Stock Market

Ugly Day
Unfortunately I think it's going to get a lot worse.


S&P 500 4,594.08 -82.95 (-1.77%)

NASDAQ Composite 14,584.62 -351.27 (-2.35%)

Bad news travels like wildfire.

It's been a bad year, Lol.

My 401K was up 23% last year. So far this year I'm down about 3-4%. The market is crazy and will drop several hundred points and then come right back up on a day or so. Just gotta let it ride!

Only if you are retiring, outside of that it's Jan. Always drops some. I always try to have a large cash position just for Jan. Only year my plan backfired a little was trumps election year

Every time Biden speaks, it bleeds. He’s only going to be worse with mid terms coming later this year

Set it and forget it. In for the long haul.

Same here. In fact on the 3rd, my combined portfolio was at an all time high. Rather than ride though I took profits (and some losses) on all my current trades. And since I have been way heavy in big tech since the early days of covid, I also sold much of my big tech/QQQ stuff over the last two weeks to build cash again. More than usual, so for me that hit is not as bad as it could have been today. The new cash is going back into mostly S&P500 VOO and Total Stock Market VTI funds during these dips like today and will ride from there. I don't think I can beat that this year.

I’m playing the pinks and they’re doing ok today.

Yeah the little oil company is chugging right along!

I'm sitting at 23% for the last 12 months. Ride the waves.

Thank you Joe

Nasdaq just finished up

All hail Petroteq. Bunch of my positions sold automatically last week so same story of lessened losses and sheltering in cash. DWAC was up again, lol.

The sky is falling! Not, DJIA still 5000 points higher than a year ago.

Wow little oil company up another 15% today! Looking Sweet

😎

I have actually had good years for the last 3yrs. Like I stated earlier I was up 23% last year and was up 30% the two previous years. When Covid hit in 2020 I took a big loss (about 70K) in a week or so time period. I left my funds where they were and I made it all back and more. I am not big on the market or keeping up with everything and making moves all the time. I check the funds that my 401K (Prudential) offers and base my selections off the 3yr and 5yr returns for them. I have been doing well so have not made any changes in a while.

Growth companies that have yet to show a profit have been overvalued for quite a while IMO.......investors start to pay attention when money becomes more expensive for these types of companies.....dividend paying companies with strong balance sheets and cash flow are having a good year and will continue to IMO.....

For some of us over 65 time isn't on my side, let it ride doesn't work.

Watch the movie Too Big To Fail. A lot on this forum are in big cities and bank at one of the five or so biggest banks. The biggest banks have $TRILLIONS$ of exposure in derivatives. Think about it. If you were their derivatives trader that would be like you being at a poker table and you cannot lose, at least anything but your job.

I wouldn't have fifteen cents in anything but a small town highly rated bank. The biggest banks have back room traders trading derivatives. Forget FDIC. The last time I looked they didn't have enough funding to put out a burning match on wet concrete compared to just Chase bank's derivatives risk, much less the next five or so.

Brag all you want about your returns. However, if any of you want to park some cash somewhere besides one of the banks most likely to lose your cash check out Treasury Direct. If they go down then we really are down to beans and bullets. At least there you have the dry powder for a potential deal.

I don't remember how Warren Buffet put it. I'll just paraphrase. When there is blood in the streets mop it up. Your cash earning zip will be ready to mop up some deals.

EDIT: Treasury Direct has about the worst website I've ever used. I cannot believe how bad it is. I guess I'll just chalk it up to being a federal agency. However, that is where you can park cash in Treasury Bills. For myself, forget anything past a 30 day commitment there. Only an idiot would buy a US Treasury Bond in this interest changing environment.

Would you "loan" your money to the liberals for any term over a month?

Yes I agree with you on this. If your close to retirement age you definitely want to have it in something more guaranteed. I know nothing is guaranteed (except death & taxes) but something less volatile with market change.

Is the panic over?

Inflation bonds are paying 7.12% right now and compound. Not a bad place to store small amounts of cash over time if your wanting to park it someplace safe. The bad is you can only buy $10,000 a year through treasury direct and you can't buy them in a pre tax account. You can sell anytime with only like a three months interest penalty which would be no big deal. My original emergency fund is still in paper I bonds and earning double digit interest since the older I bonds included a fixed interest.

