Dale Rollings 2017/18 quail season prediction - "disappointingly average"

Just heard a radio show where Rollings was interviewed and asked to make a prediction about the upcoming quail season. He prefaced it by saying it was still too early to say for sure, but he is predicting a "disappointingly average" season. Admittedly said that anything short of spectacular on the heels of the past 2 years was bound to be so. Reckon he is being overly cautious, or do you guys have the same feelings?

I assume he's describing the state as a whole but I'd have to question it based on what some pretty reliable people have told me about the areas that I hunt.

We have several clutch ages maturing now and based on rain we'll have another hatch. Of course, even when it's bad at big lake it's still stellar.

Again his glass is always half empty especially this time of year. I would imagine more money (donations) comes in when not as good. I think he is a great guy and does a lot of good just my observation. Now I will say how could it ever be as good as last year?

Lets hope for a good season and some luck

Okay, everything is a math problem for me. Based on the last two years averages, if I lost 50% of the quail I have been pointing and flushing, that would equal somewhere between 16-18 coveys a day I could still play with. I'll take it!

My numbers here are probably what they were last year and maybe a little less.

south of san antonio the rains havent been enough , but have been timed right, last year was very good, this year is turning out to be better with higher covey counts,,, But , the doves,, dont have them cant figgure where they went

any area that's getting triple digit temps is hard on chicks

No doves on our place either!!! Always native doves on our place.

Here's hoping it ain't true.

I've seen a lot of seasons that I would've been tickled to get "average".

Amen

Talked to a rancher today that we hunt on every year NW of Abilene, and he said he would be real surprised if it doesnt turn out as good as the past two years. Said little dry in May then its been frequent rain and cover looks great. Lots of chicks of various sizes.

We have great numbers of Doves this year so far. The Quail look good too. Dr.Rollins is the best informed authority on the subject. Our ranch is part of the Scaled/Blue Quail relocation project in Knox County that his group has run. How that study is going is listed in the link below.
While is too early to know for sure.If we have half as many quail as last year, we will still be in great shape.
RPQRR website LINK

He has to say that. He makes his living studying why quail populations are disappearing. Guess what? They are stronger this year than in last 20 years.
Hard to get donations and grants if says problem solved.

I don't believe for one second that he operates in that manner at all. From everything I've seen he is a solid scientist and a man of integrity. I agree that we have more quail than in the past 20 years, and I also realize the pendulum could quickly swing the other direction. Work done by he and his team (and others like it) is very valuable and I don't think it should be discounted.

I like Dr. Rollins but tell me what work done by he and his team has had any impact on the quail population?
The only thing that was needed was rain, good cover, and feed. He has been running that research ranch in west Texas for years and I haven't seen any answers that helped the quail to any extent. Yes he advocated control burns, predator control, native grass and weed replanting. But that was already known by any rancher out there. What everyone including Dr. Rollins learned over the last 15 years is that plentiful rain at the right time, open areas where seedy weeds can grow and lower predator numbers are needed to have quail numbers and three years in a row of those conditions make for a boon in the numbers. You can't medicate, vaccinate, or food plot quail back to healthy numbers.

Dale's team an others like his (Kelly Reyna at UNT with TAMU reversing quail decline initiative, Tall Timbers Research Station in Florida, etc.) are doing what all research scientists do. They are looking below the surface to probe for a more detailed understanding of many aspects of wild quail. Because of the work done by these scientists we know things that were unknown or only suspected. For example, through extensive trapping and banding programs, 2 quail have been documented to have traveled over 20 miles. Through GPS and radio telemetry studies, we have learned that quail hens choose prickly pear as a nesting substrate about as often as native bunch grass. In addition, that not only hens, but roosters will incubate a nest about 1/3 of the time, especially if conditions are right for multiple hatches. Through the study of countless crop samples (throughout the year) we have learned what makes up a quails diet (not just during hunting season). Through small rodent trapping, it has been demonstrated that there is a direct correlation between quail numbers and Cotton rat numbers. Through nest video surveillance, it has been demonstrated that (contrary to what was once believed) cotton rats do not predate viable eggs, but will readily feast on eggs once hatched. Currently there are several trapping and translocation studies underway to investigate whether this process is a viable tool for re-introducing wild quail back into areas where they once thrived. Genetic mapping is being investigated to determine the genetic makeup and variation of quail populations in various regions of Texas and other states. Research is underway to determine if quail get cues from their environment (rooster whistles, plant chemicals etc.) that direct mating and egg laying. These are only a few examples. Much, much more research and study is underway.

While I agree with everything you have said regarding prescribed fire, native grass, forbs etc, I think it is foolish to discount sound scientific work being done on a species we all cherish.

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As a researcher and observer his work and his team's work would, by it's nature, not impact the quail population. However it might be possible that habitat enhancements based on his research COULD lessen the impact of adverse conditions. While you may be correct, "control burns, predator control, native grass and weed replanting" may be common knowledge it is not a common practice among the majority of ranchers and land owners/managers. I acknowledge that my observations are anecdotal but what I often see is that almost any ranch that can grow turf grass solid from fence row to fence row will do so and will only employ habitat management practices (especially quail habitat) when grass is not a feasible option. Again, not saying that is true of all.

While you have mentioned A&M and UNT and they are doing very commendable research, check out the efforts of Quail-Tech based out of TT and Lubbock. They have not put all their research in just one ranch, but many throughout the Rolling Plains and Panhandle. Their research has shown that they can increase bird counts on ranches in their program. Of course, rain does work majic in all of the University's research programs.

I understand that it upsets some about my comments about Dale Rollins and I did not say he hasn't learned anything from his research. I do believe a lot of what he has learned is not applicable in the real world.
The things I mentioned that work are though.
But for him to say it will be a mediocre year is bull.
I know in Shackelford county we found 30 coveys a day last year and there are more birds this year.
I hunt with a man that has a ranch leased that is less than 2 miles from the big research ranch Dr Rollins has been doing most of his research on and 30 covey days are normal there also.
And Edge Runner is correct about most ranchers not doing prescribed burns and replanting native grasses and weeds. Instead they plant turf grass to feed their cattle. That will never change, but luckily most ranchers in our area are native grass grazers.

Another report from my buddies in Noodle, TX there's more birds than last year. I don't know how but I hope it's true.

The deer hunters on my place in Kent County, while working their feeders, are telling me that they are seeing as many, if not more, birds as compared to the same time last year. If this holds up, we will have a blast, Fingers crossed.

We've had plenty rain again this year on the west side of Jones County and the birds are as good as last year if not better.

CCBIRDDOGMAN you just need to get those dogs ready and I'll show you!! ha. Can't promise another banded bird but who knows 27 miles is a long ways.

Were going for 2 bands this year. 1 Bob and 1 Blue. Dogs will be ready, gonna run them some this weekend if it's not a total washout.

I think what we will see is population fluctuations from area to area. Take the Matador WMA for instance. Based on their road surveys the population should be one fourth of what it was last year. There were over 10,000 quail reported to be killed out there last year.

I hunted on a property last season (2016-17) that I thought had a ton of birds, until I talked to one of the oil company guys who drove the property 3 - 5 days a week, he said there were significantly more quail the year before (2015-16). As we got more familiar with the place we found that first spot had maybe half as many birds as a piece of property less than 10 miles away.

I hope to hunt the same places I found birds last year and based on what I'm hearing there won't be as many birds as last year.

Regardless, I hope it's year of good health and great memories and please Lord help me shoot better this year.

I agree 100 % I have seen on several occasions where five miles with all things other than rain can mean a big difference in number of birds.