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Drought effect on deer reproduction possibly? #8809402 02/27/23 07:47 PM
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Hello everyone. Just wanted to see y’all’s thoughts on this. Out where we hunt, on mld, about 10 does have been killed since about January 10, and even a few really recently. and in theory these should be showing signs of being bred. But 9/10 does have appeared to not have been bred, no milk bags, no “baby sack” (Don’t know technical term). Nothing. We have a really healthy deer population, and I don’t think it’s over run with does to bucks, so could this be drought effect or what? Has anyone else noticed this?

Re: Drought effect on deer reproduction possibly? [Re: The_Whitetail_Kid] #8809723 02/28/23 04:10 AM
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The effect of drought would not affect conception, it would affect the chances of twinning and the offspring surviva, post birth.

Makes me wonder if you guys looked well enough for the uterus, it can look like a bladder and be mostly filled with fluid this time of year. Even once punctured, it can not “show” the fetus until the entire uterus is exposed and the fetal/amniotic sac is found deep in the uterine fluid.

On all the doe i shot this year, every one had twin conceptions. For your place to not have 90% bred, that is insanely low. It either reflects an insanely high doe:buck ratio or more likely just not seeing what you were looking for.

Exit: i specifically look for fetal fawns and measure them so i get a decent idea of the rut timing on my place.

Last edited by Texas buckeye; 02/28/23 04:11 AM.
Re: Drought effect on deer reproduction possibly? [Re: The_Whitetail_Kid] #8809887 02/28/23 04:00 PM
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I agree with TxBuc. Almost all will be bred. It’s a matter of being aborted or fawn killed early on.
The fetus will be very small and most would not know where to look. I don’t claim to be an expert though so maybe others will chime in.


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Keep your gratitude higher than your expectations. RWH
Re: Drought effect on deer reproduction possibly? [Re: The_Whitetail_Kid] #8809952 02/28/23 06:59 PM
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All of our doe were bred as well

Re: Drought effect on deer reproduction possibly? [Re: The_Whitetail_Kid] #8809959 02/28/23 07:06 PM
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Not sure how you guys can say "all our doe were bred"? Anyway, I do know that mother nature has a way of taking care of feast or famine range conditions, and the condition of the available does. We had terrible fawn production and survival this past year, and this year is shaping up to be much the same. As a matter of fact, it's been down the better part of the last 10 years.

Re: Drought effect on deer reproduction possibly? [Re: Jgraider] #8809998 02/28/23 08:06 PM
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Originally Posted by Jgraider
Not sure how you guys can say "all our doe were bred"? Anyway, I do know that mother nature has a way of taking care of feast or famine range conditions, and the condition of the available does. We had terrible fawn production and survival this past year, and this year is shaping up to be much the same. As a matter of fact, it's been down the better part of the last 10 years.


Texas Buckeye walked through it pretty well. All of the doe we shot post rut showed clear signs of being bred.

Re: Drought effect on deer reproduction possibly? [Re: The_Whitetail_Kid] #8810024 02/28/23 08:35 PM
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When I have a low fawn count, generally, it is the age factor that is the culprit. By this, I mean when a lot of hunters decide to take a doe, we most of the time take a mature doe. Well, a mature doe will generally have twins where something less than mature doe will have less than 1 for a factor. The doe herd generally averages a factor of or around .7-.8 for a herd number. When I see the herd have less than normal amount of fawn production it generally is due to a younger average age group herd that even might not have any mature does at all.
So, as the mature age bracket draws down then the up coming group may still be less than mature causing fawn numbers to be low again. Unless you count the fawns with a camera you may not have a handle on how many fawns you really have. It is almost impossible to actually know if you have less than normal fawn numbers if you don't have an accurate count.
The process for determining fawns by % or fraction of the doe herd will only give you about a third of the actual number...generally speaking is my experiences.
The process to expand your fawns is not to take mature does but the younger ones as young as 1 1/2 .
I have been counting deer for almost 15 years and have found that fawn numbers do follow the amount of rain we get in the month of April only...but not as much as the age groups. The age groups are monumental.

Re: Drought effect on deer reproduction possibly? [Re: The_Whitetail_Kid] #8810081 02/28/23 10:03 PM
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We were seeing fawns with spots the beginning of November on our place so those mama doe had to be bred way past this time of year....

