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Another Coronavirus Sanity Check
#7788960
03/29/20 04:53 PM
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Joined: Jul 2008
Posts: 22,207
Texas Dan
OP
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OP
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Joined: Jul 2008
Posts: 22,207 |
The governor of New York was quoted yesterday as saying that 30,000 ventilators will be needed to treat Coronavirus patients in the NYC area.
What the data currently reflects as to the number of ventilators needed to handle the patient load...
"The model then uses the best current estimates of how long someone is infectious (14 days); how many new cases each infected person causes (called the effective reproduction number, it’s about 2.5); the percentage of Covid-19 patients who need to be hospitalized (5%, reflecting the fact that most people have only mild or moderate illness); the percentage who need to be in an ICU (2%) or on a ventilator (1%); and the length of stay for each of these three."
If you do the math using historical data, the number of active cases in the NYC area that would require 30,000 ventilators would be 30,000/.01 = 3 million
There are currently 53,455 active Coronavirus cases in the state of New York.
"Some people will never like you because your spirit irritates their demons."
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Re: Another Coronavirus Sanity Check
[Re: Texas Dan]
#7789099
03/29/20 08:12 PM
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Joined: Oct 2014
Posts: 12,331
Duck_Hunter
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Joined: Oct 2014
Posts: 12,331 |
What’s the source of all of what you posted?
I just turned it on . I was looking bird dogs in the butt this morning.
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Re: Another Coronavirus Sanity Check
[Re: Duck_Hunter]
#7789111
03/29/20 08:25 PM
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Joined: Jul 2008
Posts: 22,207
Texas Dan
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What’s the source of all of what you posted? LinkLinkKeep in mind the reason for a sanity check isn't so much to determine what it true and valid but to discover if there's an untold message behind the current numbers. Personally, I'm beginning to question if the attacks against the Chinese for their tracking data is not so much to question the impact of the disease as it is to defend some of the numbers and statements being made by our own experts.
Last edited by Texas Dan; 03/29/20 08:37 PM.
"Some people will never like you because your spirit irritates their demons."
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Re: Another Coronavirus Sanity Check
[Re: Texas Dan]
#7789291
03/29/20 10:33 PM
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Joined: Dec 2011
Posts: 5,815
Lazyjack
THF Trophy Hunter
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THF Trophy Hunter
Joined: Dec 2011
Posts: 5,815 |
Tha Covid team has mentioned the model is not matching actual numbers. If I understood correctly Friday, tomorrow, Monday data may provod a new model. New York is gonna take a big hit, regardless.
If the 2nd amendment was written just to include guns for hunting, why is there not an amendment to protect fishing poles?
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Re: Another Coronavirus Sanity Check
[Re: Texas Dan]
#7789379
03/29/20 11:51 PM
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Joined: Jul 2008
Posts: 21,617
pegasaurus
THF Celebrity
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Joined: Jul 2008
Posts: 21,617 |
The governor of New York was quoted yesterday as saying that 30,000 ventilators will be needed to treat Coronavirus patients in the NYC area.
What the data currently reflects as to the number of ventilators needed to handle the patient load...
"The model then uses the best current estimates of how long someone is infectious (14 days); how many new cases each infected person causes (called the effective reproduction number, it’s about 2.5); the percentage of Covid-19 patients who need to be hospitalized (5%, reflecting the fact that most people have only mild or moderate illness); the percentage who need to be in an ICU (2%) or on a ventilator (1%); and the length of stay for each of these three."
If you do the math using historical data, the number of active cases in the NYC area that would require 30,000 ventilators would be 30,000/.01 = 3 million
There are currently 53,455 active Coronavirus cases in the state of New York. Was doing the same math Friday night and came up with .067% on ventilators. So that confirms the same thing I was thinking as well. I just don’t understand how we can come up with these numbers but the “leaders” keep spouting more ventilators are needed. Makes no sense to me. Either the real numbers are being skewed in the public reports or something else is going on that they aren’t saying.
Funny thing about getting older: Your eyesight starts getting weaker but your ability to see through people's BS gets much better.