Ride it like it is a roller coaster.

wrong - there is something guaranteed - an immediate income annuity - pays you a monthly income (or you and your spouse) no matter what the account balance is - if you are looking for a lifelong guaranteed income then research immediate income annuities

If anyone following this is interested in asset protection you should look into the immediate annuity mentioned here. It's not for everyone. I determined it didn't suit my needs. However, one article I read referred to Texas and Florida as something like "annuity utopia." It is a state specific deal. Doctors flock to Florida and Texas and buy immediate annuities. Malpractice suits---bring it on.

I haven't looked at this for a few years. If nothing has changed, if you are sued that immediate annuity somehow protects you, as in the person suing you cannot get to it.

The drawback is once you commit to this type of annuity you are locked. You cannot get out of it.

If I were to want one it would have to be with one of the top strongest insurance companies in the US. I briefly talked to a Northwestern Mutual Agent and then decided this wasn't for me.

I'm not even going to Google it because I like the current crop of adds I'm being served and don't want to see finance ads replace them. However I will say that there are dividend funds that don't have a lot of growth but they do have good income. Look into qyld and a couple others like it.

What? You should have a Northwestern Mutual ad in your face just by reading the post.

make it stop John !!

Yelp look at the 15 year average divided and performance on NLY

My ladies in the airport ads are gone! sad day.

Trump mentioned this in his campaign.

Best advice I ever got was from the wealthiest man I personally know. "Put your money in the market, go long term and pay no attention to the market", Just look at the DOW over the last 30 years. That's about the same time I got into the market. It takes a hit from time to time but it always comes back and improves, when you constantly buy you take advantage of the hit's.

https://www.macrotrends.net/1319/dow-jones-100-year-historical-chart

My IRA stays about the same after I take out my MDR.

Set it and forget it is what I've done for the last 19 years.

RMD Bill

Key takeaways from JPM and BR 2022 outlook calls:

+ They expect a good stock market year with high single digits or low double digits return. Still favoring value over growth stocks but more balanced than 2021.

+ They expect higher returns coming from EM, Europe, China and Japan over US stocks in 2022.

+ They expect inflation to be around 3.5% in the next 2-3 months and 2.5% by the end of the year

+ They expect GDP to grow slower than in 2021 (was ~5.5%} to about ~3.5% in 2022

Lol....riiiight. Gotta be some magic bullet they must know about to solve ALL the problems.

I guess we will see.

Funny that they expect to see a good stock market year when the chart you posted shows midterm years suck

Sold a few losers yesterday. I may increase my position in oil stocks. NVDA also looks attractive right now.

The only long swing trades I kept when I was doing my rebalancing recently was in Financial/Bank and Energy ETFs. I was late getting back into the Energy/Oil stuff and playing it fairly safe mostly in RYE which is equal weight fund, but it sure is doing well. I was considering increasing it as well.

I mostly agree with this. Dollar cost averaging into a balanced portfolio in a ratio related to risk tolerance is the way to go.

But I do regret not educating myself on investing and the stock market early in my career. Outside of a balanced portfolio, I wish I had set a portion aside for more risk, but researched, not speculative risk. And taking opportunities when it was obvious.

It was probably blind luck but I dumped a lot of oil stocks when Delta hit. Held the proceeds in cash and jumped back in when oil started to go back up.

I thought the Halliburton chart looked good a couple of weeks ago after I noticed the rest of the sector was popping off. Hit my profit target a last week and bailed since it was going so slow, then yesterday the pop I had been waiting for hit. Oh well.

I’m 35 and never had anything invested in the stock market before other than my company retirement. We put a considerable sum for us in last week, hope it goes well.

only down $18,000 in my portfolio and it SUCKS !!!!

This year isn't starting off so bad.
2022 YTD Investments
Personal Rate of Return
16.26%
Year To Date

As long as you are not using borrowed money to play the market and you have enough in cash to cover yourself for a couple of years at the most everything will work out just fine. If it doesn't the whole country in in deep Do Do.

There is more than one way to borrow money to invest, margin debt. It is at an all time high.

I personally think this should have never been allowed in the first place because when a market starts selling off margin calls just cause more selling. It is bad for everybody in the markets, except the short sellers.

https://www.investopedia.com/margin-debt-reaches-new-high-5093761

From my Edward Jones rep...