Re: Drought effect on deer reproduction possibly? [Re: fishbait] #8810090 02/28/23 10:11 PM
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Originally Posted by fishbait
When I have a low fawn count, generally, it is the age factor that is the culprit. By this, I mean when a lot of hunters decide to take a doe, we most of the time take a mature doe. Well, a mature doe will generally have twins where something less than mature doe will have less than 1 for a factor. The doe herd generally averages a factor of or around .7-.8 for a herd number. When I see the herd have less than normal amount of fawn production it generally is due to a younger average age group herd that even might not have any mature does at all.
So, as the mature age bracket draws down then the up coming group may still be less than mature causing fawn numbers to be low again. Unless you count the fawns with a camera you may not have a handle on how many fawns you really have. It is almost impossible to actually know if you have less than normal fawn numbers if you don't have an accurate count.
The process for determining fawns by % or fraction of the doe herd will only give you about a third of the actual number...generally speaking is my experiences.
The process to expand your fawns is not to take mature does but the younger ones as young as 1 1/2 .
I have been counting deer for almost 15 years and have found that fawn numbers do follow the amount of rain we get in the month of April only...but not as much as the age groups. The age groups are monumental.



Interesting. Age groups of does are eventually affected by the previous years' fawn crops though, right?

Re: Drought effect on deer reproduction possibly? [Re: The_Whitetail_Kid] #8810097 02/28/23 10:29 PM
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I am guessing that doe form certain groups and stick to there groups . One weekend during hunting season I had 10 on my feeder the other hunter had around 6 on his . I always figured we had around 16 to 20 doe running on and off our property to the North. While watching my doe I noticed about 30 in the wheat field . I have never seen 30 on my feeder at one time . Is there a certain reason they stay in smaller groups most of the time?

Re: Drought effect on deer reproduction possibly? [Re: Bowhunter 64] #8810104 02/28/23 10:41 PM
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Originally Posted by Bowhunter 64
I am guessing that doe form certain groups and stick to there groups . One weekend during hunting season I had 10 on my feeder the other hunter had around 6 on his . I always figured we had around 16 to 20 doe running on and off our property to the North. While watching my doe I noticed about 30 in the wheat field . I have never seen 30 on my feeder at one time . Is there a certain reason they stay in smaller groups most of the time?

Im not sure what bow64s comment has to do with the thread but ill try to address it.
Deer are "social" and I have noticed does usually will hang out with small groups of a handful or so. I assume they are related. There is also a certain amount of "too many chiefs" that keep more than one dominant type doe to hang out with another dominant one.
The reasons these small groups hang out together is to share food or cover. A feeder only throws enough food to accommodate a limited number of deer. A wheat field or large food source would accommodate a larger number of deer so more deer will be in the field without really being "together". The same thing with a long spread on road corn. You will have deer spread out down the road when they would not normally be in tight quarters with each other. All thats just what Ive gathered from observing over the years along with research.


At some point in life its time to quit chasing the pot of gold and just enjoy the rainbow. FR
Keep your gratitude higher than your expectations. RWH
Re: Drought effect on deer reproduction possibly? [Re: Jgraider] #8810113 02/28/23 10:54 PM
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Originally Posted by Jgraider
Not sure how you guys can say "all our doe were bred"? Anyway, I do know that mother nature has a way of taking care of feast or famine range conditions, and the condition of the available does. We had terrible fawn production and survival this past year, and this year is shaping up to be much the same. As a matter of fact, it's been down the better part of the last 10 years.

Jgraider, I agree nature has a way of dealing with feast or famine type range conditions. IMO, that doesnt much play into the percentage of does that get topped by bucks. I would never say that ALL does are "bred" but I assume that "almost all" get bred. Natures control as based on range conditions and herd health would come in AFTER conception. Certainly range conditions and herd health would account for how many fawn die or are predated (word?) as well as the number of fetus being aborted.
Another way to say it would be that range conditions have a huge impact on fawn recruitment into the next years yearling age class but I dont believe it much, if any, changes the % of does that are bred. I do not claim to know so Im all ears for others to chime in.
edit... Exception would be if the doe/buck ratio is so severely skewed that the bucks simply cant get around to all the does. That is normally not the case.

Last edited by freerange; 02/28/23 10:57 PM.

At some point in life its time to quit chasing the pot of gold and just enjoy the rainbow. FR
Keep your gratitude higher than your expectations. RWH
Re: Drought effect on deer reproduction possibly? [Re: The_Whitetail_Kid] #8810136 02/28/23 11:21 PM
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FR, that is correct. nature takes care of things, and you will see the effects from drought in next years fawn recruitment, but this time of year all doe should be bred or most of them bred, but that number should never EVER be 10% or less. That is not natural. A doe will cycle until it is bred/conception takes place. If there are not enough bucks in an area to breed with 90% of the does, that would mean a doe:buck ratio of less than 30:1....by now a doe should have gone thru 3 or more cycles. Assuming a buck tends and breeds just one doe per cycle (pretty solid in science there) then three cycles would lead to 3 out of 30 doe bred or 10% roughly. That kind of ratio is just unheard of and not realistic.

