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Another Coronavirus Sanity Check #7788960 03/29/20 04:53 PM
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Texas Dan Online Content OP
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The governor of New York was quoted yesterday as saying that 30,000 ventilators will be needed to treat Coronavirus patients in the NYC area.

What the data currently reflects as to the number of ventilators needed to handle the patient load...

"The model then uses the best current estimates of how long someone is infectious (14 days); how many new cases each infected person causes (called the effective reproduction number, it’s about 2.5); the percentage of Covid-19 patients who need to be hospitalized (5%, reflecting the fact that most people have only mild or moderate illness); the percentage who need to be in an ICU (2%) or on a ventilator (1%); and the length of stay for each of these three."

If you do the math using historical data, the number of active cases in the NYC area that would require 30,000 ventilators would be 30,000/.01 = 3 million

There are currently 53,455 active Coronavirus cases in the state of New York.


Dan

Re: Another Coronavirus Sanity Check [Re: Texas Dan] #7789099 03/29/20 08:12 PM
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What’s the source of all of what you posted?


Originally Posted By: bill oxner
I just turned it on . I was looking bird dogs in the butt this morning.


Re: Another Coronavirus Sanity Check [Re: Duck_Hunter] #7789111 03/29/20 08:25 PM
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Originally Posted by Duck_Hunter
What’s the source of all of what you posted?


Link

Link

Keep in mind the reason for a sanity check isn't so much to determine what it true and valid but to discover if there's an untold message behind the current numbers.

Personally, I'm beginning to question if the attacks against the Chinese for their tracking data is not so much to question the impact of the disease as it is to defend some of the numbers and statements being made by our own experts.

Last edited by Texas Dan; 03/29/20 08:37 PM.

Dan

Re: Another Coronavirus Sanity Check [Re: Texas Dan] #7789291 03/29/20 10:33 PM
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Tha Covid team has mentioned the model is not matching actual numbers. If I understood correctly Friday, tomorrow, Monday data may provod a new model. New York is gonna take a big hit, regardless.

Re: Another Coronavirus Sanity Check [Re: Texas Dan] #7789379 03/29/20 11:51 PM
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Originally Posted by Texas Dan
The governor of New York was quoted yesterday as saying that 30,000 ventilators will be needed to treat Coronavirus patients in the NYC area.

What the data currently reflects as to the number of ventilators needed to handle the patient load...

"The model then uses the best current estimates of how long someone is infectious (14 days); how many new cases each infected person causes (called the effective reproduction number, it’s about 2.5); the percentage of Covid-19 patients who need to be hospitalized (5%, reflecting the fact that most people have only mild or moderate illness); the percentage who need to be in an ICU (2%) or on a ventilator (1%); and the length of stay for each of these three."

If you do the math using historical data, the number of active cases in the NYC area that would require 30,000 ventilators would be 30,000/.01 = 3 million

There are currently 53,455 active Coronavirus cases in the state of New York.



Was doing the same math Friday night and came up with .067% on ventilators. So that confirms the same thing I was thinking as well. I just don’t understand how we can come up with these numbers but the “leaders” keep spouting more ventilators are needed. Makes no sense to me. Either the real numbers are being skewed in the public reports or something else is going on that they aren’t saying.


Originally Posted by bill oxner
There are a couple of housewives near me who mow their yards. They look determined and beautiful on their zero turn mowers.

Re: Another Coronavirus Sanity Check [Re: Texas Dan] #7789412 03/30/20 12:07 AM
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Yeah, it is a little bizarre to say the least that today they were saying upwards of 160,000 dead in the US from coronavirus given the number currently is 2600. And that 160,000 is keeping the nation and economy shut down, as a best case scenario, they said the worst case would look something like 2.2M.

I don’t see those numbers, but then again I am not a public health dude either. Probably the same way I get made fun of for doing cataract surgery on patients “that don’t really need it”....

Re: Another Coronavirus Sanity Check [Re: Texas Dan] #7789423 03/30/20 12:11 AM
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Too bad the few will put the majority in danger for their fun.....irresponsible people is why we are where we are today.


Ill make you famous!


Re: Another Coronavirus Sanity Check [Re: pegasaurus] #7789426 03/30/20 12:13 AM
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Originally Posted by pegasaurus
Either the real numbers are being skewed in the public reports or something else is going on that they aren’t saying.


Hmm, 158,000 sealed indictments, 160,000 dead? Who knows..


Follow on Twitter, no account needed. #Qanon #/PatriotsFight #greatawakening
Re: Another Coronavirus Sanity Check [Re: Texas Dan] #7789434 03/30/20 12:16 AM
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Sanity check. Gone fishin up

Re: Another Coronavirus Sanity Check [Re: majekman] #7789448 03/30/20 12:27 AM
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Originally Posted by majekman
Sanity check. Gone fishin up



There you go, fun at any cost.


Ill make you famous!


Re: Another Coronavirus Sanity Check [Re: Concho] #7789594 03/30/20 01:57 AM
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Originally Posted by Concho
Originally Posted by majekman
Sanity check. Gone fishin up



There you go, fun at any cost.
m
Really? I live alone and I walk to the lake behind my house get in my boat and go fish for a couple hours...alone.
You betcha concho...fun at any cost
rolleyes

Re: Another Coronavirus Sanity Check [Re: Texas Dan] #7790098 03/30/20 03:48 PM
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Originally Posted by Texas Dan
Originally Posted by Duck_Hunter
What’s the source of all of what you posted?


Link

Link

Keep in mind the reason for a sanity check isn't so much to determine what it true and valid but to discover if there's an untold message behind the current numbers.

Personally, I'm beginning to question if the attacks against the Chinese for their tracking data is not so much to question the impact of the disease as it is to defend some of the numbers and statements being made by our own experts.


Thanks for the links. Interesting.


Originally Posted By: bill oxner
I just turned it on . I was looking bird dogs in the butt this morning.


Re: Another Coronavirus Sanity Check [Re: Concho] #7790186 03/30/20 05:09 PM
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Originally Posted by Concho
Originally Posted by majekman
Sanity check. Gone fishin up



There you go, fun at any cost.


Concho: I do not understand your position on this. Is this panic speaking in lieu of logic?
How can I spread/contract the virus fishing by myself with zero contact with anyone outside of my household?

Marc

Last edited by Marc K; 03/30/20 05:47 PM.

A Democracy is when two wolves and a lamb vote on the dinner menu. That is why this country was not designed to be a Democracy.
Re: Another Coronavirus Sanity Check [Re: Texas Dan] #7790208 03/30/20 05:23 PM
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I completely agree. The numbers being used by the media do not match the panic level incited.

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