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Re: AR restrictions, are they working???? [Re: Justin T] #1007496 11/02/09 03:29 PM
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Originally Posted By: Justin T
Originally Posted By: rifleman
Originally Posted By: PHishTX


[i] Criteria:
The criteria used for candidate counties were: the county currently must be a one-buck county, 60% of the buck harvest in the county must consist of bucks less than 3.5 years of age, and the county must have a contiguous border with another county in which antler restriction regulations have been implemented.




they have no idea as to what the age percentages of bucks killed is for a county. We don't have check stations that every deer must be taken to.... so it's not really possible (and not real sure a random sample can be reliable)


Dude, you realize that biologists go to deer processors to get this info right? It may not be all of the deer taken, but it is a good representation.


um DUDE,... what percentage of deer do you feel make the trip to the processor? 63.745 w/ tolerance +/- .001 . I saw 8 go straight from field to freezer last year....YOU tell me what their ages are.


Re: AR restrictions, are they working???? [Re: passthru] #1007551 11/02/09 03:50 PM
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Originally Posted By: passthru

I didn't say they were starving or dying off. I'm saying that the herd needs older deer to be a healthy herd.


This makes no sense. The younger deer are the healthiest deer. If TPWD is concerned about "herd health", then they should make sure no deer lives to be 2 1/2!



Re: AR restrictions, are they working???? [Re: postoak] #1007558 11/02/09 03:52 PM
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I guess ignorance is a disease and it's at pandemic levels here.



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Re: AR restrictions, are they working???? [Re: rifleman] #1007670 11/02/09 04:32 PM
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Originally Posted By: rifleman

um DUDE,... what percentage of deer do you feel make the trip to the processor? 63.745 w/ tolerance +/- .001 . I saw 8 go straight from field to freezer last year....YOU tell me what their ages are.


If anything, judging deer from the processor would OVERestimate age. You have 2 types of hunters, those that are selective with age, and those that aren't. So those that aren't just shoot any deer. Those that are, shoot OLDER deer. So it would be skewed to older deer.

If they are seeing a bad trend with that data, you better believe the full data set would be even more in the favor that deer taken are too young.

You can argue all you want about stats, but I bet even the VERY BASIC knowledge of stats that I have and work with on a daily basis is better than yours. You wouldn't know a p-value from a Mann-Whitney U nonparametric if it bit you in the arse. And you are the one trying to say that a scientists stats are wrong.


Re: AR restrictions, are they working???? [Re: Justin T] #1007764 11/02/09 05:04 PM
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Thread going south in a hurry!



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Re: AR restrictions, are they working???? [Re: Justin T] #1007790 11/02/09 05:14 PM
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yes it is & I recently found out I'm an uneducated idiot. juggle


Re: AR restrictions, are they working???? [Re: dogcatcher] #1007853 11/02/09 05:35 PM
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Originally Posted By: dogcatcher
Helo and Hoytman, you 2 seem to be on the same page, but from prior posts you are both hunting smaller tracts of land, less than quarter sections. In your cases the it would be for your benefit to try to get all of your neighbors on the same page to manage a larger area. That can be the snow ball in hell situation.

For most of the anti AR comments I still have not heard a solution except to get rid of it. Is that a solution or just forget it "we want to shoot whatever". Which actually might be a solution, if all of the less than 13" bucks could be killed off in one year the "bad" genes would almost be wiped out. I would not want to be hunting in those areas for a few years. I would guess the deer population would be way down for quite a few years. Or the TP&W could spend millions importing record rack breeders and get our license fees up and over $100.


Sorry, but your whole argument rests on making horns bigger. Who decided horns needed to be bigger?


Re: AR restrictions, are they working???? [Re: dogcatcher] #1007861 11/02/09 05:38 PM
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Originally Posted By: dogcatcher
Now now 7mag, this has been an enlightening discussion. I heard through the grapevine that in the future TP&W will also have counties where you cannot shoot a deer over 18" wide. That is when I want to see the ship hit the sand!



Hopefully this was in jest, but it would definitely help grow bigger antlers.

