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Re: Guadalupe county numbers down?
[Re: Texas452]
#8154812
02/04/21 12:32 AM
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Joined: Apr 2013
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freerange
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I have definitely seen the mast crop effect before there.. I don't think it is a mast crop event.. Honestly, I think the surveys are wrong and we have over harvested over the years.. It's been a decline the last few years..
It happened to us they would tell us there were more deer than the year before but we all knew they were full of it. The herd was decimated by over harvest. Will you share with us what area? County?
At some point in life its time to quit chasing the pot of gold and just enjoy the rainbow. FR Keep your gratitude higher than your expectations. RWH
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Re: Guadalupe county numbers down?
[Re: ccoker]
#8154933
02/04/21 01:48 AM
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ccoker
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Thanks We are MLD 3, there used to be a breeding operation and that got shut down like 4-5 years ago.. It 6500 acres, low fence primarily but borders 123 and it's primarily open on that side of the ranch.. I don't see a lot of deer moving across that area low fence on the back side but bordered by a road and a bif of high fence on one end. some pretty big open areas that you just don't see deer that often out there.. so, it it certainly not 6500 acres for hunting and dense oak tree areas
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Re: Guadalupe county numbers down?
[Re: Texas452]
#8155061
02/04/21 03:07 AM
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Joined: Aug 2010
Posts: 60,296
stxranchman
Obie Juan Kenobi
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I have definitely seen the mast crop effect before there.. I don't think it is a mast crop event.. Honestly, I think the surveys are wrong and we have over harvested over the years.. It's been a decline the last few years..
It happened to us they would tell us there were more deer than the year before but we all knew they were full of it. The herd was decimated by over harvest. How many acres and how many guns? What were the harvest recommendations? What was the deer density the habitat would carry? Did you do the survey's or did they?
Are idiots multiplying faster than normal people?
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Re: Guadalupe county numbers down?
[Re: ccoker]
#8155280
02/04/21 12:46 PM
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Joined: Jul 2019
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Hudbone
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Thanks We are MLD 3, there used to be a breeding operation and that got shut down like 4-5 years ago.. It 6500 acres, low fence primarily but borders 123 and it's primarily open on that side of the ranch.. I don't see a lot of deer moving across that area low fence on the back side but bordered by a road and a bif of high fence on one end. some pretty big open areas that you just don't see deer that often out there.. so, it it certainly not 6500 acres for hunting and dense oak tree areas
Some tough sand (deep) but a pretty place.
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Re: Guadalupe county numbers down?
[Re: Hudbone]
#8155320
02/04/21 01:23 PM
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Joined: Aug 2010
Posts: 60,296
stxranchman
Obie Juan Kenobi
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Thanks We are MLD 3, there used to be a breeding operation and that got shut down like 4-5 years ago.. It 6500 acres, low fence primarily but borders 123 and it's primarily open on that side of the ranch.. I don't see a lot of deer moving across that area low fence on the back side but bordered by a road and a bif of high fence on one end. some pretty big open areas that you just don't see deer that often out there.. so, it it certainly not 6500 acres for hunting and dense oak tree areas
Some tough sand (deep) but a pretty place. I was on the south part of this ranch on pastures that sold off years ago. It was very sandy on the east side and more open. There was a ridge on the east side(of south pastures) that started in about the middle that was much better soils. It was very thick, rolling cover and really looked like good deer habitat. Lot of canopy and tall trees with very thick underbrush.
Are idiots multiplying faster than normal people?
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Re: Guadalupe county numbers down?
[Re: ccoker]
#8155548
02/04/21 03:45 PM
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ccoker
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ok, so, you are familiar with it.. I would say 1/2 is deep thick stuff and 1/2 open I think we are "supposed" to shoot like 150 deer a year, about 50/50 mix We never do though.. I don't have the actual # of hunters, but my gut says it's too many and combined with a long season.. and that a section is long term lease to a business that brings guests out (we all know how that works out) I think it over hunted..
I also question the validity of the surveys.. you can't do a survey in the areas with the most deer and use that deer/acre data and spread it across the whole ranch.. I have no idea how they do it of course and I am not a wildlife biologist.
Last edited by ccoker; 02/04/21 03:47 PM.
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Re: Guadalupe county numbers down?
[Re: ccoker]
#8155588
02/04/21 04:07 PM
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Joined: May 2006
Posts: 9,794
ILUVBIGBUCKS
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So I just did 1,000 acres in LaSalle County between Millet and Los Angeles in between Dilley and Cotulla. If you select low fence it gives you 1 buck and 2 doe tags but when you change it to high-fence it gives you 4 bucks and 9 doe tags. Then I did 1,000 acres just east of Llano and it gave me 9 bucks, 2 spikes, & 43 does for low fence and 22 bucks & 73 does for high fence.
High fence, low fence, no fence, it really doesn't matter as long as you're hunting!
