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Texas Is Missing About 70,000,000 Hogs #8815118 03/09/23 02:43 PM
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Apparently, 'scientists' don't have a clue, or Texas hunters and trappers are totally awesome. By their predictions and me just running their numbers, I would say that Texas is missing about 70,000,000 pigs that should be here right now.

For example, the biologists have been saying that Texas had 2 million hogs starting around 2002 with a 18-21% population growth per year, call it 20% for easier math. That is 20% growth over and above hunting pressure, natural diseases, roadkills, etc. That 20% would be compounded annually for this calculation and so by now, we should have over 76 million hogs in Texas, assuming with had 2.0 million at the start in 2002 and a 20% annual growth rate as claimed. Only recently have the 'experts' been saying that they really don't know how many hogs are in Texas. I can tell you this much. The population isn't growing by 20% per year. The latest highest estimates have Texas hogs at no more than 6 million and most folks think it is closer to 3-5 million and some think we are still around 1.5-2.6 million, almost as if the population hasn't grown or grown much. If that is the case, the population isn't growing by 20% per year. If there are years where it grows by that much, then there must be years where it declines by that much because we are missing some 70 million piggies.

Historic count from 2002: "Wilkins said the wild hogs now number more than 2 million statewide."
https://agrilifetoday.tamu.edu/2002/10/04/animals-more-affected-by-drought-when-people-get-involved/

Stated Growth Rate Example:
https://tpwd.texas.gov/huntwild/wild/nuisance/feral_hogs/

The fact of the matter is that these biologists do some population sampling from given environments, taking into account the carrying capacity and size of said environments, and extrapolating the hog population from there. It is pretty hokey if you want to actually determine a correct number. It is a flawed system by which to conduct a census.


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Re: Texas Is Missing About 70,000,000 Hogs [Re: Double Naught Spy] #8815131 03/09/23 02:58 PM
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They're here. They're just all at my place.


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Re: Texas Is Missing About 70,000,000 Hogs [Re: Double Naught Spy] #8815154 03/09/23 03:23 PM
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Huntung should be exceptionally good at your place!


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Re: Texas Is Missing About 70,000,000 Hogs [Re: Double Naught Spy] #8815165 03/09/23 03:32 PM
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The hog population experts are obviously moonlighting on global warming in their off time.

With equal accuracy.

Last edited by syncerus; 03/09/23 03:34 PM. Reason: Accuracy

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Re: Texas Is Missing About 70,000,000 Hogs [Re: Double Naught Spy] #8815415 03/09/23 10:07 PM
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I have a bunch of hogs but, as far as I can tell, their numbers are staying about the same.


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Re: Texas Is Missing About 70,000,000 Hogs [Re: Double Naught Spy] #8815549 03/10/23 02:15 AM
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We’ve seen a decline since 2019 on our place. We put good pressure on them, so I would expect they have just moved somewhere else for the time being.

Re: Texas Is Missing About 70,000,000 Hogs [Re: Double Naught Spy] #8815753 03/10/23 03:00 PM
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Well, I know I removed about 3mm last year alone. Or one, I'm not sure. I lost count. I think the extrapolations are flawed. I would expect that hogs have some biological limiting factors to reproductions the same as other species. Doesn't mean there aren't places with a boatload of them or that they won't over reproduce. But I agree, we're not seeing the numbers we should see if hogs are following the plan. I do wonder how many are trapped and entered into the food system.

I also think the process of introducing hogs so there will be something to hunt is complete. I don't think that is going on anymore. Just speculation. I remember PJ O'Rourke asking someone in Mogadishu why the looting had stopped. His answer "they were finished".


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Re: Texas Is Missing About 70,000,000 Hogs [Re: Double Naught Spy] #8816537 03/11/23 09:32 PM
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Not sure what's going on, but I know that I haven't seen a dozen hogs on my place since the great freeze. And I like it. up


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Re: Texas Is Missing About 70,000,000 Hogs [Re: Double Naught Spy] #8817225 03/13/23 07:51 AM
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I think they don’t have a clue about the hog population. Way more of them than they think they know.

Re: Texas Is Missing About 70,000,000 Hogs [Re: Double Naught Spy] #8817252 03/13/23 11:27 AM
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If you remember the "Hole in the Ozone" that was going to kill us all....all those pigs got sucked into that and plugged it up which would explain why that is not an issue anymore. It's just common sense that when "pigs fly" was created it was about this phenomenon.


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Re: Texas Is Missing About 70,000,000 Hogs [Re: Double Naught Spy] #8817504 03/13/23 09:32 PM
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Hogs are the reason that I don’t allow anyone molesting a coyote on my place. They are on my side.


Without a sense of urgency, nothing ever happens.

Boy, if I say "sic em", you'd better look for something to bite. Sam Shelley, Rancher Muleshoe Texas 1892-1985 RIP
Re: Texas Is Missing About 70,000,000 Hogs [Re: Dave Davidson] #8817618 03/14/23 01:18 AM
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Originally Posted by Dave Davidson
Hogs are the reason that I don’t allow anyone molesting a coyote on my place. They are on my side.

eek2


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Re: Texas Is Missing About 70,000,000 Hogs [Re: Double Naught Spy] #8817620 03/14/23 01:20 AM
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We kind of have a roller coaster pattern with them on our place... They'll make a comeback (usually several different groups with 8-10 adults plus babies), we'll hunt them, and they disappear for about a month, and them or another group moves into the area.... repeat the process.


