Dorian takes aim at Florida

This one is worth keeping a close eye on, it could jump into the gulf after it crosses Florida.

I have a friend who just bought a house in Great Abaco, uhm, yeah, he F

Not good. Every day it is a cat higher at landfall.

Damnt my niece just started NOVA SE university. Time to book a flight

Cathy lives in Orlando. Not sure if she will hunker down or head north.

She should be fine, as hurricanes tend to weaken rapidly when no longer over water
Most people from the coast are fleeing to...orlando

I have had a bad feeling about this one from the start, Dorian has led a charmed existence, it's avoided everything that has threatened to tear it apart, it just seems like it's destined to be be bad. I hope I'm wrong!

Pure greatness.

Frankie is the best ever

The weather and news channels are all happier than a bird with a french fry. Some have been showing scenes from past hurricanes just to increase the hype.

I'll never forget the sheer panic the news media created in the Houston area when Hurricane Rita was approaching Southeast Texas. It was just a month or two after Hurricane Katrina and the local news media did their absolute best to make sure everyone believed Rita would be just as bad if not worse. Several people died from exposure along I-45 when their cars ran out of gas, unable to move due to the numbers of people who got caught up in the hysteria. A bus full of elderly people would burn to death on I-45 between Houston and Dallas the day before the storm was "supposed" to hit the Houston area. In the end, it was a clear, sunny morning in Houston when officials were still cleaning up the aftermath of that horrible event. Rita would eventually turn and hit the the western tip of the Louisiana coast after being downgraded to a Category 3 storm.

Yes, it is a small storm so far but... So don't evacuate or go anywhere when you have days to prepare? Rita was the exception so far so you cannot base all from that one. My friends parents turned around and many others for Rita since the traffic jam was so bad. Still had no power for over 5 days when they got home. We all freak out with no power for 1 hour. I went 3 days in June and then no hot water for 5 days and made it work but was hell. Rita was a massive evacuation failure but lessons were learned so you can't base all storms off that one. As with all hurricanes these days, there is massive panic but only a lessor number are critically impacted so what do you do?? Sit, wait and hope you don't float way or now prepare days in advance? If I was in Houston and not in a flood area, you should be required to have generator and fuel. You can survive a long time but most don't prepare.

I'm trying not to watch the hype. I've got one kid in Miami and one kid in Jacksonville. The Miami daughter is my baby and she's having a baby, after losing two previous pregnancies. I've talked to both of them and asked questions about their preparedness and if they should stay, etc., but at the same time trying not to piss them off; they're both independent types and can fly off the handle at the drop of a hat. (I have no idea where they get that from.) The baby and her husband are supposed to be coming over here to Texas (flying) right before it hits, but I'm not sure they're gonna time that right. The one in Jacksonville says they're prepped and should be fine. Both of their husbands are supposed to be protecting them, but...millennial son-in-laws...who knows. They know how I feel. I'm sorry, it's just BS to live in that state, particularly the southern 1/2. Every year we gotta go through this.

So what building products company should we invest in right now for the rebuilding of Florida?

Hope everyone over there plays it safe with minimal damage and casualties.

Id ride this one out too

That's what she said.

Why? Have you ever rode out a hurricane before? It doesn't make you tough and it's about as much fun as a colonoscopy so unless you're into that stuff I would leave. Actually, I'd be gone yesterday.

Texas Dan will make a mountain out of a mile hill when it comes to things that dont matter, yet poo-poos people getting worried about a catastrophic event like a hurricane, which could kill people and destroy property. Some people just like to complain about shtuff. Sad.

Where is “bring it Bill”?

That one got him a few days in the slammer.

They said Dorian is a direct hit to Mister President Mar-a-Lago’s private estate.

Great. Then the lefties would say even God, whom they don't believe in, hates Trump.

4 to be exact..........Harvey was the last one. I was the only one in Jamaica Beach. And its because most of the time its too hard to get back home. Not because I'm tough , just hard headed. Sent my wife away every time.

Probably the best place to go. My buddy survived the big one that hit Cozemel/Cancun years ago. No where to go. Ate pb&j for 10 days. Wife tried to divorce him a few times.

New report says it could be the strongest in 30 years. Cathy is flying to Austin Saturday.

I remember when you did that. It had to be really eerie waiting to see where it was going to land.

We only got the rain from Harvey. Never lost power.

Dorian Update

Euro model doesn't have it making landfall now...

Roflmao. Hope they saved their receipt for the generator

What was the one years ago that hit the mid-Atlantic states and everyone over here was buying generators and hauling arse over there to gouge people?

Store shelves are empty. There are gas lines. Buying frenzy.

