Forums46
Topics536,995
Posts9,719,276
Members86,987
|
Most Online25,604 Feb 12th, 2024
|
|
|
Drill baby drill
#7545866
07/01/19 03:43 PM
|
Joined: Sep 2015
Posts: 3,381
Lakhota
OP
Veteran Tracker
|
OP
Veteran Tracker
Joined: Sep 2015
Posts: 3,381 |
I just hear that as of The end of April the United States is producing 12 million barrels of oil a day. Therefore, we are now the largest producer of oil in the World and the hope is by the end of the year is to be at 13 million barrels a day.
|
|
|
Re: Drill baby drill
[Re: Lakhota]
#7545882
07/01/19 04:07 PM
|
Joined: Sep 2008
Posts: 4,746
texfork
Extreme Tracker
|
Extreme Tracker
Joined: Sep 2008
Posts: 4,746 |
Prayer is the "ultimate" wireless connection .
|
|
|
Re: Drill baby drill
[Re: Lakhota]
#7545883
07/01/19 04:14 PM
|
Joined: Nov 2012
Posts: 15,612
QuitShootinYoungBucks
THF Celebrity
|
THF Celebrity
Joined: Nov 2012
Posts: 15,612 |
https://web.archive.org/web/20170223065011/http:/www.rrdvegas.com/silencer-cleaning.html
|
|
|
Re: Drill baby drill
[Re: Lakhota]
#7545916
07/01/19 04:49 PM
|
Joined: Nov 2007
Posts: 9,061
Espy
THF Trophy Hunter
|
THF Trophy Hunter
Joined: Nov 2007
Posts: 9,061 |
|
|
|
Re: Drill baby drill
[Re: Lakhota]
#7545937
07/01/19 05:23 PM
|
Joined: Nov 2009
Posts: 68,983
NORML as can be
^^Cut the Cord^^
|
^^Cut the Cord^^
Joined: Nov 2009
Posts: 68,983 |
(R-TX) .-- " TCNN CURL CRLB VFF VRNO AYR SNDL CGC TLRY MSOS "
_=====___=________==-
|
|
|
Re: Drill baby drill
[Re: Lakhota]
#7545947
07/01/19 05:42 PM
|
Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 9,952
LFD2037
THF Trophy Hunter
|
THF Trophy Hunter
Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 9,952 |
So why am I paying $2.52/gal? Shouldn't it be closer to $1.50?
R.I.P. CPO Matt Mills-(DEVGRU)- You will NEVER be forgotten! 10-25-75 / 8-6-11 *K.I.A.*
|
|
|
Re: Drill baby drill
[Re: LFD2037]
#7545957
07/01/19 06:03 PM
|
Joined: Oct 2007
Posts: 8,268
BradyBuck
THF Trophy Hunter
|
THF Trophy Hunter
Joined: Oct 2007
Posts: 8,268 |
So why am I paying $2.52/gal? Shouldn't it be closer to $1.50? Not enough refineries!
HRCH Washita's Kimber Locked N Loaded GRHRCH Firefly's Rally The Troops MH
|
|
|
Re: Drill baby drill
[Re: Lakhota]
#7545969
07/01/19 06:24 PM
|
Joined: Jul 2012
Posts: 15,606
603Country
THF Celebrity
|
THF Celebrity
Joined: Jul 2012
Posts: 15,606 |
This thread brings back old memories of when I was a young Chemical Engineer. The worry back then was that we, as a nation, were running out of crude oil. Everybody was wringing their hands and moaning. Well, heck, I believed that too. I didn’t know the truth of the matter. And the truth was, we were running out of $20 Oil. We weren’t really running out, we had plenty of $25, $30, $35 dollar oil. And we have, today, plenty of $60, $70 dollar oil.
And as for what gasoline costs at the pump, I just flat don’t remember all the cost factors in the price. It is, of course, price based on supply and demand, but there is a lag in how that works. If there’s a run on gas and inventories fall, then prices rise (quickly, as you’ve noticed). If the inventory reduction wasn’t expected, the impact is greater, but either way it takes a while to get the crude, refine it, and put in trucks, barges, and pipelines to get it into inventory. Worse, if the crude inventory isn’t available, the price rises higher since we now have a raw material shortage and price competition for it. Short term, but still a shortage.
It was a very interesting business I was in as a Process Engineer. Then I went into oil trading and brother..that’s really crazy.
