Guadalupe county numbers down?

We are on an MLD property in Guadalupe county, this was our 11th season.
The amount of deer seen by all of the hunters I visit with are down as is the quality of the bucks.
I have heard from a taxidermist in the area that he has seen a lot less bucks this season as well.
And reportedly a few other places in the area report the same.

Anyone here hunt the same county (we are between Seguin and Stockdale)?

I have to wonder we had a die off, been pretty dry, the tanks have all been very low all year..

Just curious

Was not the best of years' rain wise, but I ain't heard of no die off.

My parents and most of my family live in Guadalupe county, have a lot of friends that live and hunt in Guadalupe county. I've seen some nice deer photos passed around from the county this year and none of them had anything to say about an abnormally bad year etc. To me you probably just had a slow season.

gotcha
thanks

ccoker, I have a couple friends that hunt on a lease just south of Seguin on the river and they said the same thing.
Corn piled up all under their feeders. They had plenty of nice deer on game cam all summer though so they think it was just a slow season due to them having way too many acorns this year on their place.

They had one that I think would push 160 and a couple other 140-150" deer and they never laid eyes on any of them and didn't even get pics of the big one after they shed velvet.

Are too many deer being taken because of mld tags?

I have been there when the deer seemed to just disappear ...when we had acorns everywhere we had to turn off our feeders as nothing was eating the corn. This went on throughout the season ..however, we did start to see deer at the end of deer season. When we had the problem of over harvesting our problem was not as bad as the acorn thing. The deer still ate the corn and we did see some deer. Either problem needs to be addressed by having a process to count the deer each year to keep a handle the size of the heard. If ya have a lot of acorns don't expect to see very many deer. However, take a look at the feeders late in the year when most of the acorns will be diminished.
There is something you can do to start getting pics of deer without corn. When deer are chasing does they really don't eat as much with that in mind I would concentrate of putting out a lot of scents. you should get some action like scrapes and you should also see more does and bucks. If you don't ..something else could be the problem. I have seen dogs or coyotes run deer out of the area but the cameras should help define your problem. A camera every 50 -70 acres will tell the story.
Don't give up ..keep trying whatever might help ...sooner or later it will become apparent what the problem is. Keep in touch with us as we all are interested..good luck.

I seriously doubt that happens very often

The folks that take the time and energy to get on MLD aren't doing it to overkill a herd

MLD tags are issued based off of survey numbers and/or data they have for that specific area. Most of the time the number of tags will be lower than what are really needed on some places. If I go to the TWIMS site and use the tag estimator for my 234 acres here in Western Goliad County it only will give me 1 doe Permit and 0 buck Permits. IIRC I have to plug in over 300 acres to get 3 doe permits and finally get 1 buck permit...to get 2 buck permits you have to have over 640 acres. Once you are under MLD then you are bound by the tags issued and cannot use any tags off of your hunting license. So in my case on my land, I could only shoot one doe and no bucks. If I used my license tags only I can shoot 2 bucks total but 1 buck over 13" and 1 unbranched(or 2 unbranched) and then 2 does either archery or general season doe days or ML season. I can shoot more deer off of my license than under MLD in my area of the county. Survey in my area shows fewer deer and lower deer density than actual numbers I see year in and year out. I have taken way more does than what the survey shows I should take and my numbers have remained steady over the last 8 yrs....the buck to doe ratio has improved.

I would bet that mast crop was the issue with deer sightings. I had a huge crop in back to back years....2018 and 2019 and my deer sightings were down both those years when hunting...but trail cam showed the deer were still here at the feeders at night. I had to turn down the corn feeders and I have always fed year round free choice protein...the consumption was very low but still enough to get deer on cameras.

I saw photos of several huge Guadalupe County bucks - all North of Geronimo. One was a multi-pointed freak taken by a lady hunter with a bow by York Creek or Alligator Creek (just can't recall) and another was a 160 plus monster arrowed just east of there.

I got a picture of the nontypical also. Any idea if it is legit? A buddy sent me the pic, but i swore i had seen it before?

Can you look at this TWIMS site for all Texas Counties? I bet we took 4-5 times what they say we could on our 320 acres lol.... and we still have too many deer.

I have definitely seen the mast crop effect before there..
I don't think it is a mast crop event..
Honestly, I think the surveys are wrong and we have over harvested over the years..
It's been a decline the last few years..

Definitely legit. Taken somewhere out by the NB airport.

https://lma.tpwd.state.tx.us/
Scroll down and see Tag Estimator. Then click on "Estimate Tags" tab. Then follow the instructions.

Thanks, im gonna check it out.

Definitely a Hoss for the area or anywhere really then. Loosely know a few folks that have acreage around there and did the appraisals for the airport expansion a few years ago... never would have guessed something like that was walking around out there.

Ha, I mapped ours, it allots 1 doe tag and no buck tags for our 320 acres. We shot 10 deer, mostly does this year. We are LF and feed what i would think is a significant amount for our acreage, about 20K lbs or a little more protein and corn combined all year and our native browse is still hit very hard right now. We have been shooting 10-12 deer a year for a decade and haven't noticed a drop in the deer. None of the neighbors kill does.

interesting on the tag estimator
does it account for wide open fields vs thick woods?