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Re: Texas Is Missing About 70,000,000 Hogs [Re: Dave Davidson] #8817671 03/14/23 03:05 AM
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Originally Posted by Dave Davidson
Hogs are the reason that I don’t allow anyone molesting a coyote on my place. They are on my side.


A lot of the quail biologists I talk to say leave the yotes alone and kill the racoons, skunks, bobcats, feral cats and pigs.


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Re: Texas Is Missing About 70,000,000 Hogs [Re: jnd59] #8818270 03/15/23 05:02 AM
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Originally Posted by jnd59
Originally Posted by Dave Davidson
Hogs are the reason that I don’t allow anyone molesting a coyote on my place. They are on my side.


A lot of the quail biologists I talk to say leave the yotes alone and kill the racoons, skunks, bobcats, feral cats and pigs.


True enough, but a lot of wannabe quail hunters are deer hunters and so they feel compelled to shoot all the coyotes, not that Texas has anything resembling a shortage of deer.


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Re: Texas Is Missing About 70,000,000 Hogs [Re: Double Naught Spy] #8818567 03/15/23 07:48 PM
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I think this is explained away by the "science" behind the number estimates. It was flawed. The problem is, decisions are and will be made on flawed science. This is just one of a number of examples recently where flawed "science" has created big problems in practical scientific proclamations and when those are wrong or wildly inaccurate, it leads to population distrust in science. I think surveys these days show the least amount of trust in the scientific community in a very long time. Rightfully so, I will say, as a scientist myself.

Junk "science", flawed "science", and politics in "science" have no place in real scientific discovery.


We also have to realize that we humans are not the only factors that affect the environment. The earth is a living vessel, it has existed for trillions of years (at least according to science) and has developed ways to manipulate itself to correct wrongs. Why we as humans can not acknowledge that and let it happen is beyond me. We are probably seeing something happening before our eyes that is simply natural population control. The human aid of that is neglible to what nature has already put in place, though it won't stop us from shooting almost all hogs on sight cheers

Last edited by Texas buckeye; 03/15/23 07:49 PM.
Re: Texas Is Missing About 70,000,000 Hogs [Re: Double Naught Spy] #8818572 03/15/23 08:02 PM
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There are a lot of really bad scientists out there who have no idea what they’re doing. An ego and an opinion does not make one an expert. Intelligence, an open mind, and a true spirit of inquiry are table stakes for real scientists.


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Re: Texas Is Missing About 70,000,000 Hogs [Re: Double Naught Spy] #8818949 03/16/23 02:11 PM
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I do not see any way anyone could properly "estimate" numbers. Impossible, but even if every square mile of Texas was flown in a grid, there would be millions of hogs never seen, even by aerial thermal imaging. It's called canopy and topography. There would be hogs hidden inside both.

I have not had hog sign on my place in three years, and I am glad. 2019 and 2020 the area was getting flown, and rounds were fired.


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Re: Texas Is Missing About 70,000,000 Hogs [Re: syncerus] #8819116 03/16/23 07:14 PM
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Originally Posted by syncerus
There are a lot of really bad scientists out there who have no idea what they’re doing. An ego and an opinion does not make one an expert. Intelligence, an open mind, and a true spirit of inquiry are table stakes for real scientists.


This is so true!

Re: Texas Is Missing About 70,000,000 Hogs [Re: Double Naught Spy] #8819135 03/16/23 08:13 PM
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Plus the recognition and abandonment of bad science is a step toward good science.


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Re: Texas Is Missing About 70,000,000 Hogs [Re: Double Naught Spy] #8819175 03/16/23 09:14 PM
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So, what went wrong with the numbers? Was the original 2M number too high? Are the birth and survival rates significantly lower than estimated? Did the numbers change as the hog count increased (hogs overpopulated some areas to such an extent that predators feasted)? It makes one wonder…


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Re: Texas Is Missing About 70,000,000 Hogs [Re: Double Naught Spy] #8819274 03/16/23 11:43 PM
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Chupacabras....and black panthers.


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Re: Texas Is Missing About 70,000,000 Hogs [Re: Double Naught Spy] #8819353 03/17/23 02:28 AM
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I know neither the question or answer. I know that I have one bunch on my place that is dang near tame. I know where they lay up during the day and I’ve walked up on them. I see their piglets and then no piglets. I figure coyotes are getting the young. That’s why I don’t let anybody molest a coyote on my place.


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Boy, if I say "sic em", you'd better look for something to bite. Sam Shelley, Rancher Muleshoe Texas 1892-1985 RIP
Re: Texas Is Missing About 70,000,000 Hogs [Re: der Teufel] #8819529 03/17/23 02:14 PM
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Originally Posted by der Teufel
So, what went wrong with the numbers? Was the original 2M number too high? Are the birth and survival rates significantly lower than estimated? Did the numbers change as the hog count increased (hogs overpopulated some areas to such an extent that predators feasted)? It makes one wonder…


Also they said we needed to kill 70-80% of the population each year to break even...and we are doing that? I have my doubts.


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Re: Texas Is Missing About 70,000,000 Hogs [Re: Double Naught Spy] #8819544 03/17/23 02:49 PM
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I’ve killed almost 300 hogs in the past 2.5 yrs on my lease. Went from killing 5-10 every trip to 2-3 per trip to 1 per trip to 1 every other trip and now haven’t had a hog on camera for almost a month and haven’t killed a hog in 2 months.

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