LeoLabs, is monitoring a close approach event involving two dead satellites. The birds counterrotating orbits intersect today over Pittsburg, PA, at 5:39 pm Central.

Because the dead birds are in counterrotating orbits and one of the birds, IRAS (Infrared Astronomical Satellite) is very large, with a mass over 1000 kilograms, a head-on impact at a velocity of 14.9 kilometers per second (33,330 mph) would be catastrophic and add thousands of pieces of space debris into low earth orbit.

The concern of a head-on space collision like this is the potential chain reaction as each satellite collision turns two objects into thousands of smaller objects that endanger other satellites we depend on. The more space junk in orbit makes it more difficult to plan future launches and manage birds in orbit.

The issue is many of the now dead or soon to fail birds were launched with no plans to de-orbit after their missions are complete. It’s much more difficult to track the smaller objects and we still don’t have a scaleable solution to collect space debris.

SpaceNews

LeoLabs

LeoLabs Twitter

Blue Moon

Earthquakes, Locust swarms, Pandemics, flooding, droughts, forest fires, possible peace plan in Israel Etc...............its the final countdown man..........giddyup

Do they have wings and feathers? Why are they being called birds?

You would think the bible meant natural disasters ,not man made disasters.

I have a feeling the term "Biblical" is about to take on a whole new, modern meaning.

Nuclear war is man made.............Armageddon is man made.

Satellites often deploy solar arrays that look like wings, plus they fly and are fragile like birds, so in the early days of NASA someone called it a bird and now it's part of space lexicon.

I read they were supposed to miss each other

Dont look over here , look over there

Great, the way my week has been going I bet a part nails me. Splat. DRT.

I have had one of those weeks too.. and it's only Humpday!

It can get worse..................

Or better.

NASA

Need
Another
Satellite
ASAP

I like that. My take

NASA

Need
Another
Seven trillion dollar Satellite
ASAP

LeoLabs is projecting a near miss by only 13 to 87 meters, that's way I used the word "possible" in the title. In space terms it's going to be a very close call. The data sets they are using for modeling are very good but not specific enough to pinpoint the intersection where they will pass this afternoon.

There doesn't appear to be any danger of a ground impact. The danger is to what is already in space and what's to come. Let's hope they miss.

So the sky really could be falling.

No danger of ground impact but just like the ocean, space is getting more polluted with debris. It's difficult to track small space debris and some of it is just based on computer modeling.

LeoLabs is an interesting small startup founded by wicked smart guys. They are helping to monitor low earth orbit for clients like SpaceX and every other launch and satellite company.

1-800-ELONMUSK

Tesla will report results at exactly the same time today.

Hum

And we wait...

Update - In the last few hours, LeoLabs has increased the probability impact from 1 in 1000, to 1 in 100, and now to 1 in 20 based on new data.

The GSSR decommissioned US spy satellite appears to be on a path that will pass directly above the IRAS satellite. The GSSR passing directly above has an 18 meter boom designed to point down toward earth. It’s unclear if the GSSR is stable or spinning. While LeoLabs still believes it will be a very near miss, if the GSSR is stable with the boom pointing downward, it greatly increases the chances of impact.

Blue Moon

Thanks for the update BlueMoon...............most people don't understand that most everything is run now days from above.

keep us posted ...............or maybe we just go dark

Looks like Christie Brinkley

I heard the other day that one of the Direct TV satellites may explode due to a faulty battery system.

It happens. The longest week of my life was the week after Galaxy 5 died unexpectedly.

Looks like Oxner’s sneakers

I'm nowhere near an expert on this, but I have to wonder what the chances are of some type of re-entry in the event of a collision. I know that is apparently not a big concern right now, but is there a chance, depending on the angle of impact, that it may cause some debris to get through without completely burning up?

Less than 2 hours till the fireworks start. Got the beer in the fridge ready to go! We are all gonna die! This is gonna be fun!

The aliens will stop it.
Dont look over here , look over there.

I'm still pretty sure that's Christie Brinkley

here she was in 2017...................scroll down

https://www.ar15.com/forums/general...p-We-re-gonna-die-/5-2024752/&page=2

My AI says its Christie

https://www.bing.com/images/search?view=detailV2&ccid=76J21anG&id=27596455D9917E250226CB0EBAB5DB9FEDA6EE79&pbcid=SIHcFugHWecAAA&thid=OIP.76J21anG66BLVzq8G9Fg7QHaIh&pimgurl=http%3a%2f%2fgerylmortensen.com%2fforum-images%2fMortensen-Skylab-Hat.jpg&ppageurl=https%3a%2f%2ftexashuntingforum.com%2fforum%2fubbthreads.php%2ftopics%2f7732530%23Post7732530&iss=VSI&selectedIndex=1&count=35&adlt=strict

shes cute

If the scrappers that patrol my neighborhood on trash day ever get ahold of a spacecraft with a pick-up bed we won't have to worry about any metal debris in space.

LeoLabs via Twitter: Final update prior to close approach: 47 meter predicted miss distance, w/ increased separation in the cross-track direction. Next scheduled radar passes for both objects to occur approximately two hours after the event.

So we wont know for 2 hours after the event if we live or die? I aint sure I have enough beer now.

BOAKYAG

I think that should be kilometers per minute. Around 18000 mph seems to be normal satellite speed. I'm not sure anything could hold an orbit traveling 33,300 mph.

They are in counterrotating low earth orbits so the 14.9 kilometers per second was the projected head-on impact velocity, not how fast each is traveling.

Well, it's 5:44 pm, any news or bangs seen?

Now I feel stupid for not seeing that.

Nothing official as it takes time to process the various radar data but there were clear skies in Pittsburg and no visible impact. Early reports are GGSE is overflying Canada with no deviation in orbit - meaning it's likely just a near miss.

Blue Moon

That was a close one!

Sooooooo, no fireworks?

Sounds like a job for the new Space Force, go get all of the dead satellites.

not this time.
Look over here , dont look over there

Here is a cool visualization from LeoLabs that depicts 14,006 objects in Low Earth Orbit. There are over 250,000 pieces of space debris in orbit but only a small fraction is currently being tracked. LeoLabs is trying to solve that problem. They provides space debris tracking and collision prevention services for Low Earth Orbit satellite operators.

Wonder how crowded it is up there? On average a near miss occurs once per day with satellites passing within 100 meters. Most of those have less than a 1 in 1000 chance of collision and are much smaller in size than the large car size IRIS that was at risk in this thread. Possible collisions don’t make the news unless the risk is greater than 1 in 1000. The concern of any collision is the possibility of a cascading event that will take out other satellites and potentially create a unmanageable debris field.

LeoLabs can track tiny cubestats that are only .25U ( 4”x4”x1”) and even smaller debris.

They have ground radar in Alaska, Texas (Midland Space Radar), New Zealand.

The VISUALIZATION on their site is so much better as it's in real time and much smoother. I made this animated gif with some screen captures and it doesn't do it justice. Click the link to play with it. If you double click when you get there it makes it larger and if you grab the earth you can rotate it.

Blue Moon

That is pretty cool.