Social Security will run out in 10 years

Just in time for "The Great Reset".

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/soci...estimates-154525572.html?.tsrc=fin-notif

Social Security's reserves are projected to run out in 2033, according to a new report, at which point the entitlement program's trust fund will be able to pay out just 77% of benefits.

Been hearing this same chit since I was in school back in 83.

40 years later and still hearing this same old stuff.....

They will just print more paper!

Sounds like another scare tactic for the upcoming election.

Thank God we still have the Ozone

Just another way to filter money out of hardworking Americans.

just in time

That's correct and Congress made changes in the '80s to forestall the decline but now we're at the point where we have to make some other changes.

This is the year the last of the Baby Boomers are hitting retirement age and finances in the US are going to get weird because of it. Not only are the people at the absolute top of their earnings game right now they also have saved more money than they will ever have at any other point in their life. That money is going to get pulled out of the stock market because they cannot risk losing money because they have to live on it. They're also going to quit their jobs and the government will not be getting the income tax revenue from them. Those jobs will be filled with people doing the same work but less time on the job and they will be paid significantly less. Also by nature in retirement you quit spending as much money as you were in your earning years and that's going to change every business in the entire country.

Contrary to popular belief the money you pay into Social Security does not belong to you. It is simply an income tax that gets deposited into the general fund. There is no requirement in the law that benefits be paid out to beneficiaries and there are dozens of examples of the government deciding they don't like someone and refusing to pay benefits. That started in the 1950s where they denied a man who was an active communist and when he took the Social Security Administration to Court they simply deported the man to the country he had immigrated to the US from despite him being a naturalized citizen and never being charged with a crime.

The Social Security trust fund filing is a cabinet in an office that is full of US Treasury bonds. That's not even an exaggeration, that's really how it's done. There is also no account with money in it and your name on it in the entire social security system.

Exactly. Same song, 40th verse.

The 'ran out' of money decades ago and have been stealing from us the people ever since.

Stole it blind.
Now they want your 401k and IRAs. (and they are getting those through inflation)

George Carlin called it.

The sky is falling, sell everything and head for the hills!!

If you live on SS, don't fret...it will never run out of money.
If you are still working and paying taxes, be very worried.....you're gonna fund the shortfall...tax rates will have to increase...

Yep have they ran out of welfare or food stamps yet?

That's about it in a nutshell. SS benefits and eligibility age may change but it's funded annually and will keep on paying out.

Never going to happen. But just in case, I`m glad I didn`t wait till 70 to draw my social security. Started mine 2 years ago when I retired at 62 and never looked back. Better get it while you can before they give it away to anyone that will vote democrat now or in the future.

Glad I don’t pay into it anymore

Every single scrap of information about what Social Security really is is available online. I would start with the various Supreme Court challenges to it early in the life of the program and go from there. I would also take a good gander at the reforms that were done in the 80s and also look at when Clinton doubled the tax rate. Without some kind of change in the next few years what is being predicted about social security having a shortfall will come true and it will probably happen about 2 years sooner than they believe. All of the covid deaths extended the life of the program as it is currently structured.

Won't be long and they will have the working mans 401 k and IRAs through ESG investing.

This is my thinking exactly!!

I concur. If you are in good health and file at 62 you will regret it if you live a long time IMO/E….

Never paid into it to any extent and never planned on ever getting it.

Well opinions are like, well, you know. Fortunately some of us made better decisions in life I suppose, and not dependent only on SS. They've raised age requirements in the past, and I'm confident they will do so again.

X2

I wish I had this option.

I agree with you - I have friends who started taking their SS the very first chance they could get it because "it will be going away" - silliness.

I delayed mine until age 70 (which I turn next month) to take advantage of a guaranteed 8% increase each year - did not need the income and am in good health so I decided to delay it for the extra return - not for everybody but a smart choice for some folks

I’m 80 and wife is 68. We are both drawing and counting on it.

