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Straight Talk About 9000 Available O&G Leases #8550988 03/08/22 03:35 PM
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OK, what is the truth regarding oil and gas leases versus current production levels? I want to hear from you O&G folks what the real deal is? I keep hearing:
1. We are no longer energy independent, where in the last presidential term we were an energy exporter.
2. I do not feel that demand has gone up in the US in one year to justify the price/barrel of oil (right now) $128.
3. The White House press secretary claims there are 9000 leases unused.
4. ?? What question should I also be asking?

If my assumptions above are correct, then WHY IS OUR ENERGY PRICES SOARING? This is killing us, some more than others. Can someone that knows explain it to me like you would to a 5-year-old? NONE OF THIS makes common sense. If I'm hearing right, there shouldn't be a difference in current production from the last administration time period versus the current one. If this is correct, then what is really going on?

I want to keep this as apolitical as possible to keep this out of the bunker. The more that can read this, the better the understanding for all of us.


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Re: Straight Talk About 9000 Available O&G Leases [Re: decook] #8550995 03/08/22 03:41 PM
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Maybe those 9000 unused leases are worthless and non productive parcels



Re: Straight Talk About 9000 Available O&G Leases [Re: 68rustbucket] #8550996 03/08/22 03:43 PM
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Originally Posted by 68rustbucket
Maybe those 9000 unused leases are worthless and non productive parcels

That's part of what I'm asking of the THF expertise. Good start.


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Re: Straight Talk About 9000 Available O&G Leases [Re: 68rustbucket] #8551000 03/08/22 03:46 PM
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Originally Posted by 68rustbucket
Maybe those 9000 unused leases are worthless and non productive parcels

More than likely they are productive, but do they project a high enough production rate to be profitable long term. Might be able to make money at $120 per barrel, but at one point prices will normalize and then you've sunk a lot of money into a field that no longer pays for itself.


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Re: Straight Talk About 9000 Available O&G Leases [Re: decook] #8551016 03/08/22 03:55 PM
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Demand has definitely increased compared to during COVID. More people driving, more people flying, etc.

Re: Straight Talk About 9000 Available O&G Leases [Re: decook] #8551017 03/08/22 03:55 PM
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Energy soaring has ABSOLUTELTY zero to do with US Oil & Gas production or producers.

It has 1,000,000% to do with extremely hostile policy from the Biden Admin and wallstreet speculation. Period. End of story.

They are trying to scapegoat the industry (as usual).

The majority of US production is profitable in the $50-65/bo range. A lot of Texas stuff even less.

Ask Biden why they won't re-open federal leases? (NM, WY, CO, and the Dakotas mainly). Politicians in DC have FLAT OUT made it clear that they will not do that - go buy an electric vehicle they say. They're prepared to pay $15-20 per gallon to "show Putin our resolve"....WHAT?

This is way way bigger than "Russia Russia Russia....." ...honestly it has very little to do with Russia - Russia is just the cover or excuse. This is a push to destroy the middle class by and through economic hostility to our own people.

The US was energy independent as little as two years ago. The day Biden took office he started signing EOs to end that.

I am in the O&G industry.

Last edited by Cochise; 03/08/22 03:58 PM.
Re: Straight Talk About 9000 Available O&G Leases [Re: decook] #8551021 03/08/22 03:58 PM
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I sure don’t know but it was my assumption that they’re not economically viable as stated above.

Re: Straight Talk About 9000 Available O&G Leases [Re: decook] #8551025 03/08/22 03:59 PM
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Crude oil inventories are down 14%, over 71M/bbls less than last year, in spite of.....
Crude production up over 16% to 11.6M/bbls per day
Refineries have increased production drastically, up over 55%
Demand for gasoline up 7%, Diesel 17%
We have a war going on involving one of the world's largest energy providers. Wall St sees that as as potential supply disruption.

This in addition to what Cochise posted in which I'm in 100% agreement

Re: Straight Talk About 9000 Available O&G Leases [Re: decook] #8551026 03/08/22 04:00 PM
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I know what... let's empty out the reserves......