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Re: Another Coronavirus Sanity Check
[Re: Texas Dan]
#7789412
03/30/20 12:07 AM
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Joined: Nov 2011
Posts: 10,962
Texas buckeye
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Yeah, it is a little bizarre to say the least that today they were saying upwards of 160,000 dead in the US from coronavirus given the number currently is 2600. And that 160,000 is keeping the nation and economy shut down, as a best case scenario, they said the worst case would look something like 2.2M.
I don’t see those numbers, but then again I am not a public health dude either. Probably the same way I get made fun of for doing cataract surgery on patients “that don’t really need it”....
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Re: Another Coronavirus Sanity Check
[Re: Texas Dan]
#7789423
03/30/20 12:11 AM
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Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 26,157
Concho
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Posts: 26,157 |
Too bad the few will put the majority in danger for their fun.....irresponsible people is why we are where we are today.
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Re: Another Coronavirus Sanity Check
[Re: pegasaurus]
#7789426
03/30/20 12:13 AM
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Joined: Feb 2009
Posts: 21,923
Mike W
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Either the real numbers are being skewed in the public reports or something else is going on that they aren’t saying. Hmm, 158,000 sealed indictments, 160,000 dead? Who knows..
This cannot be fixed at the voting booth.. Wake Up You Morons!
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Re: Another Coronavirus Sanity Check
[Re: Texas Dan]
#7789434
03/30/20 12:16 AM
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Joined: Oct 2009
Posts: 4,459
majekman
Extreme Tracker
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Extreme Tracker
Joined: Oct 2009
Posts: 4,459 |
Sanity check. Gone fishin
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Re: Another Coronavirus Sanity Check
[Re: majekman]
#7789448
03/30/20 12:27 AM
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Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 26,157
Concho
THF Celebrity
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Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 26,157 |
Sanity check. Gone fishin There you go, fun at any cost.
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Re: Another Coronavirus Sanity Check
[Re: Concho]
#7789594
03/30/20 01:57 AM
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Joined: Oct 2009
Posts: 4,459
majekman
Extreme Tracker
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Extreme Tracker
Joined: Oct 2009
Posts: 4,459 |
Sanity check. Gone fishin There you go, fun at any cost. m Really? I live alone and I walk to the lake behind my house get in my boat and go fish for a couple hours...alone. You betcha concho...fun at any cost
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Re: Another Coronavirus Sanity Check
[Re: Texas Dan]
#7790098
03/30/20 03:48 PM
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Joined: Oct 2014
Posts: 12,331
Duck_Hunter
THF Celebrity
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THF Celebrity
Joined: Oct 2014
Posts: 12,331 |
What’s the source of all of what you posted? LinkLinkKeep in mind the reason for a sanity check isn't so much to determine what it true and valid but to discover if there's an untold message behind the current numbers. Personally, I'm beginning to question if the attacks against the Chinese for their tracking data is not so much to question the impact of the disease as it is to defend some of the numbers and statements being made by our own experts. Thanks for the links. Interesting.
I just turned it on . I was looking bird dogs in the butt this morning.
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Re: Another Coronavirus Sanity Check
[Re: Concho]
#7790186
03/30/20 05:09 PM
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Joined: Nov 2010
Posts: 3,199
Marc K
Veteran Tracker
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Veteran Tracker
Joined: Nov 2010
Posts: 3,199 |
Sanity check. Gone fishin There you go, fun at any cost. Concho: I do not understand your position on this. Is this panic speaking in lieu of logic? How can I spread/contract the virus fishing by myself with zero contact with anyone outside of my household? Marc
Last edited by Marc K; 03/30/20 05:47 PM.
A Democracy is when two wolves and a lamb vote on the dinner menu. That is why this country was specifically not designed as a Democracy. We are a Constitutional Republic.
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Re: Another Coronavirus Sanity Check
[Re: Texas Dan]
#7790208
03/30/20 05:23 PM
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Joined: Jan 2008
Posts: 5,573
Leonardo
THF Trophy Hunter
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Joined: Jan 2008
Posts: 5,573 |
I completely agree. The numbers being used by the media do not match the panic level incited.
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