one for you non believers of the Covid 19

COVID-19
The Impact of the Pandemic
on Sporting Clays

For those of you that I have not had the pleasure to meet, please allow me to professionally introduce myself. I am a board-certified emergency physician with 22 years of clinical experience. I previously served as the California State EMS Director, responsible for the state’s medical response to disasters and pandemics. Earlier in my career, President George W. Bush selected me to serve as a White House Fellow. I was assigned as a direct advisor to the U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services during the time of the SARS pandemic.

For several days now I have been pondering the consequences of reducing
the social distancing measures that have been taken to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. My fear is that what comes next will likely be much worse than what we have been through. You have only to look at the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic to know everything there is to know about COVID-19. The corollaries are strikingly similar. Regardless, I have taken the time to
study the arguments on both sides of the issue, and I have read
everything available before reaching my conclusions.

The reasons why social distancing measures were established are simple:
a rapidly spreading new disease for which humans have no prior exposure or antibodies, coupled with a lack of available testing, and no effective treatments, no cure nor vaccine. These reasons have not changed. What has changed is the politics of the disease. Politicians on both sides of the aisle, and their proxies (CNN, FOX, MSNBC), have decided to quarrel, not on science but innuendo.

Yes, I understand the financial pain we are all feeling very well. I still have a job, but the healthcare slowdown has led to my hours being significantly reduced. We need to find ways to address the economic crisis, but not at the risk of our most vulnerable.

I also understand the emotional pain. I have not been able to hug, kiss or hold the hand of my elderly mother or my sister in nearly 2 months due to the fear of getting this disease at work and transmitting it at home. I have also not seen my significant other in 2 months as I continue my self-imposed quarantine.

Then, there is the issue of misinformation. It is clear that Americans have lost faith in government and scientists. We are looking for data to validate our feelings, not to assess reality. Unfortunately, inaccurate data is being presented to the public without analysis or scientific rigor. The media is also not doing much to question such "studies", thereby allowing charlatans to make all kinds of inaccurate claims about this disease. Even large reputable institutions like USC and Stanford are issuing press releases of studies without making them available for peer-review. We should not accept any medical data that is not available for peer-review, the standard for evaluating the quality and impact of scientific studies.

Not all tests are created equal. Many have received expedited approval from the FDA. It is unclear what the false-positive and false-negative test rates are for many of these tests. In our hospital, we routinely test COVID-19 patients over and over because of this concern. Sometimes it takes several positive or several negative tests before we can reach a conclusion about their disease status.

As for a vaccine, do not expect anything in the near future. Here are some notable examples. There is still no vaccine for SARS (a coronavirus), which caused a small pandemic in 2003. There is no vaccine for MERS (another coronavirus), which had a significant outbreak in 2012. There is no vaccine for Zika, which caused an epidemic in 2015. There is no vaccine for Ebola, first identified in 1976. And most famously, there is no vaccine for HIV, first identified in 1979. Scientists did succeed in creating a vaccine for the Spanish Flu (H1N1) that resulted in the 1918 pandemic. Such is included in your annual flu vaccine.

There are monumental efforts underway to find an effective vaccine for COVID-19. At the moment there are three vaccines in stage III trials (testing for safety and efficacy in humans), with about 20 more in the pipeline. Let us pray that scientists succeed soon!

As of today, we still have no effective treatment for COVID-19. Remdesivir has shown promise in phase III clinical trials, but there is much work to be done before it will become standard therapy, and it is likely to be reserved for the sickest hospitalized patients (only comes in an IV formulation at this time). Convalescent plasma (transfusion of plasma with antibodies from a COVID-19 survivor) also shows promise, but again, it is not widely available and has to be given in a research protocol, with prior FDA approval.

Many people seem to take comfort in that the disease may affect many with minimal symptoms. We are yet to fully understand the pathogenesis of this virus, so the assumptions may be premature. It is clear, however, that if a person is middle aged or older, and contracts the virus, the mortality is probably around 10%. Mortality increases further if the patient is obese, hypertensive, has heart or lung problems, or suffers from diabetes. This patient profile describes about 70 percent of all sporting clays shooters. It is also clear that many people infected with COVID-19 may transmit the disease days before they develop any symptoms, which is why I am so cautious around my own loved ones.

There are many that refuse to wear masks or other facial coverings in public. Likewise, others continue to carry on as if there was not a state of emergency.
I understand their claims of civil liberties, but such do not apply when carelessness on the part of some can lead to the rest becoming ill or dying of a contagious disease. In this case, the rights of the many outweigh the rights of the few.

This write up is not intended to scare you but to get you to pay attention. Wishful thinking is nice, but we cannot wish this disease away. I truly wish we could. This disease is horrible. Let me illustrate.

The chest x-ray above, is from a patient with some emphysema and mild pulmonary fibrosis.

This x-ray is from a patient with no prior medical problems, except for having COVID-19. Such patient tested positive and did not develop symptoms for nearly 2 weeks. He also violated his quarantine order and is probably responsible for the spread of the disease in several states. If you have never read the story of Typhoid Mary, please Google it. We will likely have many Typhoid Marys as soon as social distancing orders are lifted around the nation.