At one time, it was called the Social Security Trust Fund and it, the money, was separately handled. Not like governments other obligations. Then ‘they’ looted’ it and made it a general obligation of the government.,

That 8% increase isn`t guaranteed if you die before 70 either. I wonder how many people who waited till 70 never lived that long and spent their life saving instead. Even if one reaches 70 it will be several years before you know if the decision to wait pays off. Healthy people die every day.

By law every cent collected in the name of Social Security has to be deposit into the general fund and it cannot be earmarked for any specific purpose. This was from the Supreme Court ruling in the 30s that upheld the Social Security Act. Nothing has changed. By law the money that is in the so-called Social Security trust fund is treasury bills. Not a single Cent has been taken if you look at it from that perspective and it generates a hundred million dollars per year in interest that is accrued on those bonds. The actual Social Security trust fund is a filing cabinet in an office in Maryland or virginia, I forget which. And that filing cabinet has t-bills in it that have face values of billions of dollars.

Despite the progressives wishing it to be so the federal government is not omnipotent and does not have unlimited powers. Congress does not have the authority to establish a mandated participation nationalized pension system. Social Security was set up utilizing congress's taxation Authority and it is simply an income tax. If you don't believe me simply look up the case called Helvering v Davis. The following is the holding which is the order given by the Supreme Court in that case.

The proceeds of both the employee and employer taxes are to be paid into the Treasury like any other internal revenue generally, and are not earmarked in any way. The Social Security Act of 1935 does not contravene the Tenth Amendment, as Congress is permitted to spend for the general welfare.

Yep, and the main issue is that Congress does not want SS cashing in T-Bills. That is effectvely paying off debt

IIRC, it takes about 8 years to catch up. And that doesn't include any gains that could be made in that time like saving interest on debt reduction or investment gains.

Isn’t it strange how social security is always projected to run out of money but welfare never will? Working people paid into social security under penalty of law but the lazy f$&#s get it for nothing.

^^^ He’s right ya know…

As I said ........ if you are in good health and do not need the money for income to live off of then waiting can be a good decision -on the other hand if you NEED the income to live on and are not in good health then take it early - it is an individual choice - the break point is around age 81 - life expectancy has increased dramatically over the past years so for me? - we did not need the income to live off of and our family history is strong so I am betting wife or I will live way beyond 81 - if EITHER of us live past 81 then we continue to be paid more for the rest of our lives - so again ..... it is an individual decision for each person - and guess what?? If my bet on life expectancy is wrong and wife and I both die then what do we care? We are dead! -

If anyone is relying on SS then you get what you get. It was never designed to subsidize for lack of fiscal responsibility. For the first half century most Americans were far less prone to spending money caused by the need of instant gratification. A couple other aspects why SS was never supposed to be a subsidy. Pensions existed far more than now. People lived within their means. Just look at consumer debt today proportionally to 80 years ago. Lastly, saving money was a thing.

The hard truth is financial ignorance coupled with lack of financial discipline is what keeps most at the mercy of Uncle Sam. It’s not your job or familial wealth or lack of. Why we don’t teach our children about finance starting in middle school is beyond me. A generalized Case and point Asian immigrants. Many that came here within (1) generation went from mostly poor with a small percentage being low middle class to a large portion being top 5% or better earners, but that’s even changing to some degree. I’m half Asian so my facts are somewhere between purely anecdotal and hard numbers lol.

Scared money don’t make money. And if one truly commits to understanding money and markets not just domestically but globally. They’ll make money when everyone’s 401’s have been wiped out.

Fun fact; 1971 was a game changer with the USD moving to fiat currency. Google that dynamic.

When I retired at 62, I called a SS office (the one in Corsicana) and spoke to a fellow there. My question was whether I should start taking the money now or should I wait. He asked a few questions, had some data on me, and he pounded his calculator for a bit. Then he said that based on their data, I should take the money now because if I waited past 65 (or maybe it was 66), I’d never catch up at the higher monthly rate the money I’d have gotten by starting earlier. Part of the calculation was how long his data expected me to live. I took the money at 62.

A lot depends on how long you will live, and unfortunately that may not match up with how long you PLAN to live. As they say “man plans, God laughs”.