Do not forget to entertain strangers, For by so doing some have unwittingly entertained angels
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Re: Straight Talk About 9000 Available O&G Leases [Re: TCM3] #8551035 03/08/22 04:08 PM
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Originally Posted by TCM3
I know what... let's empty out the reserves......

No way if you're talking about the Strategic Oil Reserves. Wouldn't make a bit of difference, then refilling them would cost Billions. Trump filled them to the top when it was cheap. Plus they are there for war time use.


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Re: Straight Talk About 9000 Available O&G Leases [Re: Jimbo1] #8551038 03/08/22 04:11 PM
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Originally Posted by Jimbo1
Originally Posted by TCM3
I know what... let's empty out the reserves......

No way if you're talking about the Strategic Oil Reserves. Wouldn't make a bit of difference, then refilling them would cost Billions. Trump filled them to the top when it was cheap. Plus they are there for war time use.


That’s the answers the current administration keeps coming up with

Re: Straight Talk About 9000 Available O&G Leases [Re: decook] #8551045 03/08/22 04:14 PM
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Its all about cost of extraction. Offshore is the cheapest cost per gal. to extract.
The government can control flow by allowing imports and unnecessary compliance regulations on domestic.
It's pretty simple really, The private sector will slow flow to take advantage of current and future pricing in relation to their production costs. Currently number one thing to do to increase flow lower production costs, every business world off acceptable margin

Now second part when did Biden stop federal land/water production? when was it reversed? How long does it take to actually start producing oil once a lease is signed? Well over a year.

Essentially Biden purposely creates a backlog on federal leases and was trying to subsidize the lose of production with outside oil. Russia oil is a perfect example. Russia oil in use exploded under Biden. But its really nothing more then blood money.

Long story short Biden created no less then a two year delay in any new extraction on federal land. And that's assuming producers want to deal with his unneeded methane mandates





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Re: Straight Talk About 9000 Available O&G Leases [Re: Jgraider] #8551054 03/08/22 04:18 PM
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Originally Posted by Jgraider

Crude oil inventories are down 14%, over 71M/bbls less than last year, in spite of.....
Crude production up over 16% to 11.6M/bbls per day
Refineries have increased production drastically, up over 55%
Demand for gasoline up 7%, Diesel 17%
We have a war going on involving one of the world's largest energy providers. Wall St sees that as as potential supply disruption.

This in addition to what Cochise posted in which I'm in 100% agreement


What has made the inventory go down below energy independence level? Were there any current leases that were pulled away since the beginning of last year? Not to my knowledge, so something still isn't adding up for me. Worst case, we should be able to maintain instead of going under like we're doing. The prior administration predicted it, but not why.


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Re: Straight Talk About 9000 Available O&G Leases [Re: decook] #8551056 03/08/22 04:20 PM
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The major oil companies, the real power brokers like the current price oil.


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Re: Straight Talk About 9000 Available O&G Leases [Re: ducknbass] #8551060 03/08/22 04:22 PM
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Originally Posted by ducknbass
Originally Posted by Jimbo1
Originally Posted by TCM3
I know what... let's empty out the reserves......

No way if you're talking about the Strategic Oil Reserves. Wouldn't make a bit of difference, then refilling them would cost Billions. Trump filled them to the top when it was cheap. Plus they are there for war time use.


That’s the answers the current administration keeps coming up with

Not really. Biden released 30 million bbl to us and 30 million bbl to others.


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Re: Straight Talk About 9000 Available O&G Leases [Re: BOBO the Clown] #8551062 03/08/22 04:23 PM
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Originally Posted by BOBO the Clown
Its all about cost of extraction. Offshore is the cheapest cost per gal. to extract.
The government can control flow by allowing imports and unnecessary compliance regulations on domestic.
It's pretty simple really, The private sector will slow flow to take advantage of current and future pricing in relation to their production costs. Currently number one thing to do to increase flow lower production costs, every business world off acceptable margin

Now second part when did Biden stop federal land/water production? when was it reversed? How long does it take to actually start producing oil once a lease is signed? Well over a year.

Essentially Biden purposely creates a backlog on federal leases and was trying to subsidize the lose of production with outside oil. Russia oil is a perfect example. Russia oil in use exploded under Biden. But its really nothing more then blood money.

