I’m trying to get a realistic ODDS of shooting a EXACT 12 point TYPICAL FREE RANGE BUCK. Researching from sources shows: Boone and Crockett says odds to make their book are 1/20,000. (this is not for your opinion on B&C, how big a buck you shot, or your high fence deer not counting) Their odds are based on 160 class deer; which a true 12 “possibly” could be as stats. show they are usually 5 to 7 years old. Polling taxidermist say 1/20,000 to 1/21,000. 50% of big deer are eights. The odds of shooting a typical big 8 or 10 are not close to a typical 6x6. What you say?

In my area, shooting a clean 12 is really really really low chance. Almost all the bucks at that age will have kickers or extra stuff they carry so it wouldn't be a clean 12.

I have one side of an antler shed that is exactly what you are asking for, it is as clean a 6x6 as I have ever seen. In fact, it looks just like the logo of a major hunting/outdoor brand. I have not seen the deer that dropped it nor have I ever found one like it since. It is pretty though.

Based on my own experience, I can't disagree with those odds. I've hunted Cross Timbers, East Texas, Hill Country and the Panhandle. I've hunted every deer season hard since I was 18 years old, so 43 seasons. Had I been in the panhandle the entire time, my odds would be much less than 1/20,000.

Very low on free range. In my 50+ years TX hunting from east to west to south I've really only seen one CLEAN typical 12 and that was last year in NW TX. He was beautiful but probably only 3.5-4 and I passed (likely never to see him again). I deer hunt now avg 30+ days yr.

I had 2 coming to my feeder last year, probably sire and son. Both were clean 12 points with one of them considerably heavier with a larger framed rack. They were showing up regularly until about 2 weeks before the season opened. I never saw them in person and never saw them on camera again. Good thing I did not count my chickens before they were hatched.

In 80% of the state your odds would be extremely low, especially given the 'Free Range' requirement. S Texas will be your best bet; the panhandle can grow them but the deer density is so low that you'll be hard-pressed to find one if he's out there. If the TX buck harvest is ~400,000 animals, and the 1/20,000 holds, that would suggest there were ~20 main frame 12pt bucks taken. One for every 12 counties on average, but are you in a county that can produce one? Are you on a place with the genetics, age, and nutrition to get it done? Will you be there the right day and time to cross paths?

I had a beautiful typical 12pt a few years ago and he was young, neighbor shot him at 3yrs old.
That's the reason I'm HF now, neighbors killing most everything at 3 or 4.

Good luck on your search, it's going to be a tough one to find.

Had a typical 10 that had G5 nubs but died of natural causes at 4.5. Tough one. Had a clean 12 but not symmetrical, he had 5 on one side and 7 on the other

I think those odds are way off for well managed areas of STX but in line for every where else

Only straight 12 I've definitely seen on cams off my place in 15+ years of ownership

A buddy of mine shot a clean 12 at our lease in Haskell 10 years ago. Never appeared on camera prior to him seeing him live.

^^That's a beautiful animal. And, as stated, they don't walk through every day. I've had one on trail cam, one time, but never saw him in person, and he didn't have as much mass as above. This kind of buck is what got high fence going. Some guys just gotta have it!

Hunted one hard a few years ago. Based on a cellular camera he was a regular but only showed up when I wasn't in the area. I would be at camp and get a cell cam pic on my phone. Changed my approach and parked farther away from my area. He showed up and I guessed him at 4.5. As I was deciding on whether or not to take him a big mature 8 that looked like a bull comes in and the fight was on. I enjoyed watching the fight 40 yards in front of me. It lasted for about 30 seconds and the 8 ran him off and chased him away. He was shot the following weekend by another hunter on the lease. Ended up being a 13 point due to a split brow I was not seeing on the photos. Very nice buck for his age and was happy for the hunter.

As usual, Im slightly confused. Are you asking the odds of a clean typ 12 that also scores 160, and is that net score?
And are you asking the odds of it existing or actually killing it(and before it breaks)?
On our lease the majority of all mature bucks will have at least one nontyp point or more which is probably above the norm and because of our genetics.
In the last few years the 4 of us have killed about 11 Trophy bucks between 150 and 181 and 2 were clean typicals. Only one had 12 typ mainframe points but he had 5 kickers.
It would be a wild guess, but I would say if all our guys tried to wait for a clean typ 12(we wouldnt) it would take over 5 years and a typ 12 over 160 net woud take maybe 20 years but wouldnt be impossible or 1/20000.
The location and all that goes with that would up your odds but its still a very tall order.
Personally I dont count points, per se, instead I want a high score and a big frame and/or something special in his look or the history with him.
Theres a member on here that I would say has enough history on his lease to offer decent perspective to the question you pose. I know he had at least one that meets your criteria but most of his have lots of nontyp also.
 If you are looking to hunt the animal you describe then give me a shout and I can suggest a package hunt(low fence) that might have a chance but likely would take many years of trying.

Good stuff; yes, I guess I was asking both. Thanks for the offer.

Almost. Had a kicker off the bottom of the base

This was a customer's perfect one that came off the Waggoner.

Both 140's though

Nice ones!

Hard to say what the odds would be of killing a clean 12. All I know is it is low. I killed one on a small low fence place about a decade ago. Never saw one before it or since.

When my new bride first started hunting with me about 48 years ago, she shot a clean 12. Back then, "high fence" wasn't even a word. and neither was
protean or any of the other things they have now to increase horn size. She asked if we were going
to get it mounted. I said no as money was not easy to come by. She then asked, "when do you think I will kill another 12?"
I thought and said, Never. so we drove straight to the taxidermist. That 12 pointer is still hanging on our wall 48 years later.
PS...its the only clean 12 pointer that either one of us have ever killed.

Been on the same place for thirty years. I’ve only seen one “clean” typical main frame 12. We have had other 12’s but they had kickers or splits.

I have hunted Oklahoma, Kansas, and all over the state of Texas and never seen a clean 12 in person. Just a few pictures and a couple of kills.

This is the one that was on our place. He was killed at 6.5 and wasn’t a clean 12 anymore.

I’d say like others it depends a lot on area. They aren’t under every bush but S Tex seems to have the lions share.

These have got me super excited now. I’ve see 3 in a bachelor heard with longer brow tines even that look so similar. One is a 10; but with some kickers, and super tall. All in velvet of course. Just jaw dropping. Thank you the added excitement. No dove shooting because of it now. Just going to make sure I keep the water flowing for them into a trough because the tank/pond really went down this last two weeks. Another month, won’t be much left. Wish I could click my heels together and it was October.