It all hinges on the individuals portfolio and the time value of money relationship to that individuals portfolio.

Especially those that took the jab.

I didn’t take it. Healthy, with O+ blood and ivermectin.

MY MAN!

Social Security is supposed to be self funding. Welfare on the other hand takes from producers and gives to people that aren't productive. From the government and Progressives standpoint producers will never run out of money because they only need just a little bit more than they're taking now. I guess they never heard of The Golden Goose.

Social Security will never run out. They will just print the money out of thin and pay it which steals purchasing power from everyone through inflation,

You will get it, it will just be worth less. They are stealing your 401k and your wealth through inflation which is just a hidden tax.

When your monetary system is dishonest, you are in a rigged game.

A dollar defined by the 1792 Coinage act is 372.5 grams pure silver. We don’t use dollars, we use Federal Reserve Notes which are just paper and a total con game. All fiat dollars throughout history return to their true value which is zero.

We are in the end game of the Federal Reserve Note. It’s almost at zero so expect inflation to get much worse.

And the older generations wonder why the younger generations lack motivation…should probably look at what they are leaving behind, but I know that requires reflection and accepting responsibility which is asking a lot.

Every monetary system in the history of mankind that was based on metal collapsed on its own if left alone to run its course.

Modern economics are completely dependent on inflation. Without fiat currency the capital markets dry up and almost no one would ever be able to get a loan for a car or a house. Interest you pay on a loan is in the long run inflation. Personally that doesn't affect me because I've never taken out a loan for anything in my life including houses or cars. I'm in my fifties and I've never borrowed a cent from anyone for anything.

How late is to late?

It can, and will run out! Fend for yourself.

I agree. I took the Ivermectin and never came down with the Covid either. I have acquired a taste for alfalfa hay though and grew a mane.

Actually son, the younger generation lacks motivation because you’ve had it too easy in life and have had things in life just handed to you

Are you looking for reparations?

Metal based monetary system collapsed due to dilution of metal content by clipping coins in Roman times to make more coins. Changing the content of metal in the coins or creating a fractional reserve system that allows you to loan more paper against the metal its backing.

All fiat money collapses in less than 75 years throughout modern history.

Social Security is an insurance program, not a bank account. There isn't anything "to run out". It is no different than looking at the cash resources at The Hartford for home insurance and then looking at the claims and saying "In 10 years The Hartford will be out of money." That's not how insurance works, the group pays premiums for the claims submitted. It is why insurance rates go up.
What is at issue is the Baby Boomer retirement. They are a disproportionate segment of society. When they retire there will be/are so many of them that those working for a living will have to pay a huge amount to cover the social security payments to the Boomers.
Many years ago this was deemed unfair and a plan was set up to address the problem. A special Trust Fund was set up to handle ONLY THE BABY BOOMERS. The idea was the BOOMERS, while still working, would fund this Trust Account THEMSELVES and then it would be used to partially subsidize the BOOMERS future social security payments.. It was figured that most of the BOOMERS will have died by 2035 and the TRUST FUND was designed to evaporate by 2035, it was never intended to last longer than that.
SO....if what I said is true, why is there a problem?
The whole problem was how the money in the TRUST FUND was invested. If it had been put into Bank Certificates of Deposit, etc. THERE WOULD NEVER HAVE BEEN a problem. Just withdraw the CD funds and all is well. BUT what they did was "invest" the funds in a newly created-special H Treasury Bond series designed for nothing else than this TRUST FUND. No one else can buy this class of Treasury securities.
So $1.00 in social security/FICA taxes is collected for the TRUST FUND. On the books $1.00 is added to this fund. At the same time this fund "invests" in these H bonds so the $1.00 is no longer cash in some bank, it is a piece of paper (H Bond) of the Treasury. The $1.00 goes to the Federal Government that exchanged one of these H Bonds for the cash. Now the Federal government has the money to spend on welfare, foreign aid and other social programs. VOILA!!! Financial genius, the government collects $1.00 in taxes and essentially gets $2.00 in spending. $1.00 in the TRUST FUND and $1.00 for social programs.
Back during the Clinton Administration we all heard how he "balanced the budget". He gave speeches about using the "Excess" to "pay down" the National Debt. "The State of the Economy has never been better", Blah Blah. Well if during that time you looked at the National Debt, it kept going up. How was this possible? What happened was some creative accounting. Part of the National Debt are these H Bonds, funds received from the social security administration that would one day have to be paid back. It was deemed that the amount was "So Huge" that it would be impossible to ever be paid back so they would JUST FORGET IT, they wouldn't pay it back. NOW the H BONDS were no longer an element of the annual budget as it was an obligation that wouldn't be repaid but since these H Bonds were on the books in order to get cash from the social security administration, they kept pushing up the national debt....t so VOILA AGAIN, you just balanced the budget.
In any event the H Bonds -that money could very easily be repaid to the Social Security Administration and the amount transferred to regular T bonds and notes, no problem. They wouldn't have to increase taxes, etc. The young people wouldn't have to pay more FICA taxes, just exchange H Bonds for Regular Bonds. THEY just don't want to do it and they figure most folks don't really understand what they are doing so they'll just forget the obligations these H Bonds created. As I said, if the TRUST money had been put into banks there wouldn't be a problem. And, the idea of the TRUST FUND "going broke in 2035, that is exactly what it was supposed to do, it was only to cover a payment differential for the baby boomers.
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Oddly enough bread cost the exact same through the entire history of the Roman Empire and there was never inflation. They had to by necessity create stealth inflation and debased their currency because there simply wasn't enough metal to go around and they would have experienced deflation. I don't like fiat currency but the system works as long as you don't have people trying to manipulate things and our system has manipulators from top to bottom.

