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Thermals -- When do we get a bump? #8525997 02/08/22 02:22 AM
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I've been wondering for a while when we are going to see the market move to the next level. I know iray has a 1280x1040 thermal, but how long do we expect it to take for competition to drive us to the 1280x960-1040 level?

When will we see a market shift to1280 Thermals?
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Votes accepted starting: 02/08/22 02:22 AM
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Re: Thermals -- When do we get a bump? [Re: TLew] #8526052 02/08/22 03:28 AM
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Never say never…

But cost, size, and competition are all limiting factors , I’d say 10 years …


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Re: Thermals -- When do we get a bump? [Re: TLew] #8526098 02/08/22 04:22 AM
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Before I vote, I want to understand the question better to be sure I'm following.

When you ask "how long until the competition drives us to the 1280 resolution", what are you asking exactly? How long before there are 2 or 3 different 1280 scopes? How long before they under $8,000? How long before they replace 640's and 640's become the 384's of the thermal world? Not trying to be a smart-aleck, just really want to be sure what you're asking.


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Re: Thermals -- When do we get a bump? [Re: Outdoor Legacy] #8526232 02/08/22 01:24 PM
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Originally Posted by Outdoor Legacy
Before I vote, I want to understand the question better to be sure I'm following.

When you ask "how long until the competition drives us to the 1280 resolution", what are you asking exactly? How long before there are 2 or 3 different 1280 scopes? How long before they under $8,000? How long before they replace 640's and 640's become the 384's of the thermal world? Not trying to be a smart-aleck, just really want to be sure what you're asking.






From the perspective of someone works in this industry - how long do you think it will be before the 1280 resolution thermal replaces the 640 at a pricepoint low enough for main stream adoption? with mutiple units in the 8 to 10K price point?

Re: Thermals -- When do we get a bump? [Re: jdangler] #8526335 02/08/22 03:35 PM
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Originally Posted by jdangler
Originally Posted by Outdoor Legacy
Before I vote, I want to understand the question better to be sure I'm following.

When you ask "how long until the competition drives us to the 1280 resolution", what are you asking exactly? How long before there are 2 or 3 different 1280 scopes? How long before they under $8,000? How long before they replace 640's and 640's become the 384's of the thermal world? Not trying to be a smart-aleck, just really want to be sure what you're asking.






From the perspective of someone works in this industry - how long do you think it will be before the 1280 resolution thermal replaces the 640 at a pricepoint low enough for main stream adoption? with mutiple units in the 8 to 10K price point?


Bingo, you got it.

Re: Thermals -- When do we get a bump? [Re: TLew] #8527027 02/09/22 04:02 AM
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Thanks that helps a lot.

I guess I'll walk though this out loud .....so far there isn't a 1280 thermal on the market yet but there is one on the horizon, price is unknown. No one else has hinted at a higher (than 640) resolution yet and some industry leaders like Pulsar are still using 640 17 micron (vs 12 micron) sensors. If iRay does it and it's legit as good as we all hope then that immediately puts hard pressure on N-Vision and Pulsar. But the issue is, these thermal scope manufacturers use other companies sensors and if those companies don't have a suitable high resolution sensor then it's not even possible for these companies to compete. This is all pure speculation and rambling.

I'm thinking it's going to be a lot further away than closer. I'm going to go with 5+ years bare minimum. I'm not saying 7-10 years isn't out of the question and I think anything under 4-5 years is a pipe dream.

Just my 2 cents, I guess we can come back in 5 years and see how wrong I am, which won't surprise me. roflmao

Jason


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Re: Thermals -- When do we get a bump? [Re: TLew] #8527168 02/09/22 01:19 PM
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Very well thought out response Jason. I'm surprised that mfgs aren't at least adding higher resolution display screens which would be the first step in my mind. It doesn't fix the sensor, but it's a "selling" data point.

At the end of the day, I guess I'm hopeful it's earlier than 5 years. I still have a Trail (1) XP50 that does what I want it to do, but I'd love to upgrade and am waiting for the next evolution.

Re: Thermals -- When do we get a bump? [Re: TLew] #8527309 02/09/22 02:44 PM
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Originally Posted by TLew
At the end of the day, I guess I'm hopeful it's earlier than 5 years.


