Corn Futures

Not sure if y'all follow corn futures but they are going crazy this morning. $791 per long ton at the open and expected to top around in coming days at $825 per long ton. Up almost 3% just today. Looks like high feed prices are only going higher! Supply and demand.

If the ethanol lobby goes away and we stop throwing money away, that gets cut in half in about a week.

Damn speculators! Just kidding around, kind of...

7.85 a bushell which is 54lbs

It always jumps this time of year... supplies are getting low... it will start dropping in sept

Then I suggest you start campaigning for Pawlenty. He is the only one who has had the guts to tell the Iowa caucus that making fuel out of corn was a farse and would fall on it's face without your tax dollars. Everyone with half a brain can figure this out but the Iowa corn farmers are really making out on this debacle.

ADM,Monsanto and other "farmers"

Wrong last three years corn market has crashed at harvest time... so unless you can store your grain for cheap for an extended amount of time or took out a hell of a contract you operating expenses are on. 7.50 bushel and you bill is paid off $4-5 bushel corn. Most Indivial farmers including myself hate the ethonal due to speculation b/c of it.

Hey Bobo,
I will be the first to admit grain speculation/prices is above me. But are you saying you can sell for $7.50 a bushel but it costs you $4-$5 per bushel to produce leaving $2.50-$3.50 (on average) profit per bushel? To someone who is not a farmer and has no idea how many bushel's an acre is this bad? Or do I have it all wrong?
Thanks

I think what Bobo is saying, and I have seen my farmers in Waco deal with the same situation the last few years,is that right now the price is showing $7.50 a bushel. The people getting his money for fertilizer, seed, fuel, machinery prices, etc are basing their selling prices as if he will get the $7.50 a bushel. When it actually comes time to harvest, the prices in recent history have dropped to $4.50 - $5.00, so the farmer does't make that $7.50 per bushel. The only way around this is if you put a contract out with the grainery, but then if you don't make the contracted bushels, you are at the mercy of your neighbors to buy their corn to fill out your contract. So all the inputs they have in their corn or grains are based off of them being able to sell it for $7.50, but when it comes down to it, they rarely get it and often sell it for 25-35% less. Farmers take on a lot of risk every year.

Hopefully for the farmers sake, the commodoties prices will stay high. The corn crop in central Texas is looking pretty crappy. Luckily the wheat crop was decent.

No saying your planting...seed, fertilizer, fuel
...ect when its 7.50...and when you harvest its 4-5.

Basically costs when growing are real high, then price drops at harvest when its time to make your money . so your expenses are real high so your profit margins take a big hit.

338 ultra nailed it.

The original farm subs made farming like a big mural fund or really high dollar stock.. prices where more stable up or down 1-3% so everyone was happy and safe .. helped protect producers and consumers.

Now with ethonal, stupid over dramatic media, and speculators/ daytraders..ect
Its more like a highly volatile penny stock and getting worse every year

Ok, I got it. So if selling prices are 20% less(than $7.50) and you get high $6's you end up having to eat the inflated production costs but can't pass costs on.

Thanks for the explanation!

Ya that's pretty close.

Now toss in unpredictable mother nature...and a bad year can turn into a bankrupting year..if it she causes your expenses to run unusually high

I am not a farmer in any way but if growing corn is such a risky venture, why not plant other crops with considerable less risk and speculation involved?

Wheat, milo, soy beans are the same way.

most farmers are like us..very diverse on crops..wheat in the winter, corn in the summer and dry land both wheat and milo. Also have some alfalfa..

Look at the market trends on cotton and wheat...same issues as corn...

I feel for the farmers, they ain't getting rich off ethanol or any other crop. My dad has had farms in Illinois all his life, still does. Farming is a lifestyle and a somewhat risky one as well. So many variables, mainly weather, but many more also come in to play.

When the economy goes South as it has over the last few years and investors get out of traditional stocks and bonds they enter the commodities market and become the dreaded "speculator". Add ethanol into the mix and speculation swings wildly both ways. Normally speculation is a good thing, it evens out the markets. But with this current administration folks that really have no business betting on commodities enter the market and things go tipsy turvy because Obummer and the Fed have screwed things up so royally.

Only time will tell..... About to be alot of stuff coming out of crp. Will be interesting to see what happens.... I fear for the return of the dust bowl....but also see a huge down ward spiral coming... Sooner or later the market it going to get flooded and the prices are going to hit an all time low....I see it happening in the next 8 years...imo

Dust bowl days I think unlikely, tillage practices have changed and improved so much (even though this drought is reminiscent of those days). More fearful of prices dropping thru the bottom as you say. However, there are those that are seeing farming as an alternative to today's Wall Street execs in the next 20-30 years. It will take some years of prosperity and the children of farmers to see that it just may be very profitable to stay on the family farm rather than move to the "big city". In the end people have to eat after all.

Just worried about what happens when that price does tank......farms go under. Yes farming practices are better but still all it takes is a very nasty drought and much of that land goes to blowing.

Yes sir! Of that there is no doubt.