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Feb 5th, 2020
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price of leases #7796525 04/05/20 06:22 PM
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Due to the financial crisis we are in I am expecting the price of leases to go WWAAAYYYYY DOWN this year. Especially in Tx where the oil fields are hit the hardest. The people that are not effected by the downturn are gong to use their money to help relatives ( and maybe friends) to pay the rent and 'get by'.
So far on my quail lease 6 out of 10 have dropped off, and I doubt if the owner can find replacements. At least not anywhere near the 4k per hunter we were paying.
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Re: price of leases [Re: booskay] #7796542 04/05/20 06:32 PM
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My landowner emailed me yesterday about renewal. Same price for the last 6 years. I haven't heard back from the other 2 members on their intentions.

Re: price of leases [Re: booskay] #7796617 04/05/20 07:35 PM
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No way lease prices go down....yes some may drop off or even give up a lease but others will fill the void. The high demand for an increasingly limited product is simply too great.

Re: price of leases [Re: booskay] #7796664 04/05/20 08:39 PM
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I agree with majekman. Texas leads the nation in registered hunting licenses and whitetail tags harvested year over. There will always be a higher demand for hunting land than there is a viable supply.

Re: price of leases [Re: booskay] #7796674 04/05/20 08:46 PM
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I’d see the price of some of the higher end places dropping but not the average or normal lease. Some of the corporate outfits or 100k/year ranches sure.

Re: price of leases [Re: booskay] #7796723 04/05/20 09:34 PM
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Oil & gas will go as the price of crude goes. OPEC meets Monday and if the Russians and Saudis play nice by reducing production then you could see oil get back to $35/bbl or better (closed at $28 and some change on Friday). Demand will be down as long as the coronavirus has many people working from home but oil closer to $40 will go a long way to saving O&G jobs. I could really see a scenario where oil and the markets recover a lot of their losses quickly but that hinges on much of the nation getting back to working in offices sooner rather than later. I agree with the comment earlier - there will be some people that have to give up their lease but lease prices are pretty inelastic so I would not expect a lot of discounts.

Last edited by wsjaxIV; 04/05/20 09:36 PM.

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Re: price of leases [Re: booskay] #7796737 04/05/20 09:55 PM
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Maybe a small percentage drop, but a lot will remain the same. Some good leases will pop up that have not been renewed, but they will snatched up as soon as they hit the market.


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Re: price of leases [Re: booskay] #7796741 04/05/20 10:02 PM
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I suspect most leases are already committed to for this season and money already paid to LO. Prices may drop next year if this thing strings out


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Re: price of leases [Re: tlk] #7796811 04/05/20 10:57 PM
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Somebody said this.... " there will be some people that have to give up their lease but lease prices are pretty inelastic so I would not expect a lot of discounts." Well, I had to look up "inelastic" but after doing so, I would agree.


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Re: price of leases [Re: booskay] #7796821 04/05/20 11:05 PM
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I think it's all about how long the current mess extends itself. If we have all of the test kits we need in 30 days, sufficient hospital beds and a vaccine in 150 days, then this will be a painful blip on the economic radar. Otherwise, ... well, we'll see what we see.


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Re: price of leases [Re: freerange] #7796833 04/05/20 11:18 PM
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Originally Posted by freerange
Somebody said this.... " there will be some people that have to give up their lease but lease prices are pretty inelastic so I would not expect a lot of discounts." Well, I had to look up "inelastic" but after doing so, I would agree.


Dangit! Now I had to go look it up

Quote
in•e•las•tic ĭn″ĭ-lăs′tĭk

adj.
Lacking elasticity; unyielding or unadaptable. synonym: stiff.
adj.
Of, relating to, or being a good for which changes in price have little effect on the quantity demanded or supplied.
Not elastic; not returning after a strain; lacking elasticity.


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Re: price of leases [Re: decook] #7796841 04/05/20 11:30 PM
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Never thought of deer leases being "non elastic" - I will need to ponder on that


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Re: price of leases [Re: booskay] #7796973 04/06/20 01:10 AM
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I hope to find a good lease this year

Re: price of leases [Re: booskay] #7797034 04/06/20 01:51 AM
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Don't hold your breath waiting for them to go WAAAAAY down. If this mess doesn't last for a long time, you will turn blue waiting for that big drop to happen

Re: price of leases [Re: booskay] #7797376 04/06/20 02:13 PM
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There might be a few lease prices dropping but most payments are due or coming due. I know we just sent our payments and the price was the same. Still gotta pay to play. Either way be ready to pay if one does come up at a great price because it more than likely won’t last long.


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Re: price of leases [Re: booskay] #7797399 04/06/20 02:38 PM
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most leases the first half has already been due. I don't see prices dropping but I do see places coming available though, should be good time to snatch up an extra place if ones is looking

Re: price of leases [Re: booskay] #7797643 04/06/20 05:52 PM
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As I have posted in other threads, lease prices may not go down, but I do believe there will be many more openings due to some folks cannot justify the cost or even have the means to pay during these times.


Freedom is a fragile thing ...Those who have known freedom, and then lost it, have never known it again.
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Re: price of leases [Re: Halfadozen] #7797791 04/06/20 08:15 PM
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Originally Posted by Halfadozen
As I have posted in other threads, lease prices may not go down, but I do believe there will be many more openings due to some folks cannot justify the cost or even have the means to pay during these times.

I would agree with this statement ... some people will be forced to not renew due to financial hardships, thus more openings ... but for most good to better to best leases, there will be a line of people waiting to pay without a price drop.


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Re: price of leases [Re: booskay] #7797891 04/06/20 10:07 PM
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Most leases already have made payments to the LO so they are locked in for this season - next season may see fewer folks with disposable cash available to hunt - IMO when oil tanks it takes out a lot of the Houston area hunters unfortunately


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Re: price of leases [Re: booskay] #7798069 04/07/20 12:51 AM
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As others have said, landowners had timing in their favor regarding renewals. Many properties had renewals that were due in March or April 1. I personally had to commit to 2020-21 in February with a check due in early March right before the Rona really started hitting Texas.

Re: price of leases [Re: booskay] #7798285 04/07/20 04:45 AM
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I don't expect them to go down, but I sure would like to find a couple or three open slots on a full season quail lease in the Plains part of the state.


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Re: price of leases [Re: booskay] #7798354 04/07/20 12:04 PM
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I think if you see a lease come on the market that seems reasonable there is probably a reason. Folks are not going to give up a good lease that they have spent a lot of time and money on. On the other hand a lease that maybe has no Deer or has been shot out may be on the market at what seems a lower price. As always "Buyer Be Ware"

Re: price of leases [Re: booskay] #7798982 04/07/20 10:20 PM
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Ours stayed the same. First payment March 1

Re: price of leases [Re: nak] #7799004 04/07/20 10:52 PM
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Originally Posted by nak
I don't expect them to go down, but I sure would like to find a couple or three open slots on a full season quail lease in the Plains part of the state.


Good luck on a full season quail lease. They are far and few between. And lacking birds last few years in that area.

Re: price of leases [Re: booskay] #7799093 04/08/20 12:15 AM
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As a landowner I will say this, I don’t want you on my land but you are willing to pay a ridiculous price so I will take your money, if you don’t like it there is another to take your place at even a higher price, thanks

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