When they gobble on roost and then quiet after fly down, you can just about figure they are hened up.

No doubt. Last year, they were further along than this year. Turkey numbers were down on the ranch this year also. I missed a whole group of birds this year that came from a different location.

That's my experience too. I wonder if the drought conditions may have something to do with it as well. Normally this time of year there are running creeks and full tanks on my lease. This year, the largest tank (which is also the most open one that the turkeys and other game usually avoid) is the only one left and it's down to a muddy puddle. I suspect many of the birds, especially the laying hens, have moved off to the few semi-permanent water sources in the area.