You appear fairly versed in the subject at hand and intelligent. So, why never use cheap capital? That’s essentially a page of the independently wealthy individuals playbook. From a personal pride standpoint I totally get it, but from a finance and economic perspective it makes no sense to me. I’m wondering if there is something I’m just missing?

^^^^ I have no tolerance whatsoever for BS and will not sit still and go through the scrutiny of the paperwork to get a loan. My business is also very cash heavy and I make a lot of money and spend way less than I make so I've never really needed credit although I do have it and for whatever reason I have a very strong aversion to debt and I can't explain why. Just don't like hanging something over my head I guess.

I took mine at 62 also. I figured it would be better to be already receiving benefits if/when the Dems jack with it (grandfathered). Also, I worked 47 years and they’ve been taking it out every since so it’s my time to start using “my” money before I die.

It’s amazing how many business owners(most of which are of older age) feel the same way you do, yet had no problem taking on substantial PPP “LOANS” which were “forgiven”. 500 billion was it? Surely you’re not one of those people though. I only regret not investing in luxury boat brands during that time.

Keep kicking the can along…

What’s that? Bailing out the banks?

Keep kicking the can along…

The globalization game certainly couldn’t have any repercussions…

Keep kicking the can along…

$31.46 trillion in debt, all brought to you by policies derived from the older generation.

Keep kicking the can along…

I hear talk of the 40yr mortgage, and “bailouts/handouts” for current mortgage owners for sake of reducing the effects of a saturated market due to fear of foreclosure. We certainly wouldn’t want lower home prices AND low interest. We must intervene! The young will rent and like it!

Keep kicking the can along…

College tuition 1180%+ higher than in 1978, wonder who’s posed to profit from that? The higher we raise tuition, the more the government will pay. Nothing to see here.

Keep kicking the can along…

Ad nauseam


No, the American dream is dead because the people in charge of policy the last 20-30yrs throat forked the Statue of Liberty for all she’s worth, didn’t even offer her a rag, and now it’s time for the chickens to roost. There’s a colorful illustration.

