Jason Bayne, the creator and owner of Backup Tactical, gives us his insight into what's occurring within the “Boom or Bust’ gun industry…. and why you might not be able to find 9mm ammunition anywhere right now.

"You have to be in this business because you are passionate about guns, not for the steady income," exclaims Bayne.


He describes the gun industry as a finicky business that is influenced by politics and previous busts.


“Look at what happened during the last election, when everyone thought Hillary Clinton was going to take the presidency” recalls Bayne. “When a democrat is headed to win an election, gun sales go through the roof. People are motivated by the fear of gun bans or restrictions of rights that might be pushed by democrats entering the white house. Just look at when Obama was in office. It is known that ‘Obama was the best gun salesman in America.’”

Bayne gives us the backstory to explain how the “bust” occurred. In 2016 manufacturers were pumping out everything they could. The gun industry was betting on a huge surge in sales with Hillary Clinton looking to take the Presidency.


With the turn of events, President Trump won the election and the whole plan backfired. The surge didn’t happen. These were lean times in the gun industry when many gun companies went out of business. The oversupply had distributors sending back products they couldn’t sell and there was little business to be had in regard to gun sales.


Bayne says that this might explain why the market is in low supply today. Manufacturers were so burned badly back in 2016-2017, they don’t want to risk going under again.


“There is a fine line that manufacturers must walk so that they don’t put themselves out of business. They don’t want to manufacture too many products that distributors can’t sell” says Bayne.


With the current state of our country, people have been buying guns and ammo like never before. However, production isn’t amping up. Bayne is shocked by the shortage as well.


“That’s why you can’t find certain guns or ammunition. 9mm ammunition is all sold out, it’s unheard of for it to be this unattainable but it is.”


On the consumer side, Bayne acknowledges that many people are hoarding which is keeping certain supplies low. With the election around the corner, we’ll see how the gun industry responds.

I tend to recoil at the term "hoarding" when people decide to stock up. Folks who refused to plan ahead get nasty with others.
No, that's not me. I have not purchased any ammo since February because I spent the last few years buying ammo at low prices.

I am willing to bet that the folks who call other people hoarders aren't stocked up on food and supplies while they are still plentiful.

Yes and no. I dont blame anyone for having a decent supply of ammo or components. But there are plenty that scream about the sky falling and panic buy 10 years worth of supplies for no reason.

If you dont believe me, take a look at the toilet paper crisis a couple months ago.

It’s just supply and demand. 9mm ammo was already being produced at a level sufficient to supply the normal market, but then the market became abnormal. Unless manufacturing was already at max rate, you can bet that the rate of production has increased. But, as suggested above, when the market is saturated, demand is likely to drop like a rock, so that has to be a concern of the producers and somehow factored in to their plans. Seems like we are a long way from market saturation right now though.

I saw that Midway has a bunch of 5.56 from Israeli Industries at 57 cents per round. Our shortage of ammo has apparently been noticed by other producers. High prices bring higher production. Supply/demand.

Having said all that, I do wonder how long this will last. Cabelas had nothing much on the shelves today.

I started stocking up on ammo back in 2012. My wife and I started stocking up on 'life support inventory' several years back. We bought a freeze dryer and a dehydrator and started converting short term shelf life items to long term storage items.

"Manufacturers were so burned badly back in 2016-2017, they don’t want to risk going under again."

I think the numbers, with few exceptions, show a consistently growing market year over year. The only noteworthy slump in overall market value was in 2013. 2017 was actually a record year in overall market value.

Let's take a look those years and the ones surrounding them. 2015 was the only year to beat out 2016 in overall market value up til that point in time....while manufacturers probably did over-produce (noticeable that foreign imports were up significantly that year as well), driving the prices down...causing an overall market value just slightly under the previous year. But then in 2017, manufacturing numbers were lower than they had been in the 5 previous years and the value of the US firearms market skyrocketed.... 2020 will likely be the first year to beat that number.

I think if we want to look what is to blame for a firearms shortage, we need to look no further than 2019 manufacturing numbers - the 2nd lowest number in a decade. Seems simple enough to me, manufacturers are under producing in order to drive prices up.