So it gets back to, how hard did you look and did you look in the right places?

I know where to look and found 100% of my doe bred this year. I look every year and see the same thing. Every doe I shoot has twin conceptions (science says 10-30% of those are not from the same sire). I know fawn recruitment at my place is not that high, maybe 30-50% tops. That is where drought will show its face. Will those fawns be born sickly and unable to handle a cold wet day? Too weak to get away from predation? Or will mom not make enough milk for two fawns? This is the effect of drought. Not conception rates.

Re: Drought effect on deer reproduction possibly? [Re: Jgraider] #8810402 03/01/23 10:46 AM
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I could write two chapters on this question ...so, to put in a few words...yes, you do have back fill from the previous year..however the harvest can and does use up not only the last group but also down to the other groups. Therefore their will be less mature doe that will put three does for each harvested mature doe on next years pasture...thus having less fawns. This process will continue using up parts or all of a group until all the groups will have what is left. Now you may have an average doe age of 2.4 instead of 2.9 The difference ...the does left will only put out less than 1 fawn. So now you could have only 1. 7 does on next years pastures. There fore less fawns.

Thanks for your interest and I hope this helps

Re: Drought effect on deer reproduction possibly? [Re: The_Whitetail_Kid] #8810521 03/01/23 02:45 PM
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Fishbait, you are using some terms many are not familiar with, and I can only guess what they mean....when you say backfill, are you referring to the doe harvested from years subsequent to bad drought being in an older age class (due to drought effect in drop in the fawn group?) and the effort to reduce does actually takes away from the age classes of the doe as well? And consequently because older doe are more likely to twin, then the subsequent fawn recruitment goes down due to bad drought?

I understand what you are saying about that concept reducing doe numbers overall, but doesn't the herd continue to age through all this and thus increase the chances of twinning and getting back to natural carrying capacity when nutrition returns to some normal level (non-drought years)

Re: Drought effect on deer reproduction possibly? [Re: The_Whitetail_Kid] #8810589 03/01/23 04:09 PM
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When fishbait posts I think about the guy in The Sting that would ask, "you follow?". My answer is, no.

Last edited by freerange; 03/01/23 04:09 PM.

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Re: Drought effect on deer reproduction possibly? [Re: The_Whitetail_Kid] #8810662 03/01/23 06:09 PM
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Well thanks for the feed back...the point I was making when we have low fawn numbers is generally because the lack of mature does for whatever reason.

LOL...freerange ...I feel the same way sometimes.
Texas Buck...You are right in what you are saying...however,, when we harvest does ..most effected are mature does, with my experience ..thus, next year with less mature does will have less fawns.
The factor for a young doe having a fawn is almost nothing.
The herd average age may not continue to increase after loosing mature does, all depending on how many are taken. Don't forget, fawns counted by ratios will reflect only about 30% of the actual number of fawns on the pasture.

Re: Drought effect on deer reproduction possibly? [Re: The_Whitetail_Kid] #8810672 03/01/23 06:44 PM
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Fishbait, I am not a wildlife biologist nor am I a ranch manager with many years of experience, but I do understand biology and social animal behaviors some. I do not understand your last statement, that fawns counted by ratios will only be about 30% of the actual number.

Are you talking about fawns counted when doing ratio surveys (i.e. night time scouting, helicopter, etc) ?

Also, in your experience or education, at what age does a adult doe start becoming a productive member of society?

I see some doe that appear all of 2yo with twins while older doe don't have any. I know doe ages can be deceiving on appearances, but curious if there is any good data out there on age of doe and productivity. It seems I read recently where the average buck is likely to only sire (in its lifetime) one buck and one doe that survive. That is piddly in my mind, but hard to argue with scientific data sometimes (not all the time)

Re: Drought effect on deer reproduction possibly? [Re: The_Whitetail_Kid] #8810733 03/01/23 08:43 PM
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Texas buck.....Thanks tex,,..The ratio that I used was using cameras capturing total bucks and total does and to include the number of fawns. Many years ago. I went through as explained to me and I was glad to give the info to P&W. Later on I decided to count each fawn using pictures of both sides. After many years I learned a lot about census and during that time found that using the math to calculate total fawn ratios was no where close to being accurate. By using cameras I did learn much more info..some useful some not so useful. I have learned how to manage deer and was successful. I can now predict future fawns and herd make up. Many other useful facts that I am proud to use. Some things I am willing to share with this forum members that want new info that I have acquired from time to time. I don't mean to disagree with no one just willing to share my facts as I know them and I am still trying to learn more. I recommend it for everyone. I don't say anything that I can't prove.
I have spent thousands of hours counting deer....and still learning. Don;t forget ..lots of money also. Learning is not cheap but very gratifying and a good feeling of accomplishments.

