All Financial Advisors here.....whats up?

I'm frustrated. Would the real financial advisors on here say what they think the market is going to do. My lady says I'm in such low risk tolerance, I should just move everything to the bank. But, like most, in the last year, I've lost almost $40,000. I am the first to admit, I know nothing about the markets. I ask her if I'm in such a low risk, what have I lost anything. Morgan Stanley is frustrated with me because, as yall know, I scream at the first sign of loss. They want to get rid of me.

Should I just move everything to the bank or wait it out.

I'm 70, pretty broke down buy my organs are still fairly good.

If we knew when we were going to croak would make it easier, but if we could know this, we could pick the Mega Million numbers

So, professional advisors who handle OTHER people's money, what would you tell someone like me?

Following

Move it all into crypto, don’t be a P

Ferraris or Food Stamps

Lost $40K or just down $40K in value?

Me too!

Sell a kidney maybe?

1st stop yelling at Morgan Stanley, you voted for this crap because of mean tweets and an old nag owning you.

My philosophy is... at 70ish, riding the stock market 'waves' ain't an option. There are no redo's at this age. Not a financial advisor, but strong gut feeling that interest rates are going to continue to rise (not the 1980's rise), but none the less, keep rising. Slow and steady growth is my philosophy. Investment firms just want to use your money, that's how they get their money. My observation is, they don't care if your 'value' is down $100k. It's not their money!

That’s all?

You haven't lost anything if you don't touch it. At this point, since you didn't move earlier, you might as well stay put. It'll go back up...someday.

I was just wondering where all the "experts" (not real financial planners) were on here. Used to be tons of posts about somebody "killin' it" and how simple it is to time the market. 'Been reeeaal quiet lately.

At 70, retired and your personality...you need to not have anything in the market. Day traders with your personality back in the 90's were jumping off buildings...I'm being funny but serious in a bit. You're crying about 40k...someone that is genetically made for this stuff would've said I've lost X% (ain't no way that is double digits in your mountain of wealth).

It's October...put 10k in a series I bond now and in January put another 10k in. The rest leave in things that either pay you a dividend or tiny interest percent...these are the areas you should be focusing, not paying any attention to the actual market but instead make sure you have small recurring income.

I am shocked you lasted this long with any Financial Advisor...you expect personalized service but you don't want to pay for it, plus...you don't have enough to warrant that sort of attention. Sorry, someone needed to break it to you.

Also, FWIW - ducknbass isn't wrong either.

Buzz, does your advisor have you keep 12 months of living expenses in cash ? If not, fire them. You should not have to be selling in this market.

Have you lost more than 10% this year? If so, fire them. You should be protected against market drops like we have experienced.


Does your retirement account provide more than 1/3-1/4 of your living expenses?

Savings accounts right now are paying over 2% and CD's are over 3%.

Judd, said it well.

FWIW, I wish I was only down $40k. I'd say you are doing well....

Along the same lines. Wells Farrgo and the local banks around here are paying squat for interest on savings and CD's. When are they going to be going up? As long as us fools keep it there?

DITTO...

I moved 80% of my TSP (govt 401K) into the G-Fund in Dec just before I retired. Just moved the rest in July after a bit of a panic. Took a small bath in doing that, but not looking so bad today. I keep seeing the DOW hitting 25K. I'll get back in at 25K or just before the 2024 election. But what do I know?

good info from a few of you.

Capital One online is paying 2.15% for savings.

No problem

Yep, just paper losses. I am down from my high but still up from original purchases. September is almost always the worse month for stocks. I locked in some gains in August. In hindsight I should have held onto to DVN but with how fast it was dropping I wanted to take the 100% gain I had. It was in an IRA account so no tax consequence for quite a while. Since I invest on my own I read a lot. The bottom line is noone really knows where the market is headed. You can read opinions every day that forecast both directions.

experts on here would say:
VOTE REP.

Some say i'm the village idiot.

Never had that kinda money ta invest.

gas prices keep going up, oil well, just my


Best wish's Buzzsaw.

You don't lose until you sell. Even if you are in retirement you aren't cashing it all out at once. When the market is down take out as little as you can and just what you need to survive, required distributions, etc.

No one knows what the market will do. If they did they would be the richest person on the planet. All we know is the history. Over the past 80 years or whatever the general trend has been up up up. The logical conclusion is if you ride out the waves over time you will be ahead. I get that you are 70 and you wonder if you will be around long enough to ride out the waves. My Dad died at 69 and my Mom at 76 so I get the concern. You could drop dead tomorrow or you could live to be 100. I would plan like if you are going to live to be 100 because I would much rather die early with a bunch of money left over that I can leave to my heirs or whatever than plan on living to 80 and live to 100 and spend my last 20 years eating cat food.