Im not positive but pretty sure it does not. I mapped a bunch of random areas just curious. I did the metroplex and it treated it just like hunting country. I assume TPWD has survey information(bashed in another thread) for a Region or county and applies that to everything in that area. Pretty sure on other MLD plans you can get more site specific survey information. Im curious if anyone can correct me, im all ears.

Yes and No. If you put in the boundary of the property you are hunting, then it includes all the acreage in that boundary. So if you are 50% cover and 50% open then it estimates the tags for your property based off of the county numbers for that area. It is based off of population for a large area of that part of the county where the ranch is located at not your specific property....just the an area that property is located in. I think they use like habitat areas or acreages in an area to get closer numbers, but still not 100% accurate. There are going to be variances in habitat even in an area but most will be similar. There are two options in MLD...Harvest and Conservation. One option allows you to plug in your acreage and get the permits based off of the estimator....no sight evaluation or no surveys or no record keeping. You either like the tags estimated go into the program or don't, opting out. While the other option is more in depth and hands on by both parties...TPWD and LO. More detail management plan, harvest goals, date kept, etc.

We run into this same dynamic on the Pitchfork.......not enough buck or doe tags for the amount of deer we have.....

Pitch, I used the tag estimator just in arbitrary areas of the State out of curiosity and one I looked at was your general area. It was one I was surprised by. No doubt theres lots of challenges with making survey estimates over large areas without being site specific.

It happened to us they would tell us there were more deer than the year before but we all knew they were full of it.
The herd was decimated by over harvest.

Will you share with us what area? County?

Thanks
We are MLD 3, there used to be a breeding operation and that got shut down like 4-5 years ago..
It 6500 acres, low fence primarily but borders 123 and it's primarily open on that side of the ranch.. I don't see a lot of deer moving across that area
low fence on the back side but bordered by a road and a bif of high fence on one end.
some pretty big open areas that you just don't see deer that often out there.. so, it it certainly not 6500 acres for hunting and dense oak tree areas

How many acres and how many guns? What were the harvest recommendations? What was the deer density the habitat would carry? Did you do the survey's or did they?

Some tough sand (deep) but a pretty place.

I was on the south part of this ranch on pastures that sold off years ago. It was very sandy on the east side and more open. There was a ridge on the east side(of south pastures) that started in about the middle that was much better soils. It was very thick, rolling cover and really looked like good deer habitat. Lot of canopy and tall trees with very thick underbrush.

ok, so, you are familiar with it..
I would say 1/2 is deep thick stuff and 1/2 open
I think we are "supposed" to shoot like 150 deer a year, about 50/50 mix
We never do though..
I don't have the actual # of hunters, but my gut says it's too many and combined with a long season.. and that a section is long term lease to a business that brings guests out (we all know how that works out) I think it over hunted..

I also question the validity of the surveys.. you can't do a survey in the areas with the most deer and use that deer/acre data and spread it across the whole ranch.. I have no idea how they do it of course and I am not a wildlife biologist.

So I just did 1,000 acres in LaSalle County between Millet and Los Angeles in between Dilley and Cotulla.
If you select low fence it gives you 1 buck and 2 doe tags but when you change it to high-fence it gives you 4 bucks and 9 doe tags.

Then I did 1,000 acres just east of Llano and it gave me 9 bucks, 2 spikes, & 43 does for low fence and 22 bucks & 73 does for high fence.

Im pretty sure Texas has always been ahead of the game in game management. I think we started it and were staying in front. Does anyone know how unique the MLD program is as compared to other states? Do any states have anything close? I really dont know the answer but Im assuming its pretty unique and very progressive in an attempt to manage game/land/habitat. From what little I know about the tag estimator system and the survey methods behind it, it almost has to be a pretty flawed system. However Im grateful our State is trying and I do feel it does way more good than harm. Everyone just needs to do their due diligence before jumping in.

Im far from a wildlife biologist, but 150 deer a year off 6500 acres in what i know of guadalupe county doesnt sound crazy.

I remember when that place was ahead of the game and feeding black eyed peas to supplement the natural forage. Some real bombers would come out there from time to time.

there have been a few great deer taken..
pushing 180, but the last few years a few in the mid 140s, maybe one breaking 150