Reminds me of the old lady in church, preacher was against drinking, she said AMEN, against gambling, AMEN, against fornication, AMEN, against drugs, AMEN, against tobacco, AMEN, preacher said it was a sin to gossip.... she gets up and leaves, said the preacher quit preaching and went to meddling...


Re: AR restrictions, are they working???? [Re: Justin T] #1007876 11/02/09 05:45 PM
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Originally Posted By: Justin T
Originally Posted By: rifleman
Originally Posted By: PHishTX


[i] Criteria:
The criteria used for candidate counties were: the county currently must be a one-buck county, 60% of the buck harvest in the county must consist of bucks less than 3.5 years of age, and the county must have a contiguous border with another county in which antler restriction regulations have been implemented.




they have no idea as to what the age percentages of bucks killed is for a county. We don't have check stations that every deer must be taken to.... so it's not really possible (and not real sure a random sample can be reliable)


Dude, you realize that biologists go to deer processors to get this info right? It may not be all of the deer taken, but it is a good representation.


No its not. It's low grading. Your best, better, older, hunters are more likely to process their own. It's also not accounting for the fact that most of the deer processed in a plant, came from somewhere else, not that county. It takes no consideration for why that deer was chosen either, cull, cripple, non-symmetric, whatever. There are so many bad points the data is skewed before its ever taken.

It's bad science, and bad statistics.


Re: AR restrictions, are they working???? [Re: sig226fan (Rguns.com)] #1007890 11/02/09 05:48 PM
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Originally Posted By: sig226fan (Rguns.com)
Originally Posted By: dogcatcher
Now now 7mag, this has been an enlightening discussion. I heard through the grapevine that in the future TP&W will also have counties where you cannot shoot a deer over 18" wide. That is when I want to see the ship hit the sand!



Hopefully this was in jest, but it would definitely help grow bigger antlers.

Reminds me of the old lady in church, preacher was against drinking, she said AMEN, against gambling, AMEN, against fornication, AMEN, against drugs, AMEN, against tobacco, AMEN, preacher said it was a sin to gossip.... she gets up and leaves, said the preacher quit preaching and went to meddling...




With so many chithouse biologists, I figured this was as good as all of the other suggestions.



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Re: AR restrictions, are they working???? [Re: PHishTX] #1007892 11/02/09 05:49 PM
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Originally Posted By: PHishTX
Quote:
Dude, you realize that biologists go to deer processors to get this info right? It may not be all of the deer taken, but it is a good representation.


Dude, do YOU realize that AGE STRUCTURE is a made-up problem??

How good of a representation can processors/dead deer be of the AGE live deer in the herd??THEY DO NOT KNOW THE AGE OF THE LIVE DEER AT THE START OF THE SURVEY. (WORDS OF Mike Berger TPWD DIERCTOR) HOW can they possibly age these dead deer, and come up with an AGE of what is still out there ?

What percentage of the county process at home? Are all counties the same in this respect?
What percentage of the county took deer a processor in their home county?

They do their surveys for the first "x"(say 100) number of deer brought in.
Why did these hunter harvest their deer early in the season?
Lack of hunting time in the field? They want to wait for the rut to horn hunt?
Is hunting experience involved?

All they are measruing is hunter selectivity.

Fine COUNT 'em, but don't make up AGE stuff, AND THEN BASE A REGULATION ON THE STUFF THAT IS MADE_UP!!

Why don't they survey the Taxidermy shops?
Think they will have deer with more age on 'em? But that would skew the data from what they want to represent.

TPWD had a Review of their scientific Methods back in 2005. One of the comments was that Roadkill would be a more representative sample.

Is this only about the age of bucks? Do they age the does? They are part of the herd too. Where is the DOE DATA?


No doubt, roadkill would be naturally selective and a better statistical tool than processors or taxi-shops, or voluntary checks.

Mandatory checks would be the best way of measuring all deer, and the percentages that didn't check would be negligible in the overall statistical analysis. A good scientist would minimize the negative variables in a study, and would gladly make the study public and desire scrutiny.