Inflation is very real. Most are familiar with it now because it is very high and in the news but even before that the cost of things always goes up. Sometimes slow sometimes fast but it always goes up. If you invest in really conservative things like savings accounts, CD's, government bonds, etc you are GUARANTEED to lose money because it is very rare that these things pay more than the inflation rate. You may have more dollars, but you can buy less with than you could when you made the investment. For example lets say a year ago you could fill up your pickup for $50. If you put $50 in a saving account a year ago it might be worth $52 today. You made money but will that $52 fill up your pickup now? This happens across the board with everything - food, utilities, vehicles, clothing, you name it. If your investments are not earning more than the true inflation rate you are losing buying power and going into a worse position over time.

It is important to have savings and emergency funds that are in safe accounts that likely pay low interest but you don't want to over do it. 12 months of expenses is a good goal. Beyond that you need to do something with your money that will keep up with inflation.

If stocks make you uneasy have you though about real estate? Real estate keeps up with inflation for the most part. Rents and home values go up with time.

If you have some money just sitting,,, here is what I do. --------- on these trades ( 200 shares of dvn) I will make $1260 /$13,100 = 9.6% in 6 weeks.

I can’t imagine playing around in the market during retirement.

How are 50,000 dollar bets figured into that?

Local brick and mortar don't usually compete well. Online banks, such as Discover bank, and others, now offering 3% on 12 month w/3mo early withdrawal on less than 12mo. Discover bank is FDIC insured. Fed's dot plot seems to lean towards interest rates peaking at end of next year, maybe 5%. Interest rates have been at pretty much -0- all thru the plandemic, and inflation is strong, so interest rates hopefully will continue to rise.

sewer rat
talk turkey

great wisdom gents

Pull out some cash and we can make a run to pick up some yayo and laugh at the market

[u][/u]

CIT paying 2.70%. They go up every time Fed rate goes up.

https://www.cnet.com/personal-finan...-a-9-62-rate-on-i-bonds-how-to-buy-them/

Where?....I could only find 2.2%.

https://online.citi.com/US/ag/current-interest-rates/savings-accounts

https://online.citi.com/US/ag/banking/citi-accelerate-savings

Cap 1 increases the rate every month too...most banks it is only an introductory rate for new customers.

thread title should read . . . what's going down?

My 401k is self directed. I have no financial advisor, but I've always followed the advice of Ken Moraif with Retirement Planners of America. In 2008 when he said sell it all, I did. I didn't get back into the market until he gave the buy signal in June 2009. Same this year. He gave the sell signal in February (or early March) and I did. He sends out a free weekly Market Alert if you sign up. His current prediction is the DOW will drop to 25,000. If you ride it out, it could take 5 or more years to recoup your losses. Last Friday's Market Alert mentions your predicament about selling or not.

Ken Moraif

Down 40k















































You ain't seen nothing, you should see my weed stock portfolio.

[quote=talkturkey] . . . . . Not a financial advisor, but strong gut feeling that interest rates are going to continue to rise (not the 1980's rise), but none the less, keep rising.

I am not as positive as you.

I think that is very likely....S&P to 3000 as well. As bad as it has been, I seriously doubt we have seen the worst....Rates haven't been high but for a couple months.

You're welcome....anytime bud. Don't thank me until after you get my first invoice though.

You want free advice on what professionals charge for?

Why?

Trillions have to be paid back. It's really that simple. Some how, some way.

Bought first home in 1987, a $45,900 VA foreclosure with a 10 1/2% interest rate. Bought 2nd home in late 1996 at a dip in the interest rate and secured 7 3/8%. Nine years to drop 3 points. Yes, it was a decline of about 30%, but to a level which many on here have never seen, ever experienced or even considered.

I agree. I don't believe interest will ever see the 1980's again (even though, where I am sitting, I would chit... happy chits tho). I do believe, or hoping, it will hit close to 5ish by the end of next year before leveling off. We did however, live through the '80s. Even if the conservatives get back into office, they don't have a magic wand to fix inflation over night.

No one cares about your money more than you. That's why you should manage your own money how you see fit for your situation. The only people who need money managers and financial advisors are people with more money than they can ever spend.

Always cracks me when I see/hear young guys making $60-80k a year talk about their "financial advisors".

That doesn't even make sense.

