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Odds of getting drawn? #5678649 04/01/15 12:50 AM
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My buddy and I put in to be drawn for CO tags. He put in for a mule deer and I put in for a cow elk. Without any points, what are the odds (I realize it's a guess) that we get drawn? 3rd rifle season. Unit 53.

Last edited by David Taylor Construction; 04/01/15 12:51 AM.
Re: Odds of getting drawn? [Re: TTT Ranch] #5678758 04/01/15 01:48 AM
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Very slim chance "but always a chance" the deer tag will be close to 0% chance of getting drawn the cow tag, better odds for sure. A lot of units in Colorado are taking 7+ preference points to draw a deer as a non-resident, not sure about 53. Good luck though!

Re: Odds of getting drawn? [Re: TTT Ranch] #5678772 04/01/15 01:56 AM
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Originally Posted By: David Taylor Construction
My buddy and I put in to be drawn for CO tags. He put in for a mule deer and I put in for a cow elk. Without any points, what are the odds (I realize it's a guess) that we get drawn? 3rd rifle season. Unit 53.


Look at the bright side if you don't draw still lots of units of OTC elk


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Re: Odds of getting drawn? [Re: TTT Ranch] #5679125 04/01/15 11:43 AM
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CO publishes what is called hunting recaps for every unit. They show exactly how many points it takes to draw any hunt in any unit in the state. These are found under the big game tag in the hunting info on their website.

Re: Odds of getting drawn? [Re: BOBO the Clown] #5679131 04/01/15 11:51 AM
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Originally Posted By: BOBO the Clown
Originally Posted By: David Taylor Construction
My buddy and I put in to be drawn for CO tags. He put in for a mule deer and I put in for a cow elk. Without any points, what are the odds (I realize it's a guess) that we get drawn? 3rd rifle season. Unit 53.


Look at the bright side if you don't draw still lots of units of OTC elk


That is what I would plan for, just say'n. I have 2 buddies up to 7 PP each(Deer), for a "not so coveted" area. Prime areas like U61, I have talked with folks that have over 10PP, also for deer.

Elk seems much easier, for me and I would bet the cow tag will be much easier (unit dependent). One of you may have to do as BOBO mentioned and buy an OTC bull tag to hunt together.

I don't know much about u53 except it has some really rough terrain.


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Re: Odds of getting drawn? [Re: Western] #5679269 04/01/15 01:34 PM
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I had 17 points for deer and 14 for elk and pronghorn in Colorado this year. After much study and consternation, I finally applied for a deer unit that has several private ranches known for big bucks. For elk, nothing really rang my chimes, so I just put in for "points only". Same with antelope.

I also had 14 "weighted" points for moose, bighorn, and goat. I applied into good units for all three, but I'm not holding my breath as to the outcome.


"For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple.....and wrong." H. L. Mencken
Re: Odds of getting drawn? [Re: TTT Ranch] #5679420 04/01/15 02:54 PM
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Dawaba...correct me if I'm wrong, but in Colorado, and more than a few other Western states too, as I understand it...the "weighted" draw means that with ABC# of PP's ...everyone that applies for a particular Unit with more PP's than you have, will get drawn before you can be drawn. Correct?

So, with your 14 PP's for Elk in Colorado, and you put in for Unit XYZ, anyone with 15 or more PP's will get drawn in decending order on App's FOR THAT UNIT before you will...Right?

One other ?? ...how does the Res x Non Res PP thing work? I know that lots of Western states have severely resticted #'s of Non Res tags in comparison to the Res Tags....and some Units or Game Animals have no tag at all for Non Res Hunters...Shiras Moose comes to mind in Wyoming or Montana as I recall, where the Res Tags are restricted to a Once in Lifetime Tag basis... IE ...are your PP's only applied to the much smaller pool of Non Res tags for a given variety of critter regardless of the Unit applied for?

Always has frosted me to no end that my Federal Tax dollars support Federal Lands in other states, and I am treated totally different than a Resident on land I have unwillingly contributed towards the cost of...and I have refused to further support the economy of those states by vacationing or hunting in the Rockies ever since when that was driven home to me one year. I know I know Cut Nose off to spite face...again. Oh Well
Ron


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Re: Odds of getting drawn? [Re: WileyCoyote] #5679552 04/01/15 04:35 PM
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Every state has a slightly different process, and some are more fair to nonresidents than others.