I think we had one break 140 this year

If you don't know how many deer you have on your patch of land then the only thing left is to use P&W s survey and then their recommendations. The accuracy of P&W survey is not very accurate...60% at best. The thing that P&W survey gives is how it correlates to years past..did numbers go up or down. I count my deer with 90% accuracy and better. ...but it cost me a lot of time and effort and there is the money it requires. I have 700 acres that I have counted many times ..in doing this I have learned a lot of facts about deer. The more Census I conduct the more accurate I get. You cannot tell how many deer you have accurately by conducting surveys...it takes a "CENSUS" to be accurate. The difference is a survey uses only a small part of the land to count deer then by math they calculate the amount of deer for the rest of the land....A CENSUS, you count every deer on the place to determine how many deer you have. This doesn't mean that P&W can't tell the direction the heard is heading. Even with using helicopters the accuracy in brush is only about 60% and less. If you can't tell a story with the data you have then any data you have is not as useful. Not only does it have to tell a story but the data has to correlate with other data. If you can't tell how many deer you have you can't manage the heard with knowledge that you're heading in the right direction and the speed in that direction. I feel the heard is very delicate ...by over harvesting we can devastate any managing process..by under harvesting the heard can get out of control quick. I am surprised that we can hold a heard fairly well sometimes. Most of us try to do the very best we can to manage our deer.
The drawback conducting a Census is the many hours put in each census I conduct and it has to be done every year to stay accurate. With all being said ...P&W does pretty good on some years considering all the land they have to count. I would not want to try to count the 1000's of acres that they have to do each year and try to be as accurate as they can be. My hat is off to the great biologist we have doing a great job and always willing to help in any way they can.

I’d like some more info on this deer census. Unless you a HF open field i would think it impossible.

Thanks redchevy for your input as I appreciate and respect it. Before I got involved in trying to manage our heard, your input reflects my opinion years ago.lol But I was surprised how many hunters think alike trying different ways to manage our deer and are somewhat successful. My process is, in short, accomplished with the help of trail cameras. I researched processes from different areas using different methods. Then I began to follow other folks procedures but over the years I have taken those procedures and improved them, with failures and some success. I will only say each hunter should get involved with their cameras to count deer...in time I believe it would be worth while.
Thanks again for your input.

We have found our most reliable heard estimating to be with Trail Camera/trail camera surveys also. Im sure there are much better cameras than the ones we have and probably would need many more of them than we have to derive your level of success/accuracy with them.

how do know you aren't counting the same deer twice?

The way we do it... and i say we loosely. My brother and dad have done most of it. We try to estimate a ratio of bucks to does, then you attempt to count how many different bucks you have and use the ratio to determine total deer numbers.

It is far from perfect or exact. Fishbait must place a lot more faith in his than we do, and maybe for good reason, im sure he is much more dedicated to the implementation of the survey than we are.

I started my surveys in 2002 getting all the information I could get by phone and traveling. Much reading, but most of my process I have developed myself... rest assured the accuracy didn't just happen but hard work built my methods. most of my equipment came to me by presents and I bought quite a few, even repaired a few here and there, and yes there is a lot of money tied up in equipment. To address the issue of counting the same deer more than once..yes, just part of the process but to be accurate it takes many process' tied up in one bundle. Developing software that can tie loose ends up. Developed many calculations to help interpret results. All data has to relate to something...so as you can see years can go by before coming up with a reliable process. "NONE " came easy..that's for sure..lol
Let me say ...any survey is only an educational guess ..still it is something ..better than nothing. Using only one camera years ago and moving it around on all sides of my lease and I was able to get a number for bucks and does....a far cry from where I am now.
that's it in a nut shell.lol
Good luck

Don't forget a survey is a calculated result and a "census" is a real number..

well, yeah, that is kind of my point. I don't think driving through a given high density area and spotlighting and using the same deer/acre ratio for the entire property.. I am NOT involved so I don't want to say they are doing it wrong. Just curious about all of this.

Im not trying to be rude, i always want to better our own information. What makes yours a "census" and not a survey? I assume your deer do not have social security numbers, or do they have tags in their ears?

Thanks redchevy glad ya have a question. A survey is driving through a given route and counting what you see ...then calculating numbers that you see and calculating numbers per acres on the route. Then calculating the numbers for the whole place or the whole route. So you see only a small part of an area then calculating from the small part to the whole route then calculating for all your acres ....yet not seeing but a small portion.
A "CENSUS" is capturing pictures that cover all the property and calculating ratios from exact number of bucks and number of total bucks for a number of does...however I go to more process' to end up with number of does. This is just so you can see the difference but is only a small part of what I do. A census separates from a survey simply that all deer are counted where on a survey only a small part is counted. That is why P&W ends up with numbers that cannot happen ..such as some ratios. But the survey serves it's purpose by comparing year after year.
The social security numbers comes later...

I can't wait until Biden implements deer registration

Goodness, thats a cool rack

Thanks for posting Hudbone

Great buck

Love the drop beams on this deer. Talk about a once in a lifetime deer!

What a buck...did ya have a heart attack when ya saw him? Thanks for the pic.

Just enough country there where either he was not seen or no one spoke about him. A hay farmer found a shed from the previous year. he told a farmer friend's wife who is an avid hunter. From what I understand, the huntress began the pursuit in bow season, but was not successful until two months in.

Yep that one is a stud.

Awesome buck and awesome story
Really glad she got him

That is a neat looking buck...he should be around 175 or so with all those points. Taken with archery equipment makes it even nicer.

here's the other one I referenced. Shot opening weekend and retrieved a lil' later. Probably not a mile from the other one and closer to The Grain Bin.

Wow

Hell of a buck

I know of a 148 inch clean 8 taken not far from that area in the last few years.

"Hell of a buck" - yeah, he got arrowed also.