Long story short Biden created no less then a two year delay in any new extraction on federal land. And that's assuming producers want to deal with his unneeded methane mandates





I see that BOBO, that is easy to understand. What I don't get is exactly what happened to cause the price to explode way beyond what I think it should be (pre covid). It's like a reactor got too cold, and the operator pulled all the control rods out, and now it is melting down and no one seems concerned to push the rods back in.


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Re: Straight Talk About 9000 Available O&G Leases [Re: TCM3] #8551064 03/08/22 04:24 PM
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Originally Posted by TCM3
I know what... let's empty out the reserves......


No, bad idea. Let's just unhead production, let's become energy independent again. As soon as we do OPEC will turn up supply to try to get oil prices below our profitably margins causing us to slow production. If our production costs are low enough, There will be a price settling that works out. We stay independent and oil field stays employees but the pump doesn't impeed on discretionary income


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Re: Straight Talk About 9000 Available O&G Leases [Re: decook] #8551067 03/08/22 04:26 PM
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Originally Posted by decook
Originally Posted by BOBO the Clown
Its all about cost of extraction. Offshore is the cheapest cost per gal. to extract.
The government can control flow by allowing imports and unnecessary compliance regulations on domestic.
It's pretty simple really, The private sector will slow flow to take advantage of current and future pricing in relation to their production costs. Currently number one thing to do to increase flow lower production costs, every business world off acceptable margin

Now second part when did Biden stop federal land/water production? when was it reversed? How long does it take to actually start producing oil once a lease is signed? Well over a year.

Essentially Biden purposely creates a backlog on federal leases and was trying to subsidize the lose of production with outside oil. Russia oil is a perfect example. Russia oil in use exploded under Biden. But its really nothing more then blood money.

Long story short Biden created no less then a two year delay in any new extraction on federal land. And that's assuming producers want to deal with his unneeded methane mandates





I see that BOBO, that is easy to understand. What I don't get is exactly what happened to cause the price to explode way beyond what I think it should be (pre covid). It's like a reactor got too cold, and the operator pulled all the control rods out, and now it is melting down and no one seems concerned to push the rods back in.


Not enough production to offset Or lower speculation quickly


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Re: Straight Talk About 9000 Available O&G Leases [Re: BOBO the Clown] #8551074 03/08/22 04:29 PM
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Originally Posted by BOBO the Clown
Originally Posted by TCM3
I know what... let's empty out the reserves......


No, bad idea. Let's just unhead production, let's become energy independent again. As soon as we do OPEC will turn up supply to try to get oil prices below our profitably margins causing us to slow production. If our production costs are low enough, There will be a price settling that works out. We stay independent and oil field stays employees but the pump doesn't impeed on discretionary income

sarcasm intended.


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Re: Straight Talk About 9000 Available O&G Leases [Re: TCM3] #8551080 03/08/22 04:33 PM
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Originally Posted by TCM3
Originally Posted by BOBO the Clown
Originally Posted by TCM3
I know what... let's empty out the reserves......


No, bad idea. Let's just unhead production, let's become energy independent again. As soon as we do OPEC will turn up supply to try to get oil prices below our profitably margins causing us to slow production. If our production costs are low enough, There will be a price settling that works out. We stay independent and oil field stays employees but the pump doesn't impeed on discretionary income

sarcasm intended.



After I replied it hit me. I'm slow today


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Re: Straight Talk About 9000 Available O&G Leases [Re: decook] #8551083 03/08/22 04:36 PM
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"I see that BOBO, that is easy to understand. What I don't get is exactly what happened to cause the price to explode way beyond what I think it should be (pre covid). It's like a reactor got too cold, and the operator pulled all the control rods out, and now it is melting down and no one seems concerned to push the rods back in."

When oil dived from $70 to $40 a barrel, I read it was all due to less than a 1% worldwide "glut". Really caught me off guard for that little to have caused that great of an effect. May well be something similar working in reverse.

Re: Straight Talk About 9000 Available O&G Leases [Re: decook] #8551085 03/08/22 04:37 PM
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According to the news, it is high risk to invest in projects if the Dems can just shut the project down next week. Look what happened to the Keystone Pipeline. There is no telling what that cost. Then Biden cancelled it.