More than 5 years ago, I was toying with dropping a lot of money on a Trijicon 60mm 4.5x IR Hunter or waiting a year or two for the 1020s or 1280s to come out. ULIS, the core manufacturer for Pulsar at the time, already had them developed. So, do I risk it and buy the best scope around for a LOT of money, only to have it possibly outclassed in a couple of years, or do I wait? Ultimately, I decided to spent the money. Now, more than 5 years later, my Trij., is old and no longer top in the field but we still don't have the HD cores on weapon sights. Instead of geometric improvements like being seen with TVs and photo gear, we are getting organic level improvements. Ergonomics have improved. Image quality has improved with a slight change in hardware and many changes in firmware, but we are still topped at 640. You can now get onboard recording or a laser rangefinder, etc....but only on 640 and below.

I would hope the jump would be made within the next 5 years as well, but I have already played that game once and have been disappointed. I will be in the market for a new thermal weapon sight in the near future and given what it available today, it will be another 640 and the decision on what to buy will simply be determined by features and ergonomics. I won't hesitate to buy this time like I did last time. Waiting for the amazingly great 1280s is a fool's game, I am sorry to say. It will come, but so too will its successor. My guess is that most of what we will see in the next 5 years will mostly be more of the subtle improvements on the 640 theme, maybe continued shrinkage in size and weight, and new and improved features along with tchotchkes.

I sincerely hope I am wrong.

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Re: Thermals -- When do we get a bump? [Re: TLew] #8527337 02/09/22 02:58 PM
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I will also add that we are wanting a transition to 1280 now when an all powerful thermal company like FLIR could not manage to bring to market a 640 12 micron core for their thermals and many other companies are so utterly confounded by the horrific difficulties in having audio AND video properly synced that they don't even bother to offer audio...because you know, we all like silent movies just as much as we did in the 1920s.


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Re: Thermals -- When do we get a bump? [Re: TLew] #8530089 02/13/22 12:40 AM
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How bout now. 4k with the wraith 4k max. 4000x3000 sensor. Is this what your asking?


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Re: Thermals -- When do we get a bump? [Re: TLew] #8530126 02/13/22 01:53 AM
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Wraith isn’t thermal unless they put out a new product I don’t know about. Good to see video/night vision scopes moving up though

Re: Thermals -- When do we get a bump? [Re: TLew] #8530229 02/13/22 04:47 AM
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Dang it, I got sidetracked, It was right next to the pulsar thermals I was looking at. Just read it was a digital scope with 4k


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Re: Thermals -- When do we get a bump? [Re: TLew] #8531009 02/14/22 03:20 AM
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I can tell a hog from a deer at 800 yards with my 640 core I can’t think of a reason I need anything better than what I got

Re: Thermals -- When do we get a bump? [Re: SapperTitan] #8542384 02/26/22 11:10 PM
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Originally Posted by SapperTitan
I can tell a hog from a deer at 800 yards with my 640 core I can’t think of a reason I need anything better than what I got


This and 90% of the market not willing to pay will be why we won’t see high resolution thermal on the market.

If I had $$ on the line Id bet that The next big step will be fused thermal digital NV hunting optics modeled after a couple optics coming down the defense sector pipeline.

The hunting industry optics will always follow the military.

Re: Thermals -- When do we get a bump? [Re: SapperTitan] #8544166 02/28/22 10:28 PM
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Originally Posted by SapperTitan
I can tell a hog from a deer at 800 yards with my 640 core I can’t think of a reason I need anything better than what I got


If you like the gear that you have and it works for you, then yeah, there may be no "need" for anything better for you.

Clarity/resolution is sort of like reliability. Nobody complains about it being too good, too reliable, having too clear of an image.


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Re: Thermals -- When do we get a bump? [Re: SapperTitan] #8569838 04/02/22 03:58 AM
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Originally Posted by SapperTitan
I can tell a hog from a deer at 800 yards with my 640 core I can’t think of a reason I need anything better than what I got



Dragging up a couple month old thread,

But remember Bill Gates once said no one needed more than 640 K of RAM and Ken Olson of Digital Equipment Corp back in 1977 said "no one needs a computer in their home."

I'm running a 320 thermal and it kills pigs just fine, I can tell pigs from cows out to as far as I can see on the properties I hunt (less than 400 acres) but if someone came out with a 1280 for $3,500 I'd be running up the credit card in a hurry.

I remember not needing power windows or heated seats in my cars, but now they are must haves.


Guess what I'm saying is, I don't need it when I can't afford it, I can make do with low specifications that I can afford, but when the prices come down those cool features become must haves.


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Re: Thermals -- When do we get a bump? [Re: VAFish] #8570000 04/02/22 03:35 PM
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Originally Posted by VAFish
I'm running a 320 thermal and it kills pigs just fine, I can tell pigs from cows out to as far as I can see on the properties I hunt (less than 400 acres) but if someone came out with a 1280 for $3,500 I'd be running up the credit card in a hurry.