You are correct that, in Colorado, the applicant with the most points will get the tag. And generally speaking, Colorado allocates around 10% of its available tags to nonresidents, EVEN FOR HUNTS ON FEDERAL LAND. So in my case with 17 points, if there is only one nonresident tag available for my chosen unit and Joe Blow from Ohio with 18 points also applies to the same unit, JB will get the tag and I will lick my wounds. If the unit has 2 nonresident tags available, JB and I both will get the tags, providing we have the most points of all the applicants.

It is commonplace now for western states to allocate 10% or less of their hunting tags to nonresidents. This holds true even though most of the hunting land in most of these states is NF or BLM land, which is owned by all Americans, not just the residents of the state.

Thirty-or-so years ago, a rich hunter from San Antonio named Terk sued the state of New Mexico, claiming that the NM policy at the time discriminated against nonresidents. Terk won, and NM was forced to give out more tags to nonresidents. A few years later, George Taulman of United States Outfitters filed suit in Arizona, claiming that AZ's allocation of 10% of its tags to nonresidents was unfair because much more than 10% of Arizona's public land was Federally owned. Taulman won too, and AZ was forced to allocate 40%(IIRC) of its tags to nonresidents.

This hey-day for nonresidents lasted exactly one year. Harry Reid in the Senate and Morris Udall in the House, bowing to the clamor of their constituents, introduced a bill that would remove all Federal interference from the affairs and decision-making of all state game departments. This sounds good on the surface (after all, shouldn't Texans have the right to make their own rules for wildlife in Texas, and not Washington?), but in fact Congress was passing a law that nullified the Terk and Taulman decisions.

I wrote to my Congressmen at the time: Hutchinson, Cornyn, and Hensarling, asking that they vote against the Reid-Udall bill. Two of the three wrote back that they supported the bill, since they were strong proponents of states' rights (Cornyn didn't reply, although he voted in favor of the bill like the others).

So....I guess we nonresidents should feel thankful that we still can get (up to) 10% of the tags. After Reid-Udall, I suppose any state could deny nonresidents ANY tags whatsoever. But I guess Coloradans like to see that Texas money flowing into their state, so they reluctantly throw us a bone.


"For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple.....and wrong." H. L. Mencken
Re: Odds of getting drawn? [Re: TTT Ranch] #5679556 04/01/15 04:36 PM
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Wiley, you will spite yourself over that? You may have contributed enough to pay for 1 square yard. The only thing you are out if not drawn is big game hunting, you still have year round access for fishing, small game and many other uses. Pretty cheap for a gazillion acre public lease. Your Tax dollars go to dumber things than protection of public lands for sure.



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Re: Odds of getting drawn? [Re: TTT Ranch] #5679604 04/01/15 04:59 PM
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What I don't like is I don't have the years to wait on preference points. I know the only elk I will ever get to hunt again would be as an exotic here in Texas. It's sad but the facts are there are more hunters than land and animals available. And we keep reproducing and developing the land. Then the dumb arses put the wolves out there and decimate herds to boot. Sad state of affairs in our western states.


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Re: Odds of getting drawn? [Re: dawaba] #5679611 04/01/15 05:03 PM
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Originally Posted By: dawaba
I had 17 points for deer and 14 for elk and pronghorn in Colorado this year. After much study and consternation, I finally applied for a deer unit that has several private ranches known for big bucks. For elk, nothing really rang my chimes, so I just put in for "points only". Same with antelope.

I also had 14 "weighted" points for moose, bighorn, and goat. I applied into good units for all three, but I'm not holding my breath as to the outcome.


Watch snow fall and early spring rain fall numbers on the antelope. You can tell real quick when to use those points.


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Re: Odds of getting drawn? [Re: Western] #5680627 04/02/15 04:16 AM
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Dennis ...It is pretty cheap for a gazillion acres, if you could ever get drawn and actually hunt on it... Nope I've trvelled most of the Country, except for New England and the Pacific Northwest and don't feel the need to contribute to a States economy that discriminates against me when they spend MY Federal Tax dollars. They can do whatever they want to do IMO on their States Lands, but on Federal Land I have another opinion.