Not my monkeys, not my circus...
|
|
|
Re: Drill baby drill
[Re: BradyBuck]
#7545971
07/01/19 06:27 PM
|
Joined: Jan 2007
Posts: 1,802
MO
Pro Tracker
|
Pro Tracker
Joined: Jan 2007
Posts: 1,802 |
So why am I paying $2.52/gal? Shouldn't it be closer to $1.50? Not enough refineries! I read that our refineries are not capable of refining the crude coming out of west Texas ? Can that be right ? MO
MY BACKYARD , 20,000 ACRES , NO MOWING
|
|
|
Re: Drill baby drill
[Re: MO]
#7546021
07/01/19 07:46 PM
|
Joined: May 2012
Posts: 8,376
nsmike
THF Trophy Hunter
|
THF Trophy Hunter
Joined: May 2012
Posts: 8,376 |
So why am I paying $2.52/gal? Shouldn't it be closer to $1.50? Not enough refineries! I read that our refineries are not capable of refining the crude coming out of west Texas ? Can that be right ? MO That's a complex infrastructure problem. One of the biggest problems in West Texas is pipeline capacity to get the crude to the refineries. Refineries can't process any crude, they are designed to process crude oil between a certain range, WTI crud, might not be able to be processed in a facility designed for a different class of crude. I remember when Valero was making a killing during a period of oil scarcity because they could process relatively cheap and available heavy crude. It's entirely possible that there isn't enough of the right refining capacity for the type of crude they a producing in West Texas.
for every stereotype there's a prototype don't be the prototype
|
|
|
Re: Drill baby drill
[Re: Lakhota]
#7546032
07/01/19 08:02 PM
|
Joined: Jul 2012
Posts: 15,606
603Country
THF Celebrity
|
THF Celebrity
Joined: Jul 2012
Posts: 15,606 |
If the crude is WTI (West Texas intermediate), the refineries were originally designed to handle it. If it’s a shale oil, I have to admit that I don’t know the properties, so don’t know if they can run it. I would be very surprised however, if they couldn’t run it. Refineries these days have evolved to be able to run many different types of crude oil. But not every refinery has that degree of feed flexibility.
I’d expect that many refineries have been running the shale oil for some time. Once a major refiner had plans for shale oil recovery, either buy it or recover it themselves, they would have put the necessary plant modifications into their Capital Budget Proposal. That should have happened years ago. You don’t just buy a new and different crude and run it into your Crude Oil Distillation unit, clasp your hands and pray for success.
In the middle 70’s, the refinery I worked for decided to run a Mexican crude oil called Maya. We made the changes to the plant to be able to handle it, but it was way too thick and heavy (as opposed to a light crude like WTI), and our changes weren’t enough. We could not run it till further changes were made and big money was spent.
Not my monkeys, not my circus...
|
|
|
Re: Drill baby drill
[Re: Lakhota]
#7546058
07/01/19 08:42 PM
|
Joined: Jul 2006
Posts: 110,788
dogcatcher
THF Celebrity
|
THF Celebrity
Joined: Jul 2006
Posts: 110,788 |
I just read that the oilfield services company Weatherford International has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.
Combat Infantryman, the ultimate hunter where the prey shoots back. _____________"Illegitimus non carborundum est"_______________
|
|
|
Re: Drill baby drill
[Re: LFD2037]
#7546079
07/01/19 09:32 PM
|
Joined: Jan 2007
Posts: 15,410
reeltexan
THF Celebrity
|
THF Celebrity
Joined: Jan 2007
Posts: 15,410 |
So why am I paying $2.52/gal? Shouldn't it be closer to $1.50? too much tax on a gallon
"Give me an Army of West Point graduates and I'll win a battle... Give me a handful of Texas Aggies and I'll win a war." - General Patton
|
|
|
Re: Drill baby drill
[Re: bucksnbass357]
#7546102
07/01/19 09:48 PM
|
Joined: Dec 2005
Posts: 6,233
Chickenman
Extremely Right Wing
|
Extremely Right Wing
Joined: Dec 2005
Posts: 6,233 |
|
|
|
Re: Drill baby drill
[Re: reeltexan]
#7546129
07/01/19 10:13 PM
|
Joined: Jan 2011
Posts: 65,416
SnakeWrangler
THF Celebrity
|
THF Celebrity
Joined: Jan 2011
Posts: 65,416 |
So why am I paying $2.52/gal? Shouldn't it be closer to $1.50? too much tax on a gallon Yup....you’re actually paying about $1.25/gal plus tax....
