4 to be exact..........Harvey was the last one. I was the only one in Jamaica Beach. And its because most of the time its too hard to get back home. Not because I'm tough , just hard headed. Sent my wife away every time.

Probably the best place to go. My buddy survived the big one that hit Cozemel/Cancun years ago. No where to go. Ate pb&j for 10 days. Wife tried to divorce him a few times.

New report says it could be the strongest in 30 years. Cathy is flying to Austin Saturday.

I remember when you did that. It had to be really eerie waiting to see where it was going to land.

We only got the rain from Harvey. Never lost power.

Euro model doesn't have it making landfall now...

Roflmao. Hope they saved their receipt for the generator

What was the one years ago that hit the mid-Atlantic states and everyone over here was buying generators and hauling arse over there to gouge people?

Store shelves are empty. There are gas lines. Buying frenzy.

This is the 5:00 PM (EST) forecast discussion from NWS Melbourne. It looks to be on track to hit Florida.


111
FXUS62 KMLB 302100
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
500 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2019

.DISCUSSION...

...Major Hurricane Dorian a Threat to all of East Central Florida...
...Prolonged Period of Hurricane Conditions Possible...

Currently/Tonight...
While largely limited to points north of the I-4 Corridor, today`s
round of sct diurnal convection produced efficient rainmakers along
a weak frontal boundary with radar estimating some producing btwn 1-
2" rain amounts...lcl amounts btwn 3-4" btwn Lake Woodruff and
Glenwood. Heaviest rainfall has largely pushed out of the
CWA...isold additional shras/tsras will dissipate toward sunset with
little fanfare. Coastal shras forming over the Gulf Stream are
struggling to survive over the cooler shelf waters.

Deep E/SE flow will continue overnight as an inverted trof over the
FL peninsula pushes into the ern GOMex. These winds will tap a dry
air pocket over the Bahamas that will limit the potential for
nocturnal coastal shras. Will give a nod to the strength and depth
of the onshore flow and keep slgt chc of shras...and any that do
form will be insignificant. Steady onshore flow overnight will keep
min temps in the M/U70s.

Labor Day Weekend...
Brisk and deep easterly flow on Sat will back to the NE on Sunday as
Hurricane Dorian creeps toward the FL Peninsula. Relatively dry and
suppressed air will precede him with PWat values dropping to 1.75"-
2.00" with H85-H50 dewpoint depressions btwn 7-10C. Overall
shra/tsras activity will be limited, but due to the increasing
easterly flow, any that do form will be able to cover a large area.
Will cap PoPs at 40pct with only slgt chc of tsras.

Dorian has strengthened to a major hurricane and continues go grind
his west toward the NW Bahamas Sunday/Sunday night, where the
steering flow is expected to collapse. A considerable slowing of
forward motion is expected as he approaches the FL east coast
Mon/Mon night. A turn to the NW is forecast to occur over the FL
peninsula after he makes landfall on the Treasure Coast the mid/upr
ridge currently steering Dorian develops a weakness.

A Hurricane Watch is likely to be issued by midday Sat for at least
a portion of our coastline.

While a Day 4 landfall is currently forecast (avg track error arnd
150mi), it is becoming increasingly likely that east central Florida
Peninsula will experience a prolonged hurricane event due to the
weakening steering flow, as the official forecast indicates Dorian
will take two days to travel from the northern Bahamas to the I-10
Corridor.

Dorian is forecast to become a very dangerous category 4 hurricane
as he approaches the FL east coast. The situation is particularly
serious for all of central FL as the forecast track places the
entire area under Dorian`s powerful wind and torrential precip
fields late Monday into late Wednesday. Coastal communities will be
particularly vulnerable not only to the wind and rain, but to deadly
storm surge as well. It should be noted that tropical storm force
winds will precede the arrival of the storm center by several hours
prior to landfall.

Residents and visitors to Florida are urged to monitor the latest
are forecast from NHC and your local NWS office. Review your
hurricane preparedness plan and make sure necessary supplies are
fully stocked.

Tue-Fri...(prev disc)
Forecast is highly dependent on Dorian`s track and forward motion.
Official NHC forecast shows decreasing storm motion as Dorian
approaches the east coast so impacts look like they will persist
into the middle of next week. In fact, a prolonged wind and rain
event for east central Florida is looking more likely.

There's thin line between what is news and what is sensationalism when it comes to reporting on approaching hurricanes. Yesterday it was being reported that people in Florida can "expect" a direct hit. Now it appears there is a decent chance the storm will turn north and never reach the coast. Having lived within 90 miles of the Gulf Coast all my life, I know there is nothing that makes people decide to stay any more than earlier sensationalism that never panned out.

The fact is, 9 out of 10 people who lose their life in a Hurricane were in the area of the storm surge. The average person who doesn't live close to the expected storm surge area is far better off to just "hunker down". Yes, there are likely to be much inconvenience afterwards, but that too can be lessened with some key precautions.

I don't disagree.

At the end of the day, the most dangerous storms don't need sensationalism to make people respect them.

They say it's a cat 4 now at 130mph. I bet it makes it to cat 5 which would need to be 157mph.

Looks like no longer a direct hit, except for Bahamas

Still to early to tell. My wife has a theory that some of the earthquakes in that area might have something to do with the new path

I was supposed to fly into Orlando after lunch today to prepare for Dorian making landfall but that's been placed on hold for now...no telling where it's going to hit if it even does at all

Damned if you and damned if you don't.. I rode out several. They last about an hour. The biggest problem is getting back home when you leave.

I never lost power with this one. My biggest problem was dealing with State Farm.

Bill I haven’t heard anything good about State Farm since the 80s. They’re priced way too high for the service they give.

They had to send out refunds in Texas. They are now being sued for overcharging in California.

Latest forecast about 4 hours ago. Looks like a new ball game.

Except for the Bahamas, its gonna hit nada, nunca, nijet, all media hipe

I should have loaded up on home depot stock damn it!

Jim cantore already rolled his sleeves back up