This is the 5:00 PM (EST) forecast discussion from NWS Melbourne. It looks to be on track to hit Florida.


111
FXUS62 KMLB 302100
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
500 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2019

.DISCUSSION...

...Major Hurricane Dorian a Threat to all of East Central Florida...
...Prolonged Period of Hurricane Conditions Possible...

Currently/Tonight...
While largely limited to points north of the I-4 Corridor, today`s
round of sct diurnal convection produced efficient rainmakers along
a weak frontal boundary with radar estimating some producing btwn 1-
2" rain amounts...lcl amounts btwn 3-4" btwn Lake Woodruff and
Glenwood. Heaviest rainfall has largely pushed out of the
CWA...isold additional shras/tsras will dissipate toward sunset with
little fanfare. Coastal shras forming over the Gulf Stream are
struggling to survive over the cooler shelf waters.

Deep E/SE flow will continue overnight as an inverted trof over the
FL peninsula pushes into the ern GOMex. These winds will tap a dry
air pocket over the Bahamas that will limit the potential for
nocturnal coastal shras. Will give a nod to the strength and depth
of the onshore flow and keep slgt chc of shras...and any that do
form will be insignificant. Steady onshore flow overnight will keep
min temps in the M/U70s.

Labor Day Weekend...
Brisk and deep easterly flow on Sat will back to the NE on Sunday as
Hurricane Dorian creeps toward the FL Peninsula. Relatively dry and
suppressed air will precede him with PWat values dropping to 1.75"-
2.00" with H85-H50 dewpoint depressions btwn 7-10C. Overall
shra/tsras activity will be limited, but due to the increasing
easterly flow, any that do form will be able to cover a large area.
Will cap PoPs at 40pct with only slgt chc of tsras.

Dorian has strengthened to a major hurricane and continues go grind
his west toward the NW Bahamas Sunday/Sunday night, where the
steering flow is expected to collapse. A considerable slowing of
forward motion is expected as he approaches the FL east coast
Mon/Mon night. A turn to the NW is forecast to occur over the FL
peninsula after he makes landfall on the Treasure Coast the mid/upr
ridge currently steering Dorian develops a weakness.

A Hurricane Watch is likely to be issued by midday Sat for at least
a portion of our coastline.

While a Day 4 landfall is currently forecast (avg track error arnd
150mi), it is becoming increasingly likely that east central Florida
Peninsula will experience a prolonged hurricane event due to the
weakening steering flow, as the official forecast indicates Dorian
will take two days to travel from the northern Bahamas to the I-10
Corridor.

Dorian is forecast to become a very dangerous category 4 hurricane
as he approaches the FL east coast. The situation is particularly
serious for all of central FL as the forecast track places the
entire area under Dorian`s powerful wind and torrential precip
fields late Monday into late Wednesday. Coastal communities will be
particularly vulnerable not only to the wind and rain, but to deadly
storm surge as well. It should be noted that tropical storm force
winds will precede the arrival of the storm center by several hours
prior to landfall.

Residents and visitors to Florida are urged to monitor the latest
are forecast from NHC and your local NWS office. Review your
hurricane preparedness plan and make sure necessary supplies are
fully stocked.

Tue-Fri...(prev disc)
Forecast is highly dependent on Dorian`s track and forward motion.
Official NHC forecast shows decreasing storm motion as Dorian
approaches the east coast so impacts look like they will persist
into the middle of next week. In fact, a prolonged wind and rain
event for east central Florida is looking more likely.

There's thin line between what is news and what is sensationalism when it comes to reporting on approaching hurricanes. Yesterday it was being reported that people in Florida can "expect" a direct hit. Now it appears there is a decent chance the storm will turn north and never reach the coast. Having lived within 90 miles of the Gulf Coast all my life, I know there is nothing that makes people decide to stay any more than earlier sensationalism that never panned out.

The fact is, 9 out of 10 people who lose their life in a Hurricane were in the area of the storm surge. The average person who doesn't live close to the expected storm surge area is far better off to just "hunker down". Yes, there are likely to be much inconvenience afterwards, but that too can be lessened with some key precautions.

I don't disagree.

At the end of the day, the most dangerous storms don't need sensationalism to make people respect them.

They say it's a cat 4 now at 130mph. I bet it makes it to cat 5 which would need to be 157mph.

Looks like no longer a direct hit, except for Bahamas

Still to early to tell. My wife has a theory that some of the earthquakes in that area might have something to do with the new path

I was supposed to fly into Orlando after lunch today to prepare for Dorian making landfall but that's been placed on hold for now...no telling where it's going to hit if it even does at all

Damned if you and damned if you don't.. I rode out several. They last about an hour. The biggest problem is getting back home when you leave.