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Re: Guadalupe county numbers down?
[Re: ccoker]
#8155738
02/04/21 05:37 PM
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Joined: Apr 2013
Posts: 8,433
freerange
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Im pretty sure Texas has always been ahead of the game in game management. I think we started it and were staying in front. Does anyone know how unique the MLD program is as compared to other states? Do any states have anything close? I really dont know the answer but Im assuming its pretty unique and very progressive in an attempt to manage game/land/habitat. From what little I know about the tag estimator system and the survey methods behind it, it almost has to be a pretty flawed system. However Im grateful our State is trying and I do feel it does way more good than harm. Everyone just needs to do their due diligence before jumping in.
At some point in life its time to quit chasing the pot of gold and just enjoy the rainbow. FR Keep your gratitude higher than your expectations. RWH
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Re: Guadalupe county numbers down?
[Re: ccoker]
#8155776
02/04/21 06:04 PM
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Joined: Oct 2004
Posts: 39,536
redchevy
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Im far from a wildlife biologist, but 150 deer a year off 6500 acres in what i know of guadalupe county doesnt sound crazy.
It's hell eatin em live
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Re: Guadalupe county numbers down?
[Re: ccoker]
#8155834
02/04/21 06:39 PM
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Joined: Jul 2019
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Hudbone
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I remember when that place was ahead of the game and feeding black eyed peas to supplement the natural forage. Some real bombers would come out there from time to time.
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Re: Guadalupe county numbers down?
[Re: Hudbone]
#8155978
02/04/21 08:22 PM
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ccoker
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I remember when that place was ahead of the game and feeding black eyed peas to supplement the natural forage. Some real bombers would come out there from time to time. there have been a few great deer taken.. pushing 180, but the last few years a few in the mid 140s, maybe one breaking 150 I think we had one break 140 this year
Last edited by ccoker; 02/04/21 09:38 PM.
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Re: Guadalupe county numbers down?
[Re: ccoker]
#8156194
02/04/21 11:16 PM
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Joined: May 2012
Posts: 495
fishbait
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If you don't know how many deer you have on your patch of land then the only thing left is to use P&W s survey and then their recommendations. The accuracy of P&W survey is not very accurate...60% at best. The thing that P&W survey gives is how it correlates to years past..did numbers go up or down. I count my deer with 90% accuracy and better. ...but it cost me a lot of time and effort and there is the money it requires. I have 700 acres that I have counted many times ..in doing this I have learned a lot of facts about deer. The more Census I conduct the more accurate I get. You cannot tell how many deer you have accurately by conducting surveys...it takes a "CENSUS" to be accurate. The difference is a survey uses only a small part of the land to count deer then by math they calculate the amount of deer for the rest of the land....A CENSUS, you count every deer on the place to determine how many deer you have. This doesn't mean that P&W can't tell the direction the heard is heading. Even with using helicopters the accuracy in brush is only about 60% and less. If you can't tell a story with the data you have then any data you have is not as useful. Not only does it have to tell a story but the data has to correlate with other data. If you can't tell how many deer you have you can't manage the heard with knowledge that you're heading in the right direction and the speed in that direction. I feel the heard is very delicate ...by over harvesting we can devastate any managing process..by under harvesting the heard can get out of control quick. I am surprised that we can hold a heard fairly well sometimes. Most of us try to do the very best we can to manage our deer. The drawback conducting a Census is the many hours put in each census I conduct and it has to be done every year to stay accurate. With all being said ...P&W does pretty good on some years considering all the land they have to count. I would not want to try to count the 1000's of acres that they have to do each year and try to be as accurate as they can be. My hat is off to the great biologist we have doing a great job and always willing to help in any way they can.
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Re: Guadalupe county numbers down?
[Re: ccoker]
#8156490
02/05/21 03:04 AM
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Joined: Oct 2004
Posts: 39,536
redchevy
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I’d like some more info on this deer census. Unless you a HF open field i would think it impossible.
It's hell eatin em live
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Re: Guadalupe county numbers down?
[Re: ccoker]
#8156711
02/05/21 01:02 PM
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Joined: May 2012
Posts: 495
fishbait
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Thanks redchevy for your input as I appreciate and respect it. Before I got involved in trying to manage our heard, your input reflects my opinion years ago.lol But I was surprised how many hunters think alike trying different ways to manage our deer and are somewhat successful. My process is, in short, accomplished with the help of trail cameras. I researched processes from different areas using different methods. Then I began to follow other folks procedures but over the years I have taken those procedures and improved them, with failures and some success. I will only say each hunter should get involved with their cameras to count deer...in time I believe it would be worth while. Thanks again for your input.
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Re: Guadalupe county numbers down?
[Re: ccoker]
#8156794
02/05/21 02:23 PM
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Joined: Oct 2004
Posts: 39,536
redchevy
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We have found our most reliable heard estimating to be with Trail Camera/trail camera surveys also. Im sure there are much better cameras than the ones we have and probably would need many more of them than we have to derive your level of success/accuracy with them.