Re: AR restrictions, are they working???? [Re: sig226fan (Rguns.com)] #1007904 11/02/09 05:51 PM
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Shoot I know older hunters who have hunted all their lives who don't know how or are too busy or too lazy to process their own meat. I know one who wants to shoot mature deer but when a half way decent rack comes out judgment turns south.

And for all the complaining I still don't see any evidence offered for the "don't work" side of the argument. The state has plenty of "does work" evidence even if you guys refuse to acknowledge it.



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Re: AR restrictions, are they working???? [Re: passthru] #1007905 11/02/09 05:51 PM
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Originally Posted By: passthru
Again with you, argument with no evidence. The biologists have done studies. Have done surveys and looked at herd size and make up. They talk to land owners, look at range conditions and know what is needed for a healthy herd.

What do you have besides a weak argument?

I didn't say they were starving or dying off. I'm saying that the herd needs older deer to be a healthy herd. It works with cattle, elephants, elk, deer and humans. It's biology not cryology. Show me the biological proof TPW is wrong and then I will believe you have something to gripe about. Other than that you are just crying foul when no foul has occured.



NO.

Age of the herd does not make it healthier.

No rancher would want an old herd. They want a balanced herd.

If we really wanted a healthier herd, we'd be shooting the smaller and larger deer based on body size, not antlers.


Re: AR restrictions, are they working???? [Re: sig226fan (Rguns.com)] #1007913 11/02/09 05:53 PM
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Everytime someone says shoot a doe instead.....

A) So you can shoot a buck instead?
B) So that there's a 50-50 chance we are hurting the gene pool rather than helping it? (at least with bucks there is something you can base the decision on)
C) So that we can further reduce our overall population of deer? (killing females is the only way to reduce overall numbers, it's in direct correlation)


Re: AR restrictions, are they working???? [Re: postoak] #1007923 11/02/09 05:55 PM
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Originally Posted By: postoak
Originally Posted By: passthru

I didn't say they were starving or dying off. I'm saying that the herd needs older deer to be a healthy herd.


This makes no sense. The younger deer are the healthiest deer. If TPWD is concerned about "herd health", then they should make sure no deer lives to be 2 1/2!


Plus it takes less to sustain younger smaller deer than older larger deer.... better keep shootin those older deer...


Re: AR restrictions, are they working???? [Re: Justin T] #1007955 11/02/09 06:02 PM
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Originally Posted By: Justin T
Originally Posted By: rifleman

um DUDE,... what percentage of deer do you feel make the trip to the processor? 63.745 w/ tolerance +/- .001 . I saw 8 go straight from field to freezer last year....YOU tell me what their ages are.


If anything, judging deer from the processor would OVERestimate age. You have 2 types of hunters, those that are selective with age, and those that aren't. So those that aren't just shoot any deer. Those that are, shoot OLDER deer. So it would be skewed to older deer.

If they are seeing a bad trend with that data, you better believe the full data set would be even more in the favor that deer taken are too young.

You can argue all you want about stats, but I bet even the VERY BASIC knowledge of stats that I have and work with on a daily basis is better than yours. You wouldn't know a p-value from a Mann-Whitney U nonparametric if it bit you in the arse. And you are the one trying to say that a scientists stats are wrong.


One key thing about statistics, is choosing the one you want to prove your point. And knowing your audience before you use them.

As for not knowing stats, I guess that M.S. in Mathematics came in a pack of baseball cards. I teach statistics, and scientific selection criteria, and these are horrible examples.

And there's no way Mann-Whitney or Wilcox is accurate in this thread, the entire form of genetic study within one species limits the relevance since the samples can't be independent. And MWW has issues in small sample sizes, of which studying a few dead deer vs the whole of the populace in Texas is definitely small.


Re: AR restrictions, are they working???? [Re: dogcatcher] #1007960 11/02/09 06:04 PM
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Originally Posted By: dogcatcher
Originally Posted By: sig226fan (Rguns.com)
Originally Posted By: dogcatcher
Now now 7mag, this has been an enlightening discussion. I heard through the grapevine that in the future TP&W will also have counties where you cannot shoot a deer over 18" wide. That is when I want to see the ship hit the sand!