2022 Outlook: Less Is More

I think a lot of new investors/traders got into the market just after the covid crash. You could have picked stocks throwing a dart at the board and made money and everyone starts to feel like an expert in a bull market. I don't doubt a lot of new traders were trading on margin last couple years and could be playing with fire now. I know I was pulling every bit of cash I could find to put in it, but I called and had margin removed from my accounts so I would not be tempted by it.

Besides the temptation to trade in excess there is another bit of info flying around. How accurate it is I don't know, but I was told that if you have a margin account that your brokerage can "loan your shares" to a short seller in order for that short seller to be legally in compliance. I know there is a lot of illegal naked short selling going on. However, I still don't want my shares loaned to anybody. If something could go wrong likely it would.

If you believe that inflation is going to plague us for a while and rates are going to increase (and they will at some point), what is the best stock to buy as a defensive position?

Inflation bonds are safest hedge

That 7.12% sounds pretty good.

Small caps have been getting absolutely hammered the last 6 months

If I had a pile of cash ready, thats where id go

It takes a stomach for it but thats just what I prefer

Gimme blue chip, high dividend or small cap, not profitable

I cant stand the boring stuff

VTI and chill. Allday everyday. No one knows nothing.

I have done great with KO, XOM, APPL, and MSFT

Im sure you have, I kick myself daily for not loading the boat on TSLA

Thing is, my gut told me to a few years ago and I didn't

It'll be the one that got away for me

I always sell when the market is high, and buy when the market is low.

Are you currently buying or selling

Been getting killed as of late

Same here. In fact on the 3rd, my combined portfolio was at an all time high. Rather than ride though I took profits (and some losses) on all my current trades. And since I have been way heavy in big tech since the early days of covid, I also sold much of my big tech/QQQ stuff over the last two weeks to build cash again. More than usual, so for me that hit is not as bad as it could have been today. The new cash is going back into mostly S&P500 VOO and Total Stock Market VTI funds during these dips like today and will ride from there. I don't think I can beat that this year.
[/quote]


So ideally how much of your portfolio do you like to see in tech? 30%?

It depends, if the market is up I sell, if it is down I buy. You have to be really smarter than anyone else for the strategy, so not for everyone.

So ideally how much of your portfolio do you like to see in tech? 30%?
[/quote]

I sent you the long answer via pm. I went 30% to 40% Microsoft/Apple/Google/Amazon and QQQ in April 2020. Amazon was my largest holding early on, but using Guy's trading strategy I flipped it about 5 times since then and did not buy it back last time. As of the beginning of January I am now around 10% only in Microsoft/Apple/Google. I am mostly in VTI and VOO now which does have some Tech in them as well.

Bought 200 shares @ 1800. Split 5 to 1. Sold at 1000. Wish I had bought at 400 like my son told me to.

My wife almost died when I told her I bought $500,000.00 of XOM when the market tanked in 2020.
But, it's already more than doubled in market value and has payed dividends 6 times.

I bought small positions in TSLA about three times and took quick profits each time. I just could not stomach the P/E ratio on it thinking it could crash at any time and Elon was coming across as an unpredictable nut. The P/E ratio even now is over 300. Like your son, I also had people close to me telling me to load up on it and hold. I missed that boat too.

"got to know when to holdem"

"and when to foldem"

Is Closed Tomorrow

I dumped it all upon retirement. That's no time for risk if you don't have to. I'm glad I did.

'Never could stand that silly song.

Are you getting worried yet?

Not hardly. Not me anyway.

The S&P 500 only closed down 17 points from the intraday figure I posted when I started this thread a week ago. I am in buy mode waiting on lower lows, so I be watching the market like.....

Funny, I'm up 20% already in 2022. Oil is the future.

And you remember what they did to Brave Heart in the end. It wasn't pretty.

Appropriate. When it does crash, it will be the mother of all crashes and people will get disemboweled, drawn and quartered.

Well, I do hope I don't end up with my head on a spike above the London bridge.

I was late to the game so only up 15%. If like Biden you think Russia is going to invade Ukraine, this would be your best hedge to the market. Oil prices would go to the moon.

Aaaaand.... It got worse

Remember how low it went when COVID was at its worst? Looking at it like being a rubber band that's being pulled back. The future looks good so long as it doesn't snap.