You’d probably be shocked to know I’m a millennial who’s actually done fairly well on his own with no debt, certainly better than most. But I’m not overlooking the issues. I certainly have no issue returning the categorizations that have always been lumped of my generation. It was “learned” to me.

lots of jibberish in your post - and NO I am not shocked to know you are a mellinnial -- your generation has no clue the price that the Great generation and others paid to provide you what you are enjoying today - number one was those who gave their lives in WWI and WWII and Vietnam to defend this beautiful country you are priviledged to get to be a part of.

I lost many of my friends who gave their lives so you can be here in a free country today - My Grandfather and Father served in the military defending this country - the reason you "actually have done fairly well on my own" is due to those who came before you who honored this country and paid the price for your freedom for you to do "fairly well" - YOU did not do well on your own - you were blessed to have a country that allowed you to succeed -

Son, do not ever second guess what those before you have done for you to be here today - YOU ARE LIVING THE AMERICAN DREAM even though you do not realize or appreciate it - you need to count your blessings that you were born in this great country - your post makes me want to throw up

Yeah, we are your problem. That's it. We contributed to society and many more profited off our endeavors. You rest on the shoulders of giants who preceded you and then you gritch.

My firm grosses in excess of 10 something and we didnt take no ppp loan. Banker called me to streamline the process and he was told no thank you.

Your opportunities to succeed are far greater than ours as your generation doesn't want to work nor do what they should. Making excuses by blaming your elders (63 here) is an ill minded losers limp.

Don't get too big for your britches.

Tlk and Hudbone got it going on!!!

I’m extremely aware of the price many paid long ago, my examples above explicitly mention the issues presented in the last 30yrs…not 45,60,75,100yrs. I’m also keenly aware of my situation and position, it still doesn’t change the situation we are in and the direction headed. Yet, my rights and freedoms were granted to my by God, and nobody else. Protected by those who served and chipped away at by those who make policy.

I see my use of group identity instead of individuality rubbed you wrong. Interesting…

Whataboogereatr, what is your point?

Where did you get this information? The main part of the Roman empire in general lasted about 500 years with another 250ish years on both ends at various levels. There was definitely inflation and sometimes hyperinflation. There was also monetary debasement which you correctly touched on. Inflation and debasement wreaked havoc on the empire.

"Oddly enough bread cost the exact same through the entire history of the Roman Empire and there was never inflation."

I'm wondering where did you obtain the data for this statement?

Soon, in four years I'll be living the retired dream and appreciate your support. Will start drawing at 62 just for funzies.

If SS is gone by then we are still ok but it won't be gone by then.

Hope you bought gold 3yrs ago. Lord help you if you are expecting your 401k to be there, or a USD that’s worth more than paper to wipe your butt with. That SS check ain’t much. If it doesn’t go as planned, definitely blame a millennial.

At this point, I look at gold as something nice to pass down. As full time RVers we don't have any assets to speak of anymore. Stuff has already been given to the kids if they wanted it or otherwise sold, or given away to strangers. Physical gold in a bank lockbox is just a hedge for us. We hopefully will die broke. If we dip into the gold then so be it.

Goes against what I’ve learned too. Hell, there’s literature talking about the price of wheat jumping 10,000X in a 50yr period. Not sure how you make bread without wheat.

You're post tells me you're pretty low on the food chain of international business and finance experience. You're ignorant and just don't know it but that's OK. It your world, within your scope of knowledge, I can understand how your might perceive things in such a way.

Let’s hear it then hoss, always looking to learn. Would like your thoughts on the current BRICS situation?

You have to learn it by doing and listening. Thankfully I had good mentors. There's no post or information source that's going to summarize it all. I wish there was because I'm getting out in four years. International business experience and routine travel has been with 57 countries so far. Have managed 6 countries' in my career. Now just 2, the USA and Australia.

The current BRICS situation? From a global business perspective, dumping the dollar is meaningless because from an international business perspective, transactions for goods still occur in local currencies and associated conversions. Makes for sensational headlines though.

I have more concern for these loans China is rolling over, and their accelerated dump of US bonds. But not being an international financial wiz I don’t know where it ends up.