There needs to be some kind of legislation that will give producers and investors confidence that they can stay in business once started.

Fox was just talking about major banks being woke and avoiding financing for fossil fuel projects. The Fox reporter said that every time Jen Psaki steps up to the podium she is twisting the facts (lying). As I type this our fool at the top is lying to the public on national TV.

It is unbelievable the grip the progressives have on this administration. Of all the legislators the progressives have to be a small minority. Hopefully the rest have their phones ringing off the hook to stand up against the "squad" and other progressives.

Re: Straight Talk About 9000 Available O&G Leases [Re: BOBO the Clown] #8551086 03/08/22 04:37 PM
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Originally Posted by BOBO the Clown
Originally Posted by decook
Originally Posted by BOBO the Clown
Its all about cost of extraction. Offshore is the cheapest cost per gal. to extract.
The government can control flow by allowing imports and unnecessary compliance regulations on domestic.
It's pretty simple really, The private sector will slow flow to take advantage of current and future pricing in relation to their production costs. Currently number one thing to do to increase flow lower production costs, every business world off acceptable margin

Now second part when did Biden stop federal land/water production? when was it reversed? How long does it take to actually start producing oil once a lease is signed? Well over a year.

Essentially Biden purposely creates a backlog on federal leases and was trying to subsidize the lose of production with outside oil. Russia oil is a perfect example. Russia oil in use exploded under Biden. But its really nothing more then blood money.

Long story short Biden created no less then a two year delay in any new extraction on federal land. And that's assuming producers want to deal with his unneeded methane mandates





I see that BOBO, that is easy to understand. What I don't get is exactly what happened to cause the price to explode way beyond what I think it should be (pre covid). It's like a reactor got too cold, and the operator pulled all the control rods out, and now it is melting down and no one seems concerned to push the rods back in.


Not enough production to offset Or lower speculation quickly



Also don't discount a Presidents ability to counter speculation in a speech high lighting that we are about to open unprecedented flood gates to end high prices, and how we are changing regulations to lower costs.. Unfortunately we get the opposite with Biden. It's all about creating more speculation and driving costs up. 150 oil makes green energy worth while....and maybe even self support from a cost/efficency stand point.


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Re: Straight Talk About 9000 Available O&G Leases [Re: DannyB] #8551090 03/08/22 04:42 PM
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Originally Posted by DannyB
According to the news, it is high risk to invest in projects if the Dems can just shut the project down next week. Look what happened to the Keystone Pipeline. There is no telling what that cost. Then Biden cancelled it.

There needs to be some kind of legislation that will give producers and investors confidence that they can stay in business once started.

Fox was just talking about major banks being woke and avoiding financing for fossil fuel projects. The Fox reporter said that every time Jen Psaki steps up to the podium she is twisting the facts (lying). As I type this our fool at the top is lying to the public on national TV.

It is unbelievable the grip the progressives have on this administrations. Of all the legislators the progressives have to be a small minority. Hopefully the rest have their phones ringing off the hook to stand up against the "squad" and other progressives.


Everyone thinks everyone else just gets rich in the oil business.

It probably has the highest bankruptcy rate of any industry.

No one wants to invest in the O&G business because after the last big crashes wallstreet money flooded the O&G industry and there were new companies and joint ventures popping up hourly. All this money created this crazy market (from my side of the table I could see it) - ridiculous lease bonuses were being paid by private equity companies - areas that from a geology standpoint were just "meh" were getting $$$....so it comes time to drill and all the private equity companies were drilling just "meh" wells.....well - they didn't want their books to look bad on wallstreet...so what did they do to offset it? Drill more "meh" wells...and more meh wells..until most of them went bankrupt. That's why new investment isn't flooding O&G...most of the idiots got burned - and those that DID know what they were doing are already still in the game. My take on it at least.

Re: Straight Talk About 9000 Available O&G Leases [Re: decook] #8551098 03/08/22 04:49 PM
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No matter how you spin it, production has not dropped enough to justify $5.00/gal diesel in Tx. It has very little to do with supply and demand and everything to do with political policy.


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