Re: Drought effect on deer reproduction possibly? [Re: The_Whitetail_Kid] #8810749 03/01/23 09:05 PM
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I forgot to answer you Tex.....When does an adult doe become productive? Maybe this info will help you understand some about the doe family...
When I count deer the first thing I do is set up my "Fawning Areas". Here a pregnant doe comes to eat every day with family members(generally last years fawn and one other and along with a few other distant members). Here in the fawning area she will have her first fawn...and later join the group. This is production at its best. Does will began to have fawns in April to as late as October...even maybe one in November.
I can't answer how many does a buck will service...I'm like you I would have to read up on that....lol Sounds interesting though.
thanks again

Re: Drought effect on deer reproduction possibly? [Re: The_Whitetail_Kid] #8810788 03/01/23 09:52 PM
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I think there must be some mis diagnosis going on. Been a while but read in the past that even in areas with incredibly high doe to buck rations that it’s almost 100% still get bred. Seems poor range conditions would affect what survived not what was conceived.


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Re: Drought effect on deer reproduction possibly? [Re: redchevy] #8810799 03/01/23 10:02 PM
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Originally Posted by redchevy
I think there must be some mis diagnosis going on. Been a while but read in the past that even in areas with incredibly high doe to buck rations that it’s almost 100% still get bred. Seems poor range conditions would affect what survived not what was conceived.

^^^Others always say things with less words than me. To me, Redchevy answered the OP question(if others havent.)


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Keep your gratitude higher than your expectations. RWH
Re: Drought effect on deer reproduction possibly? [Re: fishbait] #8810822 03/01/23 10:34 PM
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Originally Posted by fishbait
I forgot to answer you Tex.....When does an adult doe become productive? Maybe this info will help you understand some about the doe family...
When I count deer the first thing I do is set up my "Fawning Areas". Here a pregnant doe comes to eat every day with family members(generally last years fawn and one other and along with a few other distant members). Here in the fawning area she will have her first fawn...and later join the group. This is production at its best. Does will began to have fawns in April to as late as October...even maybe one in November.
I can't answer how many does a buck will service...I'm like you I would have to read up on that....lol Sounds interesting though.
thanks again


I understand that and see that almost every sit during deer season, but the question remains, you stated younger doe have less to no fawn recruitment...at what point does a doe "count" toward recruitment of fawns? I see some that have twins, some singles, and some none. It seems to me at my place the age levels are across the spectrum.

And the question of how many doe a buck will breed (in a free range setting) in a given year has been studied and most studies will show average of one, in a normal setting (some super breeders exist, and the max in the study I believe was 11 for one buck one year, but on average it was one or two) Obviously there can be more if ratios are way off. But the study I referenced about the average number of bucks a buck will have through its life stated just one. Most bucks simply replace themselves. Surely more bucks are conceived, but not many make it through the initial year or two to become a member of society. And the same was with doe offspring, it was pretty much one. So over the course of life, an average buck will spawn two offspring....that isn't much.

Yet, I see fawn recruitment way out of league with those numbers, so the numbers quoted above are averages across the country and there will be regionalized differences for sure.

Just curious at what age you think a doe becomes productive and for how long?

Re: Drought effect on deer reproduction possibly? [Re: The_Whitetail_Kid] #8810833 03/01/23 10:57 PM
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Thanks for the replies everyone. Sounds like we’re just missing them. We’ve always been able to pick them off in past year so not seeing what we’re expecting is why I was wondering.

Re: Drought effect on deer reproduction possibly? [Re: The_Whitetail_Kid] #8810840 03/01/23 11:10 PM
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Tex...What I can tell you is the ratio for each age group. On my lease I had 30 hunters surrounding it causing me a population problem. So that caused me to learn more just for defense. So, to address production..starting at 4 1/2 years of age begins to pay for itself as the production factor for them is 2.12 times for each one and is considered your first mature aged doe. For your 51/2, 61/2 year olds the factor is approx. 2.15. I have had does have fawns even up to and some after 61/2 yrs of age..after that,,,they are usually harvested.
For me...I like a deer density from 8 to 12 acres per deer. Your buck to doe ratio is self leveling most of the time around 1.2 doe to buck ratio. I don't harvest spikes or bucks less than 13 inches as that is the law for us.
So, I would say does will have fawns starting with somewhat some consistency at 31/2 with a factor of 0.8 average fawns per year.

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