Hopefully this was in jest, but it would definitely help grow bigger antlers.

Reminds me of the old lady in church, preacher was against drinking, she said AMEN, against gambling, AMEN, against fornication, AMEN, against drugs, AMEN, against tobacco, AMEN, preacher said it was a sin to gossip.... she gets up and leaves, said the preacher quit preaching and went to meddling...




With so many chithouse biologists, I figured this was as good as all of the other suggestions.


I agree.

And I loved it.

Do you remember the turmoil I caused a couple years ago when I had the press release posted where TPWD was going to ban the use of calibers below .30 for deer? The overreaction/panic was the same.


Re: AR restrictions, are they working???? [Re: passthru] #1007967 11/02/09 06:06 PM
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Originally Posted By: passthru
Shoot I know older hunters who have hunted all their lives who don't know how or are too busy or too lazy to process their own meat. I know one who wants to shoot mature deer but when a half way decent rack comes out judgment turns south.

And for all the complaining I still don't see any evidence offered for the "don't work" side of the argument. The state has plenty of "does work" evidence even if you guys refuse to acknowledge it.


Why won't they publish the evidence then? All they turn loose is the summary of the data and their selected charts.

Their own scientist say that it high-grades? And who decided there was a problem?


Re: AR restrictions, are they working???? [Re: sig226fan (Rguns.com)] #1007968 11/02/09 06:06 PM
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Your wasting your time vernon, you will never convert em.



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Re: AR restrictions, are they working???? [Re: Hoytman] #1007983 11/02/09 06:10 PM
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Originally Posted By: Hoytman
Your wasting your time vernon, you will never convert em.


"We will not go quietly into the night!" We will not vanish without a fight! We're going to live on! We're going to survive!


Re: AR restrictions, are they working???? [Re: sig226fan (Rguns.com)] #1007986 11/02/09 06:11 PM
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You have to stand for something, or you'll fall for anything


Re: AR restrictions, are they working???? [Re: sig226fan (Rguns.com)] #1007999 11/02/09 06:13 PM
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When it comes to the government telling us what to do...

First they came for the meat-hunters, and I did not speak out—because I was not a meat-hunter;
Then they came for the assault rifle enthusiast, and I did not speak out—because I was not a assault rifle enthusiast;
Then they came for the small land owners, and I did not speak out—because I was not a small land owner;
Then they came for the archers, and I did not speak out—because I was not a archer;
Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak out for me.





Original...

First they came for the communists, and I did not speak out—because I was not a communist;
Then they came for the socialists, and I did not speak out—because I was not a socialist;
Then they came for the trade unionists, and I did not speak out—because I was not a trade unionist;
Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out—because I was not a Jew;
Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak out for me.


Re: AR restrictions, are they working???? [Re: sig226fan (Rguns.com)] #1008189 11/02/09 07:35 PM
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Originally Posted By: sig226fan (Rguns.com)
You have to stand for something, or you'll fall for anything


Hahahahaha Aaron Tippin moment at its finest!


Re: AR restrictions, are they working???? [Re: Justin T] #1008213 11/02/09 07:42 PM
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http://www.tpwd.state.tx.us/huntwild/wild/game_management/deer/antler_restrictions/

Someone prove this to be false. TPWD provides some data, it can be as flawed as you want, but it certainly doesn't support the OPPOSITE.


Re: AR restrictions, are they working???? [Re: Justin T] #1008251 11/02/09 07:54 PM
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Do you just blindly believe everything you read or see?
That's a sales pitch, not a scientific paper, nor even a summary of a scientific paper. Is that all they have? Surely we based public policy on something more than that? Are there other statistics or just the ones they chose to share? What about the raw data? What about the reliability studies on their data and collection methods?

I agree, I am not proving it to be false. I am saying that what they are making public is statistically unreliable at best, and a sham at worst.


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