Ugly week!!!

Another week

Looks like the start of this week is bringing more ugly. Futures this morning look awful. I am still in almost 1/3 cash from the rebalancing selling I did at the beginning of this month. It's nerve racking deciding on a target point to start buying back in.

Turning into a bloodbath this morning. Before retiring at the end of Dec, I moved 75% of my TSP funds from the Lifecycle 2050 into the G fund.

I know we aren't all in the same position. For me, I'd rather just see it sink fast, 1,000+ points at a time. I've got 2/3 of my investments in cash/money market just waiting to get back in, and it's easier to timely DCA when it goes down in big chunks.

I wish my investments were 2/3 cash instead of 1/3. The Dow was over 1000 points down a little while ago. I still think it's too early to start buying yet, but who knows. This Russia thing is going to be an Elephant in a china factory.

Only 650 down now. It will be a seesaw week

Yes it will. I looked at Crypto. Bitcoin was down around 20% for the week and Ethereum around 30%. I bet the new Crypto investors who held are freaking out.

now only -420...

360 now. My guess is it will either slide quickly downhill over the next hour, or close relatively even with a drop tomorrow. Seems like the quants are driving a bunch of this

What a ride.
I just turned positive for the day overall.

Comical. 1200 point swing so far from low to high

You will live a lot longer if you do not watch it every day.

What he said.

Amazing...down all day then everything closes in the green!

Been saying it since the recovery from the Great Recession - erratic is the new norm.

I loaded up on CRLB @ 5.50 today it ended UP to a green day I think I hit it close to the bottom..

They say never put all your eggs in one basket, I hope I don't trip... Now Lets Go Brandon and get SAFE Passed.

They always over sell and over buy, two panic stages and then it settles down.

Love it or hate it there's no truer words spoken.

The Plunge Protection Team (Feds) pulled this dog out of the hole today.

Crazy day. Won’t be the last in the near future, I think.

Don't over play your hand.

I had a lot of oil stocks, HAD...

know when to walk away and know when to fold

Don't put all your eggs in one basket.

Never kick a fresh turd on a hot day.

Don't wear white after labor day.

Stop and smell the roses.

If it don't stink don't stir it.

Wish in one hand a sh*t in the other. See which gets full the fastest.

You can't make a silk purse out of a sows ear.

"Don't tell me what you value, show me your budget, and I'll tell you what you value." — Joe Biden.

You can pick your friends and ya can pick your nose but ya can’t pick your friends noses

I lost 10% of my account last week, my XOM options made up for a little, so I'm only down 5% total. Ouchy!

That's probably enough whisky EK.

You can lead a horse to water, but you can't lead a horticulture.

As long as you don't sell you haven't lost anything.

you can tune a piano but can't tuna fish

You can take a horse to water and water to a horse.

Here I sit broken hearted. Came to sh*t and only farted.

Back a few years ago one of the pilots on the plane I worked on wanted to become a day trader. He had tried it on his own and had lost his rear. He got in touch with one in Chicago who for $5000 who work with him for a couple of days letting him observe. He did it and then proceeded to lost the rest of his A**. Never heard much about him and stock markets after that.

two more years of this chit

Well it looks like Ol Chuck is gonna let SAFE Banking go on it's own it's about to get interesting in this sector.. Keep an eye on these Lil green stocks and watch them start to grow.

https://www.marijuanamoment.net/mar...ng-committee-action-on-large-scale-bill/

So illegal weed sales are ok, not illegal gun sales.

FB is down $74 after hours

they can crash and burn for all i care.

Yeppers!

Get you some Alphabet, they announced a 20 for 1 split today along with outstanding quarterly results. Split doesn’t make it more valuable, just more accessible/active, along with good results means goodness.

Charlie

Sometimes a person should rely on their own sense of right and wrong and not let their crooked government do it for them.

Does anyone's sense of right or wrong see anything right or wrong with the Federal Reserve increasing US Dollars five fold in two years?

Yes, I see something wrong. Seems to me that Fred is f$&@#%*.

This is a redneck forum, you should probably explain yourself more.

There you go.

