Scouting Report....

We had 3-4 hundred plus birds a week and half sgo. Mixed gaddies, wigeon, teal, pintail. Was thinking we were going to have a good opener.

Scouted this morning for the weekend and saw maybe 40 birds....

I've got pretty low expectations.

Is there food? No food they won’t stick around.

In the same boat here, two weeks ago we had hundreds of birds. Drove out to check water levels this morning and maybe 100 birds or so. Hoping this cold front pushes new birds in more birds than it pushes out.

Nothing substantial, in years past we had a lot of food but the lake went dry and has been grazed heavily.

The lake filled up but only really flooded short grass and sump weeds.

None of the normal water plants were able to grow over the summer...

There is a major cold front coming...birds today mean nothing for the weekend....those birds will probably be gone by Sat.

but what if the cold front brings more birds to replace the existing birds that will head south leaving you with a much higher bird count over all, resulting in a positive delta?

We need an equation

(24-X=M)+R-M = true delta of ducks

That's the point I'm trying to make G...birds being there is good...but numbers mean nothing. Weather is going to change a lot between now and then.

I agree with your formula but only if M = mallards, R = trash ducks (meaning all other ducks) and X is temp...otherwise, I don't agree with your formula

Not seeing much here

A true delta has three parts. This equation can't be correct.

I like to duck hunt

Check your fields, they are on sheet water fields with food.

I’m driving through Arkansas right now and there’s freaking mallards everywhere.

He was correct

Is there anything about rising and falling lake levels in there?

You need this "(+/-)L" variable, that is the third part.

hunt big water and hope to pull migrators. Birds wont have the area figured out and should be gullible. Throw a big spread and hope for the best.

Scouted a flooded timber hole on Sunday...surprised to see a bunch of mallards in it this early. Wasn't surprised to see a bunch of wood ducks. About half a billion acorns that they're going to town on. Unfortunately this hole only floods and is good between certain high water levels. Wife planned a vacation for this weekend...and with no more rain - water level will have dropped by next weekend.

Drove to Wichita Falls Saturday. On the return trip ducks on several tanks until about 30 miles south of W.F. went locally Tue. saw one Baldpate. Waiting for front.

No need to scout, I learn so much on the THF.

Saw 3 tank turds today on a spot we’ve got. Judd is coming into town and we’re gonna kill em

We got a bunch of wood ducks on our deer lease in Montague now. It is just weird to see them there in flooded trees that are dry 99% of the time.

ducks are on their way with this front!

Prove it. Show us your formula.

He purposely left off F(x) = no ducks in central Texas

Dammit the font pushed 'em out of our ponds and no newbies showed up so far. I'm not shooting anyway cuz I'm working my new pup, but I really want her to get see what it's all about and get her going. There are a few showing up, I guess that'll have to do.

Larry, you must of done the formula wrong, the answer should not be 0

Agreed. And I've always been a bit more apt for duck math than most... back to the drawing board.

There were 100s of ducks in this area that had maybe a dozen 2 days ago..fingers crossed!

Those tank turds multiplied