It's hell eatin em live
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Re: Guadalupe county numbers down?
[Re: ccoker]
#8156892
02/05/21 03:29 PM
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Posts: 4,755
ccoker
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how do know you aren't counting the same deer twice?
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Re: Guadalupe county numbers down?
[Re: ccoker]
#8156945
02/05/21 04:05 PM
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Joined: Oct 2004
Posts: 39,536
redchevy
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how do know you aren't counting the same deer twice?
The way we do it... and i say we loosely. My brother and dad have done most of it. We try to estimate a ratio of bucks to does, then you attempt to count how many different bucks you have and use the ratio to determine total deer numbers. It is far from perfect or exact. Fishbait must place a lot more faith in his than we do, and maybe for good reason, im sure he is much more dedicated to the implementation of the survey than we are.
It's hell eatin em live
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Re: Guadalupe county numbers down?
[Re: ccoker]
#8157003
02/05/21 04:34 PM
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Joined: May 2012
Posts: 495
fishbait
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I started my surveys in 2002 getting all the information I could get by phone and traveling. Much reading, but most of my process I have developed myself... rest assured the accuracy didn't just happen but hard work built my methods. most of my equipment came to me by presents and I bought quite a few, even repaired a few here and there, and yes there is a lot of money tied up in equipment. To address the issue of counting the same deer more than once..yes, just part of the process but to be accurate it takes many process' tied up in one bundle. Developing software that can tie loose ends up. Developed many calculations to help interpret results. All data has to relate to something...so as you can see years can go by before coming up with a reliable process. "NONE " came easy..that's for sure..lol Let me say ...any survey is only an educational guess ..still it is something ..better than nothing. Using only one camera years ago and moving it around on all sides of my lease and I was able to get a number for bucks and does....a far cry from where I am now. that's it in a nut shell.lol Good luck
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Re: Guadalupe county numbers down?
[Re: ccoker]
#8157009
02/05/21 04:38 PM
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Joined: May 2012
Posts: 495
fishbait
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Don't forget a survey is a calculated result and a "census" is a real number..
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Re: Guadalupe county numbers down?
[Re: ccoker]
#8157060
02/05/21 05:10 PM
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Joined: Sep 2009
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ccoker
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well, yeah, that is kind of my point. I don't think driving through a given high density area and spotlighting and using the same deer/acre ratio for the entire property.. I am NOT involved so I don't want to say they are doing it wrong. Just curious about all of this.
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Re: Guadalupe county numbers down?
[Re: fishbait]
#8157074
02/05/21 05:20 PM
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Joined: Oct 2004
Posts: 39,536
redchevy
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Don't forget a survey is a calculated result and a "census" is a real number..
Im not trying to be rude, i always want to better our own information. What makes yours a "census" and not a survey? I assume your deer do not have social security numbers, or do they have tags in their ears?
It's hell eatin em live
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Re: Guadalupe county numbers down?
[Re: ccoker]
#8157119
02/05/21 05:53 PM
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Joined: May 2012
Posts: 495
fishbait
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Thanks redchevy glad ya have a question. A survey is driving through a given route and counting what you see ...then calculating numbers that you see and calculating numbers per acres on the route. Then calculating the numbers for the whole place or the whole route. So you see only a small part of an area then calculating from the small part to the whole route then calculating for all your acres ....yet not seeing but a small portion. A "CENSUS" is capturing pictures that cover all the property and calculating ratios from exact number of bucks and number of total bucks for a number of does...however I go to more process' to end up with number of does. This is just so you can see the difference but is only a small part of what I do. A census separates from a survey simply that all deer are counted where on a survey only a small part is counted. That is why P&W ends up with numbers that cannot happen ..such as some ratios. But the survey serves it's purpose by comparing year after year. The social security numbers comes later...
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Re: Guadalupe county numbers down?
[Re: ccoker]
#8157151
02/05/21 06:14 PM
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Joined: Sep 2009
Posts: 4,755
ccoker
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I can't wait until Biden implements deer registration
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Re: Guadalupe county numbers down?
[Re: Hudbone]
#8159210
02/07/21 01:50 PM
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Joined: Jul 2019
Posts: 14,153
Hudbone
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I saw photos of several huge Guadalupe County bucks - all North of Geronimo. One was a multi-pointed freak taken by a lady hunter with a bow by York Creek or Alligator Creek (just can't recall) and another was a 160 plus monster arrowed just east of there.
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Re: Guadalupe county numbers down?
[Re: ccoker]
#8159448
02/07/21 05:24 PM
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Joined: Apr 2013
Posts: 8,433
freerange
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Goodness, thats a cool rack
At some point in life its time to quit chasing the pot of gold and just enjoy the rainbow. FR Keep your gratitude higher than your expectations. RWH
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