Please continue to protect yourself, you can still practice individual social distancing, wear a mask in public, avoid unnecessary outings, wash your hands often, and get medical treatment right away if you develop a fever, cough and shortness of breath.

Protect yourself and stay healthy,

Cesar Aristeiguieta
TSCA Director

He lost me at ,President George W. Bush.

Lost me at he worked w politicians

Lost me with all those words.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...uestions-coronavirus-tests-idUSKBN22G295

Thanks.

TL;DR we over reacted and china won. It is shameul

Lol!

X2

Doesn’t change my perception........and no mask for me......

And now they "whoever they is" is saying the lockdowns is going to cause over a million to die from TB because they can't get tested. And now the virus has mutated and whatever vaccine they are working on will not work. Maybe the virus is going to be the thing instead of an meteor that wipes out the human race. If that's the case we better get out there and enjoy life while we can.

I wear the mask in public. I see no down side to it I’m not very cute anyway. I agree thaT the economy must be opened. Yet, I believe there will be a heckuva cost in lives. That said, people have tp go to work and a thousand bucks from Trump will help some but not much.

Hang on; it could be a tough ride for humanity.

That was a waste of time, he said nothing we don’t already know.

Quite long but worth the time.

Lost me at California...

Yea, that's a good video. If you're still afraid, watch the video. It will ease your fears.

I'm loving it over here in Rockport. No one has to wear those stupid mask. I dont want to go back to San Antonio.

hows the fishing SA?

No bueno...... only one keeper spec. Gonna fish hard today, and tomorrow.

Screw him. If I want medical advice I’ll talk to my doc. It sure isn’t why I’ve voted for TSCA directors and paid gobs of target tax $ for.

Every one of these so called experts cites differing numbers.

He says 10% mortality if you contract the virus and have health issues.
I've seen several others lately that claim the rate is .01% IF you are over 65 and have health issues.

The virus is real. The question is: did we do the correct thing?
I don't think the true answers won't be known for a long time.

....and as a clays shooter I would question his claim, grouping people together - "patient is obese, hypertensive, has heart or lung problems, or suffers from diabetes. This patient profile describes about 70 percent of all sporting clays shooters."

Evidence That SARS-CoV-2, the Virus Strain That Causes COVID-19 Illness, Was Engineered?



I said this months back but the THF fake news pushers (the media is the enemy) cried conspiracy theory.

They still get paid.

Lost me at California.

The mortality rate is definitely not 0.01% for any age group. maybe 0.1%, but the numbers don't play out much lower than that. The current death numbers and presumed infection numbers suggest a mortality in the 0.5-0.6% range. To get to a 0.01% range we would need to have well over half the population already infected. Quick numbers show that given 70K deaths, to get a mortality rate of 0.01% would require 700M infections....double the population of the US. So there is no way it is that low. even saying the mortality is 0.1% would require 70M infections at this point, and we haven't gotten antibody data to say that 20% of the population has gotten it (current data suggests this is closer to 4%).

What are you using for bait? And where are you fishing in rockport? Have some buddies that fish there quite regularly and catch stuff almost every time they go out, but you gotta be willing to get wet and a little muddy....

Buzz we get it congratulations You are older and retired and a good nest egg to take care of your daughter. Some of us are trying to build that nest egg so that we can do the same thing Don't get in my way I did not get in yours.

I may have missed it, but why is the US mortality rate lower than the world's rate?

combination of things, more testing so more positives to balance out the deaths, better medical care, we didn't overwhelm the system for the most part, things like that.

If you look at the big picture, each state has their own numbers and Texas has been hit very lightly by comparison to most. Our per capita infection rate is low and our death rate is very low compared to most of the other big population states.

Last I heard, so was testing. Texas ranked last of the 5 most populous states. I guess numbers will tell when testing is ramped up.

Thank you Buzzsaw for your observations as a doctor and non-political viewpoint on the Covid-19 situation. There is so much misinformation on the net and in the media that I appreciate you taking your time to share your personal concern with the members on this forum. The more valid information we have allows each of us to make personal decisions on how we can protect ourselves as well as others around us. I personally am looking forward to your updates as you learn more.

Once I saw the sporting clays deal I figured I'd wait til it got sent to the shotgun forum...

I have a question...
Since South Dakota never locked down, shouldn’t the media be there documenting the excessive deaths that must be occurring there?

With a population density of 10 people per mile doesn’t excite the media.

They were social distancing decades ago, practicing for todays pandemic. If you have butthole deep snow and the wind is blowing 30 miles an hour and it is 10 below zero, you adapt with out being told to.

Buzz, unless I missed it, your treatment options made no mention of hydroxychlroquine. What are your thoughts on that? Have you seen the report about the medical director at the Houston nursing home who has prescribed it to hundreds of elderly patients and is seeing very positive results? The media won’t report that or similar stories because Trump touted it. God forbid the media, doctors or scientists who hate him put a positive spin on a drug that he said might be effective. Hell no, it could have negative side effects! Tell me, what doesn’t these days? The drug has been used for decades, but since Trump mentioned it, it’s horrible and shouldn’t be used to treat covid 19!