Guess what I'm saying is, I don't need it when I can't afford it, I can make do with low specifications that I can afford, but when the prices come down those cool features become must haves.


There is a balance, no doubt. "Need" is often a very subjective concept when talking about gear like this. If 320 is working for your situation, that is great. I have told this story before, but when I was doing demos for Third Coast Thermal, we sold a bunch of Pulsar Core RQX30Vs to people and most folks either returned them (because they really did have a crappy image) or kept it as a scanner and guest scope and bought a second, better scope. One guy, however, loved his. He didn't have much money to spend and wasn't a hunter, but he did have a barnyard with chickens and coyotes/coons/skunks were common problems in his barnyard. Most of his shooting was inside 25-50 yards and I think his barnyard limit was only 75. The Core was good enough to tell the difference between a coyote/coon/skunk and a chicken at those distances and he was able to protect his chickens. He didn't own any dogs or cats and so wasn't worry about distinguishing between his pets and the raiders. He was quite happy with his purchased because it was the cheapest thermal available at the time and it did exactly what he needed.

I hunted with the Core for several hunts and came to absolutely hate it. It worked, but as the shooter, I hate to work hard trying to sus out identifications and often orientations (which is the front end) of the critters I was thinking I was going to shoot. In an open field with ground level vegetation only, I could ID hogs beyond 100-150 yards, but that was largely by behavior. Add in 12-18" grass and things got hinky. Looking through the core was like looking through thermal you could never quite focus. It was functional in limited circumstances, but frustrating to use in virtually all of them.

I run Trijicons now and when I hunt with folks running lesser optics, I often have to identify questionable targets for them. However, there are still times when I can have trouble distinguishing between calves and hogs given vegetation and atmospheric conditions. The same goes for coyotes and fawns. I have put the stalk on more than one pig shaped rock as well. I would gladly welcome better technology.


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Re: Thermals -- When do we get a bump? [Re: Double Naught Spy] #8570067 04/02/22 05:30 PM
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Originally Posted by Double Naught Spy
However, there are still times when I can have trouble distinguishing between calves and hogs given vegetation and atmospheric conditions. The same goes for coyotes and fawns. I have put the stalk on more than one pig shaped rock as well. I would gladly welcome better technology.

Yep, my hunting buddy and I have had numerous discussions regarding "Bush Hogs" and "Stump Hogs". Tall grass/weeds are definitely a hindrance. I think I once spent between 10-15 minutes trying to identify an animal that was only about 50-60 yards away. I moved uphill, downhill, sideways and back before finally determining that it was a calf. There were several times when I was 90% convinced that it was a hog!
Right now I'm using a Trijicon weapon sight, but only have a very early handheld monocular for scanning. It's 1X magnification, with a sensor resolution that's definitely low end and a 9Hz refresh rate. Perhaps some day I'll upgrade, but right now I'm not hunting enough to warrant the expense. Now, if prices were to drop some more…


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Re: Thermals -- When do we get a bump? [Re: der Teufel] #8570136 04/02/22 08:00 PM
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"I run Trijicons now and when I hunt with folks running lesser optics, I often have to identify questionable targets for them. However, there are still times when I can have trouble distinguishing between calves and hogs given vegetation and atmospheric conditions. The same goes for coyotes and fawns. I have put the stalk on more than one pig shaped rock as well. I would gladly welcome better technology."

I was always impressed with your hog hunting videos when you would increase magnification and not lose much if any clarity especially under good conditions. You had mentioned there hasn't been much change in their technology. Maybe the newer Trijicons are better in adverse conditions. My old Pulsar monocular(Quantum XD38A) was useless in higher magnification not to mention I would have to constantly nuc it under unfavorable conditions. So when a 640 monocular unit came along for a reasonable price I jumped on it. The difference from the older technology is amazing. Now my Pulsar scope, also four years old(Trail XQ50) doesn't look so good anymore. lol It's funny that those with 640 units are looking for better technology and when I moved up to 640 I figured I reached Nirvana and hog heaven at the same time. Just having much better clarity in crappy conditions, which is most of the time here in south Louisiana, was worth the upgrade. As they say it's what's you're use to. My brother has an older Flir 320 handheld. When he tried my new unit I had to pry it out of his hands to get it back. I believe I just cost him some money. Hopefully prices continue to come down and I'll find that 640 scope for around $3500.



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