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Questions about today's land market #8570646 04/03/22 03:08 PM
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woods and plainsman Offline OP
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First understand I know there is no crystal ball for this question but asking anyway cause I'm certain I stand to learn something.
I'm looking to the opinions of some in this forum whether it be brokers, land realtors, experienced purchaser, farmers, or just plain land owner enthusiasts for an understanding of the current land market.
Prices (as you know) are sky high. I need 50-100 acres remote. I might have to settle for 30 but trying not to go there. Counties we've considered are Dewitt, Goliad, maybe north Victoria, Lee, Karnes.
With various factors clouding the process such as inflation, raising interest rates, possible recession with inverse rates, foreign investors and I'm sure there's more - is this a good or bad time to buy? Does anyone see better prices on the horizon? Or is it this way for the next 2-3 years and we should just move forward? I'm getting older and prefer to move now, candle is burning.
Do the current rising rates provide any leverage for bidding less than asking price? Has anyone offered less and seller agreed in today's market?
For example found a nice looking piece Hallettsville area ~80 acres but for (ouch) 650,000 but it looks like its been for sale a few months. I could offer 550 (laughs) but is this a futile thought?

Re: Questions about today's land market [Re: woods and plainsman] #8570707 04/03/22 04:18 PM
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Never ever worry about insulting a person with your bid. Offer only what it is worth to you.
One never knows what might happen.


Cabin rental in Pagosa Springs, Co.
Sleeps 10, If interested please PM me.
Re: Questions about today's land market [Re: woods and plainsman] #8570724 04/03/22 04:31 PM
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I would not buy now for investment purposes. RE is counter cyclical. Buy when nobody wants it and sell when everybody and his dog wants in. If you're buying to make yourself happy then just figure out your budget and make it happen. Try to keep emotion out of your purchase as best you can.

Re: Questions about today's land market [Re: woods and plainsman] #8570823 04/03/22 07:18 PM
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If you want recreational land for your pleasure,, ( and you can afford it ) , buy it now. The entire WESTERN U.S. is running out of water --------- soon they will begin to come here. The normal pricing cycle no longer applies. Make a low bid,,, no one is insulted -------- but accepting low bids is almost a thing of the past. If Joe bids low, the land owner assumes ( probably correctly) that Bill will come behind him with a full price offer.

Re: Questions about today's land market [Re: woods and plainsman] #8570827 04/03/22 07:20 PM
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I’ve been selling land for 14 years, so I have a some idea and sell in those counties you mentioned.

Here is my opinion on it:

I doubt prices are going to drop. Too many outside influences that we didn’t have in the busts of the 90’s and in 2008. Prices may plateau but I doubt you are going to see them soften. That area is within a reasonable driving distance not only from Houston but now Austin with the new road they put in so it’s getting traffic from both metro area…people are flush with cash and it’s still cheap to borrow money making demand high.

Buy what you can afford and offer what you think a place is worth, but it’s become commonplace for sellers to not negotiate much if at all. If you would like to talk further you can call me at 210-421-8181



For it is not the quarry that we truly seek, but the adventure.
Re: Questions about today's land market [Re: woods and plainsman] #8571189 04/04/22 03:33 AM
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woods and plainsman Offline OP
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thanks for all the replies. It helps put things in perspective.
I remember txtrophy85 from other posts, I'll give you a call.

Re: Questions about today's land market [Re: woods and plainsman] #8571223 04/04/22 10:37 AM
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Seems everyone is selling now though. Should allow a competitive offer at what you want. I feel there is only so much saturation. Prices won't plummet but they should allow some negotiation. They might plauteu for several years since everyone wants $10k an acre when it was half that 2 years ago. There are so many tiny acreages 10 acres or less for sale now it is nuts. The land development companies are going bonkers as well has individuals breaking up their land.

Re: Questions about today's land market [Re: woods and plainsman] #8571492 04/04/22 05:28 PM
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they don't make more land

Californians are loaded with cash and love their slices of Texas

buy what you can afford now and profit later

Re: Questions about today's land market [Re: woods and plainsman] #8571592 04/04/22 08:10 PM
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I don’t think prices will go down for rural land. Interest rates are climbing but still reasonable.
With inflation getting out of hand a lot of people buy land as a hedge against inflation.
Now a recession would slow things down a bit.

Re: Questions about today's land market [Re: woods and plainsman] #8571654 04/04/22 09:28 PM
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Agreed with what's been shared. Given population dynamic (massive influx to TX), rate of retirees, recent market returns (lots of gains and cheap money out there), and COVID (everybody wants a getway) I don't see prices falling. I believe they will plateau, but I don't see them coming down. Interest rates on the other hand certainly will rise. This does change what you can buy as a percentage point can have a big impact on monthly payment assuming you finance a portion.

As to price, offering $550K on a $650K asking is totally reasonable. It's been a bit since I looked up the stats, but when we bought in 2019 rural land on average went for 82% of asking. I'm sure that's crept up recently but I'd not be shy at all about sending a lower serious offer.

We bought our place in 2019 and I thought the price I paid per acre was nuts. It's now nearly 2X that and my only regret is that I did not buy more (especially after re-financing in 2020).