I believe in science and I’m an insufferable [censored] Actually, BBC is pretty damn good "You Cannot Simultaneously Be Politically Correct And Intellectually Honest!"
|
|
|
Re: Drill baby drill
[Re: Lakhota]
#7546192
07/01/19 11:19 PM
|
Joined: Aug 2012
Posts: 2,761
nak
Veteran Tracker
|
Veteran Tracker
Joined: Aug 2012
Posts: 2,761 |
Shale oil is a Ponzi scheme that is bound to come apart at some point.
There are massive reserves in Shale Formations. It will provide us with oil for years to come, but its not economical compared to convectional production until prices get back up a lot higher than they are now.
We all need to practice Whoa more.
|
|
|
Re: Drill baby drill
[Re: Lakhota]
#7546237
07/02/19 12:04 AM
|
Joined: Mar 2013
Posts: 5,025
jetdad
THF Trophy Hunter
|
THF Trophy Hunter
Joined: Mar 2013
Posts: 5,025 |
^^^^^^ Can you explain what you mean by "come apart"?
|
|
|
Re: Drill baby drill
[Re: jetdad]
#7546312
07/02/19 01:44 AM
|
Joined: Aug 2012
Posts: 2,761
nak
Veteran Tracker
|
Veteran Tracker
Joined: Aug 2012
Posts: 2,761 |
^^^^^^ Can you explain what you mean by "come apart"? Well maybe Ponzi is not the right word for it, but folks a lot smarter than me don't think Shale drilling and production are sustainable in this oil price range (think: They need oil prices to double ). My limited understanding is that Shale wells tend to deplete more rapidly than conventional production, so your drilling program has to be continuous, to maintain the same production level. They cost more to get into production and to keep in production. Many, maybe all, of the drilling and producing the Shale plays are operating at a loss. Think Tesla and Uber... You cannot keep this up for long...and where is the money coming from? The majors are diverting profits from core business to fund the Shale programs. The small, and maybe some of the larger guys, are borrowing money to drill and pay investor dividends. All of this is based upon the hope that if oil prices double, they will suddenly be sitting on a goldmine, and can repay what they have borrowed, or diverted. What happens if that windfall does not come? LInk: Shales not profitable LInk: More smart people on Shale Production
We all need to practice Whoa more.
|
|
|
Re: Drill baby drill
[Re: Lakhota]
#7546315
07/02/19 01:47 AM
|
Joined: Jul 2012
Posts: 15,606
603Country
THF Celebrity
|
THF Celebrity
Joined: Jul 2012
Posts: 15,606 |
I was told not too long ago, by a person whose knowledge I respect, that shale oil can be economically produced at and below today’s price point. That does not mean that every producer will be able to recover it at this level. Some producers will fail and be sold to more efficient companies.
It’s just a guess, and worth every penny you paid me, but I expect that crude oil prices will wobble along at or near today’s level for a number of years, unless or until something drastic and unexpected happens. It might even get a bit lower for a time. It’s too early to tell what impact electric vehicles will have, but that should be more of a long term thing, not short term. It might even have the same market effect that diesel in cars did. Going to diesel was supposed to be the smart way to go, and it was cheaper. Well, it was cheaper because demand was relatively low. When demand jumped up quickly, people finally realized that our refineries were designed to produce mostly gasoline, and diesel production was just a small part of the yield of a barrel of crude. Diesel prices rose above gasoline and stayed there. What’s going to happen when electricity demand for a bazillion cars and trucks hits the market. We already have brownouts in parts of the US during hot weather. Now let’s increase demand dramatically and we’ll see what happens. Power costs should rise to levels we haven’t seen before. Old ladies and the inner city welfare crowd won’t be able to run the AC units. And not one politician will have seen this coming.
Forgive me for sounding a bit negative, but I’ve been around a while and I’ve seen this dance before.