If your talking about me. Yes I sold I much of my portfolio late Dec, early Jan. Mostly big tech that I bought early in the covid crash. Jan 3rd Market was at a high, quanative easing and rate raises to come soon. Then sold all my international the moment russia invaded. Did not take much research to see Europe was going to be F'd over energy. Been nibbling back in with broad index, utilities, Healthcare, and dividend aristocrat etfs ever since. Mostly every 2% to 5% drop from my last limit order fill. So I did heavy buying around June and last week. Started adding partial positions in some broad index cefs last week too that were below nav, all time low, and history of not fuly cutting div. Will continue my plan until I run out of cash. Still a long ways to go so will buy on the way up too if I have too like I did with the last of my cash at the start of the covid crash recovery. Not killing it, but I'm doing OK. I'm down no more than 15% on anything, but my dca on the dips prevents it from falling below that. Most of my etfs are down less than 10%. Covid and events it created was a black swan. This is different than timing the market. At the first of the year, did you really think all that covid money, recession, and guaranteed fed actions would help the market? If we drop much more by Jan, I will probably use the opportunity to start doing some rollovers to a Roth.

CIT Bank not Citi

https://www.cit.com/cit-bank/bank/savings

Not an introductory rate. I have had account there for years/

Mortgage rates are already over 6% and they are gonna get raised at least one more time this year, probably twice. It will be 7.5% by the end of the year, IMO.

Got it, thank you, Sir.

it’s the market alternative investments most people should be considering or researching. Diversity may not make you rich but you damn sure won’t ever be as poor.

yeah age 70 and being invested in the market heavily is not a good idea - especially if you are using your investments to provide some of your income. For those that say "just ride it out" - that is easy when you are in your 30-50's. But when you are having to withdraw money for income then the down market is a double hit. Hard to make it up when your investments are down 30% plus you are pulling money out at the same time.

I have preached for years - if you are within 5 years of retirement then it is time to greatly reduce your market exposure - I am 70 and have 90% in fixed and safe places (3.5% in my fixed 401k and the rest in fixed rate annuities) --- the other 10% is in very conservative mutual funds that I do not need to touch - my 2 cents

Yeah but they suck as a company. Been there , tried that, hate them.

Buzzsaw. I'm not a financial planner. I learned how to manage my money in a way I felt was best for me. Every person's situation is going to be different. I'm still in for the long haul so I can take more risk. I understand your pain. I have a close friend who until recently had his money with Fisher. I think he was down quite a bit more than you. They still had him in some stocks that had benefitted from covid, now crashed with covid over. And only in individual stocks. He is probably back in a traditional 60/40 broad index and bond funds on his own now, but who knows if Fisher might have done him well over time if he remained patient and stayed with them. Probably more pain ahead, but I do know the market will recover. Might take two years, might take two months. I am buying here, but again I am in it for years to come and still investing new income more than ever before.

Just hold on till people start jumping from buildings in New York

Something I've noticed, particularly in the last couple of decades, with friends dying, etc. With women it's a little less of a gamble, but with a man - the 7th decade seems to be a real crap shoot. 'Pretty sure the Bible mentions it. If the Good Lord grants me 8 more years and I make it to 70, I'm gonna try very hard to live each day like it might be my last, which we should all do anyways. And that includes spending a little coin and trying not to worry. If I can still drive, I'm buyin' me a fast car.

I've been trying

Hell may hath froze over. I agree with Huck.

For market alternatives the best advice I would give would be to find a mentor who does it for a living, or does it a lot, and learn from them.

Not there yet, but if so, I would listen to this sage advice.

Momma be 83. When daddy died, we were more concerned with preservation of principle than trying to make up for what should have been made before.

Buzz, if you want some downside protection you could buy a little SPXU. It's an inverse leveraged ETF. If the market drops more you'll limit some losses...not a bad option for reducing short term downside risk.

I’m not a financial advisor and don’t claim to know much. That’s why I use a financial advisor.
No one can help you much at all without knowing a whole lot more about your situation. Losing 40k out of 100k is a lot but not so much out of a million. If you want help it would help a little to say x% down.
If you use an advisor I suggest using a fiduciary. I think that simply means they have a legal obligation to act in your best interest.
Some people, like Doc, have spent a lot of time learning about this stuff. You and I aren’t like that so I wouldn’t suggest you manage your own money unless you go ultra conservative. I’m right at your age and I don’t consider myself heavily invested but I am not as conservative as tlk(tlk is smart so not saying he’s wrong.) Everyone’s situation is soooo different.
If you use an advisor they should be asking you about your risk tolerance and how long you plan on keeping X amount of money without touching it.
Also, it seems obvious you shouldn’t be screaming at your advisor. It’s not their fault the market is down. If you know enough that they are advising you poorly then that’s different(still scream after pulling money).
At your age you should be able to withstand down markets without worry. If that’s not the case then the ratio you are invested is wrong “for you”.
Btw, anytime I used the term “invested” I probably meant in equities as opposed to fixed income. Any advisor can explain the difference in those. Good luck

I think it was Mark Twain who said "I am more interested in the return OF my money than the return ON my money"

When I saw the 2008 financial crisis brewing I sold all equities and stayed out for awhile.