Oh, Social Security will still be here, and it'll still be paying benefits. But here's what I think is going to happen:

1) Retirement ages will increase. 'Early' retirement at 62 will probably get phased up to 64-65. 'Full' retirement age will slowly advance to age 70. 'Maximum' retirement age will probably go up from 70 to 75 or thereabouts.

2) Full retirement age SSA benefits will start getting means-tested similarly to early retirement benefits. So if you continue working in your retirement years, your benefits will probably be reduced by some percentage of earnings.

3) SSA benefits will become subject to asset limitations. If you scrimped and saved during your working years so that you would have something to live in your old age, your SSA benefits will probably be reduced by some percentage of your assets which are available for your support.

4) SSA wage caps will soar. Currently the first $147,000 or so of wages are subject to SSA tax. That'll at least double, if not more, in the next 5-10 years.

The rationale will be along the lines that having retirement savings and assets means you're 'privileged' and 'fortunate', and so are not entitled to the same level of SSA support that the 'more needy and deserving' people who didn't save & plan ahead need.

Now I could be dead wrong. My crystal ball works as well as everyone else's. But the above is consistent with the trends in SSA law for the last 40+ years.

My (and others) 401k has been there for 40 years and will be there throughout my retirement - what a silly statement for you to make

Well, especially when considering a lot of what I’ve posted is facetious.

When I was in HS over 30 years ago, this is what I was told...
The oceans are going to rise in 10 years.
We'll have flying cars in 10 years.
We will run out of oil in 10 years.
Car engines will be made out of ceramic and mechanics will be wearing lab coats instead of greasy coveralls in 10 years.

I tend not believe anybody that tells me "in 10 years, such and such is going to happen"

Same here, I started at 62, worked and paid in for 46 years. I built an Excel spreadsheet and I will probably live long enough to get to the cross over mark. Also, by not having to draw off of my 401K, it has grown way faster than the increase in S/S and since my wife can't draw on my S/S it leaves more money in the 401K for her to live off of if I die first.

I grew up thinking I would never get a dime of SS. Because of that, we always saved for retirement with that in mind. Now I`m 2 years into retirement @ 64 and no plans to use my 401K $$ or other investments anytime soon. A good friend just retired @ 65 and his longtime CPA advised him not to wait to start his SS. He said you never know when they might make changes and if you are already on it, you would be grandfathered in.

Guys - please just think for a moment. If SS was EVER to go bankrupt and be unable to meet their obligations to millions of Americans who rely on SS to live on do you really think this country could go forward? Give me a break - SS will NOT GO AWAY - meanwhile many of you are losing money because you are fearful - once again ........ if you need the income now or are not healthy or have a family history of living not living a long life then take it NOW - on the other hand if you do not need the income now and are in decent health then delay taking it -

I see where over 14 years of being a member here you have posted a total of 26 times - all of us request that you wait another 14 years before your 27th post - nothing but a troll - go away please

I'm convinced that they will continue to push the age back, and even restrict amount certain people get. It will collapse because No body is having kids.

Nobody that pays taxes anyhow…

My SS will be reduced by around 75% by WEP or the Windfall Elimination Provision. So SS is not a factor in my retirement. I have not done the math, but on that consideration of not needing it and not being enough to really matter. I wonder if rather than waiting until the max age to draw one could start drawing it early, but dca the SS into an investment vehicle to ride until that max age or age of choice. Then one could at some future age not only continue to draw the SS each month, but also combine the SS payment with a monthly withdrawal from the investment. Would this be a greater monthly sum instead of waiting until the same age to start drawing SS. Don't know and I'm sure it would depend on the return on the investment, so there would be a level of risk to choose. Yes, I'm over thinking it. It will probably go towards a boat payment instead.

I think it is more about how you have allocated and how the tax implications affect that.

If you intend to keep earning money - wages or self-employment - over approx $21k per year during the 'early' retirement years, probably shouldn't do it. Your early SSA benefits get reduced by 50% of every dollar earned over that $21k. May as well wait until at least 'full' retirement age and take your WEP-adjusted benefit which won't be offset by earnings.