Completely baseless opinion, but I expect to see the floor drop out of the market before close today

I forgot when the last Fed unscheduled meeting was. I remember one where a rate adjustment happened and the market didn't do well that day.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/why-fed-holding-expedited-closed-board-meeting-monday

Oil running hard!

Well that didn't take long. I posted my comment when we were down 80. 30 minutes later and we are down 410 and dropping

Up one day and down the next...typical

Roller coaster.

Are we rich yet?

A couple hours ago PBS reported on chatter out of Russia indicating a Ukraine invasion was likely and could happen at any time. This is what triggered the market dip. The whole thing may just be saber rattling and psychological warfare or could be the real deal. I am surprised the market has not reacted worse. I'm still sitting on cash in six figures leftover from the Nasdaq related stuff I sold beginning of January waiting for that bigger market correction to put the rest of it back in. I know they say you can't time the market, but I will have prevented at least a 15% loss on a third of my investments and likely much more if we get a black swan from this Ukraine stuff.

I’m still way better off than I was 10 years ago.

DOW going to 70k..............you cant fight inflation.

Series I bonds.

You can't time the market. Thinking you can says more about your ego than just about anything else.

Ego? Ouch. Why the hate? Let me explain. My Nasdaq related investments well more than doubled during Covid. I was extremely overweight in that sector. With the Feds raising rates and easing back on bond buying, research and past history and everything else going on indicated Big Tech was not going to do well in the short term. So I sold to rebalance during an all time high rally and immediately after. Set limit orders to start buying at market correction territory as my target. A month and 2500 point drop in the Nasdaq later, those first buy limit orders started filling. The rest of the limit buy orders will dollar cost average on further drops until I am all in again. Or on the way back up to where I sold if need be, but I doubt I will have to do that. No ego involved. Just DD. I have been day and swing trading since I retired and saw it as a no brainer since I am watching the market every day and needed to rebalance my long hold investments anyway.

I have been buying some myself. That guaranteed 7.12% return is not a bad deal right now.

Just received my TSP yearly statement and I made 8.45 last year. I'll take it.

mine made 12.79 we could have made a lot more if it was all in stocks

My little oil company was up 281% since October when I started selling. Need to find another one like it!!

Chit is killin part of my portfolio. Down over $15,000

CGXEF

Guyana play- just hit hydrocarbons on an offshore drill. Should have results this next week if commercial grade or not. If so, expect them to get a JV with a big name to aid in farming out the additional 30+ wells planned. Plus they are building the only deep water port for the area. Money to be made short term but likely tons of runway for the long term as that area is the new place to be for oil companies.

youre daughter cost you that Buzz.......not the DOW

Yea, I had already moved most into the G fund anticipating a big drop and then my eoy retirement.

Cut that cord!

OH GOD !!!

I'm down $100K

For the rednecks, money printing is bad. More dollars = dollars worth less. Inflation IS the increase in money supply. More money chasing the same goods means prices go up.

Not open today.

there are no rules..............takewhat you can, steal the rest. our leaders have no honor. giddyup

Today could be a wild day.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/boardmeetings/20220214closed.htm

😳

I don't recommend looking at your 401ks today.

For fun I have a very tiny small 4 stock spec portfolio on the cash app. $150 total invested. Got up to $250 and down to $108 now. And one is Tesla that is still up 18%. Got some real winners in there...One is down 79%.

I moved most of my TSP account into the G fund mid-December anticipating a new year crash.

Yep, going to be a chit show for a while.

If the Dow will get back down to 30k then my next DCA will kick in

Don’t tell Buzz, he may have a stroke.

I thought he told his broker to go all cash last year

I have 3 brokerage accounts. I dumped all my Home Depot yesterday. I might take gains in Microsoft and UPS tomorrow.

Ugly 2022

Margin selling in the morning:

There will be 2 bloodbaths tomorrow morning.

I finally decided I was ready to play this past weekend…. just as everything is crashing lol. Any of you guys trade options?

Futures at midnight. Bad as expected, but I expected much worse with the start of a full scale invasion on Ukraine. Lots of time to get worse between now and morning though.

DOW 32,450.90 -680.9 -2.06%

S&P500 4,139.30 -86.2 -2.04%

Welcome to the Bear market - been here many times before - sit tight and do not panic -

Oil is energy. Play there.

Took the $100 I had left and cashed out

The smart folks are picking up some bargains.