Not my monkeys, not my circus...
|
|
|
Re: Drill baby drill
[Re: dogcatcher]
#7546344
07/02/19 02:21 AM
|
Joined: Jan 2006
Posts: 3,427
cannon88
Veteran Tracker
|
Veteran Tracker
Joined: Jan 2006
Posts: 3,427 |
I just read that the oilfield services company Weatherford International has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. Yep. I worked there for almost a decade. I went to another company when they closed their doors in Fort Worth. I have been out of the oil field completely now for 3-4 years. I remember when Weatherford stock was around $150/share, then it split and they were growing like crazy. Huge company. Last I checked, before the chapter 11 filing, stock was around 27 cents. Crazy.
|
|
|
Re: Drill baby drill
[Re: nak]
#7546361
07/02/19 02:52 AM
|
Joined: Mar 2013
Posts: 5,025
jetdad
THF Trophy Hunter
|
THF Trophy Hunter
Joined: Mar 2013
Posts: 5,025 |
^^^^^^ Can you explain what you mean by "come apart"? Well maybe Ponzi is not the right word for it, but folks a lot smarter than me don't think Shale drilling and production are sustainable in this oil price range (think: They need oil prices to double ). My limited understanding is that Shale wells tend to deplete more rapidly than conventional production, so your drilling program has to be continuous, to maintain the same production level. They cost more to get into production and to keep in production. Many, maybe all, of the drilling and producing the Shale plays are operating at a loss. Think Tesla and Uber... You cannot keep this up for long...and where is the money coming from? The majors are diverting profits from core business to fund the Shale programs. The small, and maybe some of the larger guys, are borrowing money to drill and pay investor dividends. All of this is based upon the hope that if oil prices double, they will suddenly be sitting on a goldmine, and can repay what they have borrowed, or diverted. What happens if that windfall does not come? LInk: Shales not profitable LInk: More smart people on Shale ProductionYou can't compare break even with a given company's ability to raise additional capital in the public arena. There are many shale producers that are profitable at todays prices. Increasing production year over year is a component of raising capital and keeping the financial engine running. While it is probably true that some E&P companies have been over zealous with their drilling programs that doesn't mean the sky is falling. Adjustments are always made whether voluntarily or market induced. The over leveraged usually lose in any volatile commodities market. Focusing solely on growth is not a good model.
|
|
|
Re: Drill baby drill
[Re: nak]
#7546485
07/02/19 12:03 PM
|
Joined: Sep 2008
Posts: 6,695
Cochise
THF Trophy Hunter
|
THF Trophy Hunter
Joined: Sep 2008
Posts: 6,695 |
Shale oil is a Ponzi scheme that is bound to come apart at some point.
There are massive reserves in Shale Formations. It will provide us with oil for years to come, but its not economical compared to convectional production until prices get back up a lot higher than they are now. That is not true. Obviously conventional plays are going to be more economical - they're much cheaper to drill. You're talking $2-3mm wells vs $8-20mm wells. However, shale plays, at current prices can be economical with the right operator even below current prices. Technology has advanced far enough in all aspects of exploration and drilling to bring costs down. With that said - there is a half truth to your statement. Private equity companies - companies that have ZERO business operating in the E&P field have been majorly in the game since the big downturn in prices. These companies are driven by $$$$$ - not common sense. $$$$$ does not always equate success in the E&P business. There are dozens of E&P companies, not tiny ones either, that are filing chapter 11 because their approach (and private equity control) made them do things that were NOT common sense and they've quickly ran their companies into the ground.
|
|
|
Re: Drill baby drill
[Re: SnakeWrangler]
#7546545
07/02/19 01:19 PM
|
Joined: Jun 2015
Posts: 5,900
Jgraider
THF Trophy Hunter
|
THF Trophy Hunter
Joined: Jun 2015
Posts: 5,900 |
So why am I paying $2.52/gal? Shouldn't it be closer to $1.50? too much tax on a gallon Yup....you’re actually paying about $1.25/gal plus tax.... In Texas, state and federal taxes on gasoline is 38.4 cts per gallon, diesel fuel/distillates carry a 44.4 cts per gallon tax.
|
|
|
Re: Drill baby drill
[Re: Jgraider]
#7547109
07/02/19 11:28 PM
|
Joined: May 2006
Posts: 31,055
HWY_MAN
THF Celebrity
|
THF Celebrity
Joined: May 2006
Posts: 31,055 |
In Texas, state and federal taxes on gasoline is 38.4 cts per gallon, diesel fuel/distillates carry a 44.4 cts per gallon tax. That's just what they get at the pump, they grab a big handful right at the wellhead.
Last edited by HWY_MAN; 07/02/19 11:31 PM.
Yes! A Weatherby does kill them deader.
|
|
|
Moderated by bigbob_ftw, CCBIRDDOGMAN, Chickenman, Derek, DeRico, Duck_Hunter, hetman, jeh7mmmag, JustWingem, kmon11, kry226, kwrhuntinglab, Payne, pertnear, rifleman, sig226fan (Rguns.com), Superduty, TreeBass, txcornhusker
|