Feeders and Fiberglass Blinds
Re: Questions about today's land market [Re: woods and plainsman] #8572052 04/05/22 02:19 PM
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Every investment is subject to cycling and you have to consider your timing, goals and opportunities. I’m a long term real estate investor. It’s paid off for me but that poor sucker in California who bought land that burnt is hosed. It’s not a sure thing. I recall some people who bought ranchettes just outside of town. A slaughter house moved in next door. They lost everything.

Buying recreational property has paid off for a lot of people but you need to get something you can enjoy and that other people will enjoy.

Also consider tax ramifications. Texas offers a tax break for rural property. One is for grazing of livestock. The other is for wildlife. Re wildlife the land owner can do about 3 to 5 things to reduce tax liability. I damn sure pay attention to these and have to submit a document every year.

It’s not without risk. I know of a shooting range that opened just outside of town. The neighbors have to listen to the shots all week but mostly on Saturday.

I don’t regret buying and selling the lands but I do regret getting too damn old to do it any more.


Without a sense of urgency, nothing ever happens.

Boy, if I say "sic em", you'd better look for something to bite. Sam Shelley, Rancher Muleshoe Texas 1892-1985 RIP
Re: Questions about today's land market [Re: woods and plainsman] #8572743 04/06/22 01:59 PM
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"Counties we've considered are Dewitt, Goliad, maybe north Victoria, Lee, Karnes."

I really, really like where you are looking and especially Dewitt and Goliad areas.

Re: Questions about today's land market [Re: txtrophy85] #8572777 04/06/22 02:37 PM
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Originally Posted by txtrophy85
I’ve been selling land for 14 years, so I have a some idea and sell in those counties you mentioned.

Here is my opinion on it:

I doubt prices are going to drop. Too many outside influences that we didn’t have in the busts of the 90’s and in 2008. Prices may plateau but I doubt you are going to see them soften. That area is within a reasonable driving distance not only from Houston but now Austin with the new road they put in so it’s getting traffic from both metro area…people are flush with cash and it’s still cheap to borrow money making demand high.

Buy what you can afford and offer what you think a place is worth, but it’s become commonplace for sellers to not negotiate much if at all. If you would like to talk further you can call me at 210-421-8181



I feel the OP's pain when thinking about jumping into a land purchase right now; we are looking as well - don't worry we aren't competing with you as we aren't fishing/looking in your 'regional' pond/market.

Also agree with the above; especially in the fact we may be experiencing a plateau or bench for pricing in the near term. Another factor to consider for the price stabilization is increased cost to get to said rural property for the weekender or hobby-farmer - I have two places and it will cost me $75-$100 more per trip just to get to them. There is also the problem of lack of supply of tracts. That will help keep values shored up for stability as well. Certainly some stabilization in land prices is being reported from their rocket-like climb, but - pending some unforeseen cataclysmic event (everyone expected COVID to crater EVERYTHING and land prices shot up during that time) - a drop in prices does not seem likely any time soon.

To the OP - I would offer what you are comfortable with and see if they will come to the table at your offer, but keep in mind $650,000 is not a daunting purchase by California terms. There are mountains of cash sitting out there waiting on the 'right' deal.

Re: Questions about today's land market [Re: woods and plainsman] #8576568 04/12/22 05:38 AM
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I live in east Victoria County and for 25 years had a lease on the west side of the county near the Goliad County line. Land in Victoria County has gotten very expensive (8000 to 10,000 per acre) as has land in Dewitt County. You might consider Lavaca County which borders those two and seems to have land a few thousand an acre cheaper. Goliad County is also a good place to look, probably a little less per acre than Victoria and Dewitt.

Re: Questions about today's land market [Re: HuntnFly67] #8576725 04/12/22 02:26 PM
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Originally Posted by HuntnFly67


To the OP - I would offer what you are comfortable with and see if they will come to the table at your offer, but keep in mind $650,000 is not a daunting purchase by California terms. There are mountains of cash sitting out there waiting on the 'right' deal.



I'll address this common conception about "California buyers", based on my experience. I am constantly hearing from people about "all the people from California" buying up all the land. This may be true in metro areas and the immediately surrounding suburbs, but this has not been my experience when dealing with rural lands. To this day, I have sold more land to people from Louisiana than I have people from California.

Truth is, people have made alot of money in the past 5 years, either in business, thru stock investments, selling off other property and 1031'ing into rural land, etc. The market is hot, but its not being cornered by people from California, its by our Texan neighbors and private equity groups buying investment land.


For it is not the quarry that we truly seek, but the adventure.
Re: Questions about today's land market [Re: woods and plainsman] #8580168 04/17/22 07:19 PM
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Call me to discuss. An offer is an offer and Sellers are happy to receive them. I can put together any comps for you too.


Brandon Azuelo - Land Specialist/Sales Agent in Texas & Oklahoma
No Fences Land Company
3500 Highway 121
Bedford, TX 76021
Cell: 972.800.7773
Email: brandona@nofencesland.com
Web: http://www.nofencesland.com/
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