2010 - 14,409,616 NICS Checks | Firearms manufactured: 5,459,240 | Firearms Imported: 2,839,947 | sales approximately: 8 BILLION
2011 - 16,454,951 NICS Checks | Firearms manufactured: 6,541,886 | Firearms Imported: 3,252,404 | sales approximately: 8.9 BILLION
2012 - 19,592,303 NICS Checks | Firearms manufactured: 8,578,610 | Firearms Imported: 4,844,590 | sales approximately: 9 BILLION
2013 - 21,093,273 NICS Checks | Firearms manufactured: 10,844,792 | Firearms Imported: 5,539,539 | sales approximately: 7.5 BILLION
2014 - 20,968,547 NICS Checks | Firearms manufactured: 9,050,626 | Firearms Imported: 3,625,268 | sales approximately: 9.6 BILLION
2015 - 23,141,970 NICS Checks | Firearms manufactured: 9,358,661 | Firearms Imported: 3,930,211 | sales approximately: 9.97 BILLION
2016 - 27,538,673 NICS Checks | Firearms manufactured: 11,497,441 | Firearms Imported: 5,137,771 | sales approximately: 9.86 BILLION
2017 - 25,235,215 NICS Checks | Firearms manufactured: 8,333,792 | Firearms Imported: 4,492,256 | sales approximately: 12 BILLION
2018 - 26,181,936 NICS Checks | Firearms manufactured: 9,052,628 | Firearms Imported: 4,305,851 | sales approximately: 10.4 BILLION
2019 - 28,369,750 NICS Checks | Firearms manufactured: 6,993,358 | Firearms Imported: 3,986,663 | sales approximately: 10.8 BILLION
2020 - 28,826,449 (through Sept.) | Firearms manufactured: -- | Firearms Imported: -- | sales currently estimated to top 14 BILLION by years end

Now the ammo shortage - that's another can of worms. Ammo manufacturers simply weren't prepared to supply what is turning out to be the largest year of firearms sales in history.

You are making my point for me. We should all stock up while supplies are plentiful and cheap - way, way before any shortages. I don't see that as hoarding. In fact, I do not understand why most people are not planning ahead TODAY for the inevitable panic driven shortages.

For example, when the TP fiasco reared its head, I didn't care because we already had what we needed to bridge the gap - long before the panic. Just like ammo and other supplies - buy a little extra on each trip to the store. Am I prepared for some kind of long term siege? Heck no, but a panic driven shortage doesn't need to be painful.

Marc

"Heck no, but a panic driven shortage doesn't need to be painful."

Wait a second, Americans don't panic... I was recently told so by a politician on TV! So, get that fake news outta here ROFL

Gun sales numbers are a meaningless way to judge ammo supply and demand because it's apples and oranges. Also, those numbers do not take into account private sales (thankfully) which is a much more important stat.

Look at it another way

Total guns sold:

2010: 8.298M
2011: 9.793M
2012: 13.422M
2013: 16.383M
2014: 12.675M
2015: 13.288M
2016: 16.634M
2017: 12.825M
2018: 13.357M
2019: 10.979M
2020: ?


2017 thru 2019 is the lowest 3-year total for number of guns sold since 2010-2012. Using total sales in dollars includes the inflation we've experienced over that time frame, which has nothing to do with the gun market.

If you take a look at the Big Town gun show today, you will see ammo EVERYWHERE ! They have tables stacked up with ammo all through the building. If you take a look at the prices they are asking, you will get an idea of the people selling it and how they are trying to virtually "screw" any buyers. For example, you can find all the 9mm you want there...running generally from 30.00 to 50.00 a box, depending on brands. You can find guys selling 100 round boxes of normally cheap white box Winchester ammo for 100.00 a box ! At this point it's a matter of getting the most money you can from all of the ammo !

And for reloaders, primers are not available no matter how much money you have, especially small pistol primers. They say all the primer manufacturing is going in to factory ammunition.

That makes sense. Why process 1,000 orders for 10,000 pieces when you can process just 1, theoretical of course. Factory orders are from preferred customers, not small fries.

You can find SPP for $150 per 1K. I bought mine in 2018 when they were $30 per 1K.

I don’t get how people can complain about not having ammo and/or guns. especially AR-15’s they were abundant and inexpensive for last 2-3 years. Up till the coronavirus the S&W M&P sport which is a solid no frills AR was $599 new, pmags were $109 for 10, and 5.56 and 7.62x39 was cheap. Like someone said before poor planning is that individuals problem not anyone else’s.

Ummm...M&P Sports were $499 here. I just bought p-Mags for $11 each last week online.