I never lost power with this one. My biggest problem was dealing with State Farm.

Bill I haven’t heard anything good about State Farm since the 80s. They’re priced way too high for the service they give.

They had to send out refunds in Texas. They are now being sued for overcharging in California.

Latest forecast about 4 hours ago. Looks like a new ball game.

Except for the Bahamas, its gonna hit nada, nunca, nijet, all media hipe

I should have loaded up on home depot stock damn it!

Jim cantore already rolled his sleeves back up

Yes, a strong hurricane quickly becoming media waste.

I wonder if all the ill wishes from liberals caused god to turn the hurricane just to spite them?

Cnn and fox are both hoping it hits, to have more ratings, throwing commercials like a motha, pretty sick to watch, but i aint, as usa media is a plague

They now going, it should go east, but folks, please don't let your guard go down, please, its still a monster packing punch. stfu
They already estimating for Florida to be costing 40 billion.
My friend in great abaco should be panicking though, his house along the beach will endure cat 4 plus and will be most likely a total loss. He texted me today: yup, not good, but i insured my new house for market value plus 25%

Parts of the Bahamas will be flat.
Cat 5 hitting them real hard tomorrow.

https://www.sothebysrealty.com/eng/...0zb6u5AIVDNbACh2LDASLEAAYASAAEgJuAPD_BwE

All them fine homes gone

This is where my friend bought his house 6 months ago to retire in, Great Abaco.
I am afraid it will be a total loss today.

Not good. Looks like a direct hit.

Going to Fort Lauderdale on 9/13. Hope we have good fishing weather.

Some of my best saltwater fishing has been after hurricanes.

The eye will hit his house in 30 min, if there is anything left that is.
Cat 5, gust over 200 mph recorded

Did he leave or stay there?

Giddy up

Dorian Update 09/01/19

Weather Channel gal said sustained winds at 185 mph now gust over 200. Look at the perfect eye.

https://weather.com/?cm_ven=PS_GGL_...ppJiw5AIVCKrsCh3X9QfSEAAYASAAEgI11vD_BwE




Fox news said 185 sustained gust to 220 but check out her video on how perfect the whole storm is and is moving more westward which is not good.

https://www.foxnews.com/us/hurricane-dorian-bahamas-warning-florida-carolinas

He never went, he was supposed to vacation there next week.
I guess his next trip will be to meet with the insurance dude, months from now.
He just put all new furniture in there and a new golf cart that might land somewhere in Cuba tomorrow

He just cleared the eye, and know getting the back side of it, full force, opposite wind direction gusting 200 plus

Looks like Freeport is gonna get f up overnite

Hurricane hunters spot 'stadium effect' inside Dorian's eye amid 'extremely intense' storm.

https://www.foxnews.com/us/hurricane-dorian-eye-hunters-stadium-effect-cyclone







In the center of Hurricane Dorian, the eye of the storm reveals just how powerful it is.

The National Hurricane Center said in a 5 p.m. ET Sunday advisory that Dorian was a Category 5 storm with sustained winds of 185 mph and it was moving west at 5 mph, located about 95 miles east of Freeport on Grand Bahama Island in the Bahamas. The storm made landfall at 12:40 p.m. in Elbow Cay and is located about 175 miles east of West Palm Beach, Florida.


Air Force and reconnaissance planes from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration -- known as the "hurricane hunters" -- have been crisscrossing the "distinct eye" of Dorian, and discovered the hurricane has become "extremely intense with a stadium effect in the eye," according to the NHC.

HURRICANE DORIAN, CATEGORY 5 STORM, BEARS DOWN ON BAHAMAS

"Here's a look at what scientists call the "stadium effect" inside the eye of #Dorian from @NOAA scientists," the NHC said on Twitter. "This happens at times in very strong hurricanes."

That eye is THE most jaw dropping nature scene you will EVER witness. Its like looking at heaven, knowing hell is coming, but you just don't want to leave... Its truly mesmerizing. That, and a massive volcano eruption at night.

They should have shipped them cantoris and slidell snowflakes to the bahamas.
Them idiots now limping in a massive 2 inch floridian surf at the beach desperately trying to create gay drama.
Stupid idiots.

Seidel caught a lot of flack over this one. Watch the two guys strolling around behind him.

To Soon?

Wouldn't it be ironic if that dumbazz gets killed by the storm?

Saw one news report that it could build to Cat 6

Funny stuff! Fake news!

They are now surfing in evacuation areas.

Dorian might not be much for Florida but it's devastating the Abacos and Grand Bahama.

That always happens.

Cajun navy is headed east. Bless their hearts.

Cajun Navel huh? Never heard of that one but the Cajun Navy is headed east as well.