanks for your input.

I will chime in and basically agree along the lines of what BOBO posted, you are looking at around 30% rule of thumb…

30% will stay about same, 30% will get better, 30% will get worse.

I think the numbers from studies show about that, and also that there is almost zero predictability of who will get bigger vs who will get smaller. The word from the research side is shoot a deer if it gets you excited and don’t worry about next year. Obviously this research is in managed properties with good age structure in place. So if you are getting deer to 5.5+ then the criteria can be shoot away if it fancies you. The ability to say a specific deer will make it thru the winter and grow bigger (in a low fence non-fed situation like we are talking) is so difficult to predict.

"is so difficult to predict."

So bottom line is do not fret over all of the details. Doing math on deer is useless IMO. Lf or HF - feed or no feed. Mother Nature ends up being the deciding factor in most cases of which none of us have any control over.

Use common sense and put in the time to do the basic things that have been proven to work - cull mouths to feed (does and cull bucks), be patient, if in doubt of age do not shoot, find quality hunters to hunt with who do not buy into "if it has horns it is down" - feed or don't feed - neither is right or wrong but obviously feeding can improve the herd. Provide deer a water source if at all possible. My 2 cents worth but what do I know??

Wiser words may have not been spoken tlk…and you live the proof of that wisdom.

The bottom line is, don’t worry about it. If you have enough age, and like the deer, then shoot it.
As tlk said, if worried about the age, then let it walk and hope mother nature does some magic.

Buckeye,
It depends on what kind of deer you’re interested in. If the biggest ones at five or six that do manage to get bigger at 7 are the segment you hunt for, you won’t have any of those walking around if they get shot at five or six. Plain and simple. Where I hunt, natural mortality between age six and seven is well under 10%. The % that get bigger at 7 in my experience, is over 50% of the ones we let go, which are all the high end bucks. Someone else’s mileage may vary depending on the variables in their location. The biggest limitation to maximizing the antlers of free range deer is not feed. It is trigger fingers. Those that pull it off with relative frequency are the ones to pay attention to of that is what you want to accomplish. Those that walk that walk are a relatively small fraternity.

Disturbing or eliminating a reasonable percentage of the climax habitat to promote early successional plant species (forb production) is significantly more impactful than bag protein.

I’m sure all of that probably varies some by geographic location.

Totally understand smokey! And i agree with everything you wrote. 50% is a bog number for growth at 6.5yo but if thays what you have seen then hard to argue it. But that also means a deer that tickles your fancy at 6.5 will be worse half the time (or a little less than half the time) at 7.5….sure it could get bigger but it has a decent chance of getting smaller as compared to a 4.5 yo buck which we almost can guarantee saying it “should” get better the following year.

Trigger finger is the hardest thing to control ultimately. The other stuff is just work (please dont take that to say it is easy work). The willpower to not ahoot a pretty deer in hopes it will get better is really the ONLY thing we can control. Especially as the season goes on and you get that itch to kill something, that willpower can be a tough thing to control.

"Especially as the season goes on and you get that itch to kill something, that willpower can be a tough thing to control"

Over the many years we have had our lease the few mistakes that were made on a hunter shooting a DNK buck was on the final weekend of the the season. A few guys just could not stand it and therefore ............. they were not back with us the following season. Maybe the greatest management tool of all for whitetail deer hunting is patience and self control.

I am not talking about an entire are class Buckeye. What I am describing is identifying the top genetic subset within each age class that exhibit superior antler growth potential and characteristics. The ones that continue to make jumps annually beyond the age their peers stagnate. It is within that subset that the majority seem to reach their zenith at 7. In other words stacking your odds by only betting on the winners. The more liberal your selection criteria is, the lower your response rate, is the conclusion I have came to where I am. For the remainder of bucks, culling starts at the bottom and begins at age 4. I am also convinced applying that management philosophy across the board would significantly lower your percentage of positive response at 7.

Excluding hunters that are not on board is part of it I had purposely left out of what I had typed. It is a critical piece of the puzzle.