I didn't read every one of these. I would not tell anyone what to do with stocks. Powell and company could change their game plan tomorrow and you would see a BS rocket in stocks tomorrow straight up. By BS I mean companies that are not profitable, never have been profitable, likely never will be profitable, go straight up. If you have those stocks then you make the decision what and when to do if the Fed does the QE again and those non-profitable companies shoot up again.

Cash is another story. I've said it before and will say it again. I would not have one penny in any of the five or so largest banks. They all trade derivatives, Credit Default Swaps. Those banks have hundreds of TRILLIONS in derivative exposure. FDIC, that warm and fuzzy feeling institution, has about 1/100% of what it would take to bail out the banks.

Do your homework. Search terms like derivatives, Credit Default Swaps, banks risks, it isn't that hard. You will find names like JP Morgan/Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, etc. The "canary in the coal mine WAS Deutsch Bank. Now it is Credit Suisse. There is this huge county party risk. If either of those two crater tomorrow it is possible that there could be a domino effect that could shut down banking globally.

Watch the movie "Too Big to Fail" right now. It is an accurate depiction of how very close we came to waking up to all banks closed. That would mean plastic quits working. If you think the food stamp card failure in south Louisiana that ransacked a Walmart was something................

I live in small town America and have some cash in each of three banks. There is nothing preventing you Dallasites from venturing out of that metromess and opening an account in a highly rated small town bank. Other than that......Treasury Direct. My cash right now is earning zip in T-Bills. My depreciation on cash is my cost of being ready to pounce on an investment when I think the time is right.

I listen to his show on radio alot - overall pretty good advice - I have just always had trouble when someone says they can predict the market -

Already happening. The CFO or CEO of Bed Bath & Beyond took the leap a few weeks ago

Too many are just not sophisticated enuff and thinks they can just tell an advisor, "I want to make the highest return possible without losing any.". That there is lala land stuff.

Earth to Buzz, you are 70. Don't put yourself in the position where you have to earn something twice. Bringing an account back up is harder than when it drops.

Last sentence is dead on. Most folks do not realize that when you lose 30% of $100,000 (for example) your $70,000 that is left has to earn MORE than 30% back to get to even -

and if you are having to continue to take withdrawals for income on the $70,000 then it will take even that much MORE to get back to even

Yeah but that’s because he committed a crime and got caught but didn’t want to pay the consequences.

Speaking of which.....

To answer huntnfly and ntxtrapper ------- if you had bought $50,000 of DVN you would make $4800 in 6 weeks.

I believe they're referring to the $50K bet you placed when you said good luck finding my hidden safe. Literally within minutes they found it and you were crickets.

lol no one found my safe ----lol---- they found my house ---------- that's no secret ------------ I pm'd sniper john ---------- I"ll reprint it here. fyi -

John ---(gumshoe) --- pretty good work ! Long ago I worked for the NSA as a Russian Linguist, hence I have an idea of how to hide things ---------- Now for part 2, why I still would bet $50K that my guns would not be found. Look up Ragin Cajun storage -------- I have 3 people that live there, one is a retired federal marshal ------ super camera system there, and what I consider total security. Out of 140 units I have my 'office' in one of them , it just looks like another unit from the outside,,, that is where my guns are. If you ever pass thru Temple, let me know,,, I"ll buy you lunch.
Donald.

Happy days are here again. How long will they last?

Buzz doesn’t post when the market goes up 1500 points in 2 days?

Market has downside potential to go in the next year. Hopefully it will get there quick so there is not a long drawn out stag market. buy you some dividend stocks Buzz, BTI is paying over 7% and makes good money in every market

Set to open 300 points down. Day Traders took their gains yesterday for the day after buying down the day before and sold. Roller Coaster Ride.

Serious question, are you saying Day Traders can cause the Market to swing that much? Im not putting a major effort into learning this stuff, but I do try to learn bits and pieces when I can.

Over 50% of trades in the market are algorithmic. Computer programs making trades based on coded parameters. There is an infinite number of combined factors that can change market supply and demand every day.

The computers will be our downfall.

There should be a survey on "day trader" suicides. Should be interesting.

When the equity market and bond market are both down ~20% YTD you are supposed to have less money than you did a year ago. However, real winning in the stock market game is time in the market. Yes I’m down big time from the peak just over a year ago, but some I started a few years ago I’m still up 7% overall so that’s good enough for me. Anymore than that and you aren’t following the trend that has occurred the past 100 years.