Your gonna need that for a tank of fuel for the Vette!

I bet the Dow drops to 31000 today...and that wont even be the bottom. It's going to be a rough ride.

If it gets into the 30's then I'm putting 10% of what's sidelined back in

That will be a great buying opportunity if it happens but I would bet against it…..

It's really not that bad for what is going on. At least not that bad yet. I was buying off my watch list as fast as I could this morning but it started recovering from the opening faster than I could get all my orders in. I had cancelled my limit orders last night in case there was a big extended free fall.

Wait until someone claims that saw it coming and sold.

"Buy on the sound of cannons, sell on the sound of trumpets" Kind of has a literal meaning today.

Most of the financial analysts forecasted a big downturn this year but not due to reasons of war.

Dow just went green....Hope nobody sold this morning.

All three indices closed green. I knew this morning was a good buying opportunity and would recover, but did not expect it to move this fast. I had been wanting to start a new long holding of Lithium/Battery/Rare Earth investments and grabbed that opportunity this morning at open. I'm well into the green on those.

From a stocks perspective, today was an amazing day to watch unfold. What was it, like an 800-900 point swing on the Dow and 600-700 on the Nasdaq? Why such a huge swing, so late today?

Charlie

The wild ride isn't over. Oil/gas came back down which shifted the market, also I believe that people were watching others take refuge in treasuries which helps adjust interest rate implications (potentially). I expect to see red this week in the markets and green in the commodities

It was fun to watch. I think the big turn back was when it became obvious there was not going to be the full mother of all sanctions originally promised. Specifically Russia not being removed from SWIFT. No sanctions on Russian oil or gas. Also, investors perhaps started thinking the Feds will be more dovish on rates and policy due to current events. And I agree, the wild ride isn't over.

Joe B. also fully committed to no US troops in Ukraine fighting Russia at his 2:00pm presser, markets turned sharply right after that..

I think there's alot to this statement.

Charlie

Pleasantly surprised at the end of the day.

I am just wondering if the reason the market rebounded is because nobody knows where else to put money. After so long the market being the only place to actually make any folks don't know what else to do? Some are in for a rude awakening.

Interesting stats from my financial guy

Not surprising at all.

Corona fall made a few millions

On a roll today.

So how many of yalls crystal balls predicted today?

Just like I said. Where else are people going to put their money and maybe it will grow? Sure as hell aren't CD's. All of a sudden a few folks buy some stocks. Then a few more. It turns into a feeding frenzy. What happens next week when they wonder what did I do Friday?

Love how the market is rebounding when we say we are cutting off Russian oil, WTI is going to $130+, and we are going to get more supply from Venezuela and Iran. Speculation is laughable at the moment, no way earnings stay high on most companies with cost of transport alone not to mention components

JMO - The potato should have threatened cutting off the oil when they started amassing on the border and cut it immediately when they crossed over. I'm thinking this would have kept gas below $4... here at least.

this high oil priceabout guarantees no interest rate hike from the fed

Disagree

X2

x3

We were warned.

Trump warned Germany that dependence on Russian oil was going to be a disaster. They laughed at him. We had energy independence, Biden ended that. The election was stolen, not because of Trump's personality, but because he was spoiling the DS's plans. Americans had better get ready for a fight.

Amazon announces 20-for-1 stock split

https://finance.yahoo.com/video/amazon-announces-20-1-stock-215510121.html

2,785.58 +65.29 (+2.40%)
At close: 04:00PM EST

2,977.10 +191.52 (+6.88%)
After hours: 6:53PM EST

Well crap. I had a limit order yesterday for some Amazon shares that got within $7 of hitting and so did not fill.

We might just be fighting domestically and overseas.

They will raise until the recession starts…… which will be here sooner than later IMO…..

Petroteq Tender offer to buy shares:
https://www.marketscreener.com/quot...el-per-day-Oil-Sands-Extractio-39970525/

Holding.

Your holding Petroteq Energy stock?

Well yes I am! Hoping for the tender to go thru on April 14

Well, good luck to you and Bill. I hope y'all make a bunch of money on it.

Sniper I all ready made a bunch. I had been tracking it for a number of years and had purchased 150 k shares at 0.11. When the price got to .41 I sold most of my shares. Kept 30k to let it ride and see if the buy out goes thru.