I'd really like to see TP&W do what the TxDept Insurance does with Non Res Insurance Licenses. If a State charges $100 and requires stuff for a Texas Resident to have Non Res Ins License in that State, then Texas mirrors that States requirements for their Non Res Agent to get a Texas License. Some States charge a bunch and make you jump thru lotsa hoops & some States, like ummm South Carolina charge Zero, and Texas returns the courtesy. Whats fair for the Goose is fair for the Gander. BTDThis when I was still in the Aflac bidnizz and was beginning to specialize in working with multi location corporations, usually chain retailers with multiple warehouse support systems, before Aflac developed a Multi State Team at Corporate. A buddy in Phoenix had 35-40 States License's working with nothing but Corporate HQ's. Most efficient use of his time was his favorite phrase.
Ron


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Re: Odds of getting drawn? [Re: TTT Ranch] #5681263 04/02/15 05:42 PM
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Makes sense on the insurance part.

As far as Federal land and other states, they probably enjoy being financed by the fed. They call dibs on the game that utilize the FL, so......Same with BLM and some state land tracts. The part I don't like about it, is when they allow a rancher, or other LO, to control by lease, or access either state lands or some BLM. I know of several spots of BLM that are virtually land locked and know for certain Colorado will lease the state school lands.

BTW, just put in for my Colorado Elk tag, I have always got a draw tag with 1 PP in the area I hunt, fingers crossed. I will admit, it was easier when I lived on the Western Slope (and CHEAPER!)


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Dennis

Re: Odds of getting drawn? [Re: dawaba] #5683944 04/04/15 01:49 PM
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Originally Posted By: dawaba

Thirty-or-so years ago, a rich hunter from San Antonio named Terk sued the state of New Mexico, claiming that the NM policy at the time discriminated against nonresidents. Terk won, and NM was forced to give out more tags to nonresidents. A few years later, George Taulman of United States Outfitters filed suit in Arizona, claiming that AZ's allocation of 10% of its tags to nonresidents was unfair because much more than 10% of Arizona's public land was Federally owned. Taulman won too, and AZ was forced to allocate 40%(IIRC) of its tags to nonresidents.


Not quite. Both of those cases were overturned in the courts. You didn't happen to mention that little fact. The SCOTUS has ruled that the game in all the states belongs to the people of those individual states and those individual states can manage the game and the hunting of the game in the manner they see fit. This matter has been settled. Bottom line, you as a taxpayer can use federal land all you want. But the game that resides within the boundaries of the individual states, belongs to the states. And it is the states that have the right to issue tags. This is as it should be. Do you really want to have some idiot in NJ telling TX how to sell hunting licenses?

As to the Harry Reid action, and let me say right now that I detest the man, what he did was put it to the courts to end this type of lawsuit since rich hunters had been going after the states one by one. Suits had been filed in NM, AZ, WY, CO and MT. This made it a national topic and Reid's bill put it to the national level to end the lawsuits. I've personally hunted over 10 states and I have no problem following the laws of the individual states and paying what they charge for tags. Like all things, if you want to play, you have to pay.

Re: Odds of getting drawn? [Re: Flags] #5683981 04/04/15 02:17 PM
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Thanks for the clarification and the fine tuning of my general statement from memory, Flags. All of us agree that the game departments of the states know best how to mind their own wildlife. And we all agree that a Federal court in San Francisco or New Orleans, or even the SCOTUS, has no business making decisions on wildlife management.

BUT....the issue here is whether a western state with, say, 60% of its land federally owned by ALL U.S. citizens, can ethically limit to nonresidents the hunting of its game animals to "no more than 10%" of available tags. Taking Montana as an example, human nature will reveal that Montana residents want 100% of the tags for themselves, whereas nonresidents would want to see the percentage of tags available to everyone to be somewhere near the percentage of federal land in Montana, not just "up to 10%". Nonresidents also find it unfair that their cost for an out-of-state hunting license is often 20 times the fee for the same resident license.

Reid-Udall has made this whole debate moot now, and to the nonresidents' misfortune. Perhaps the Texas P&WD should play the same hardball with its own license fees and nonresident tags.


"For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple.....and wrong." H. L. Mencken
Re: Odds of getting drawn? [Re: TTT Ranch] #5684040 04/04/15 03:20 PM
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In case anyone hasn't said it, after last year's showing there's absolutely no way to draw 53 with 0 pts.



Dawaba, your 17pts would have likely drawn a re-established southern Gunny Basin 4th season tag. If weather was what it was last year (those dang early dates) the deer really didn't start showing up hard on 53 until late Dec.

Re: Odds of getting drawn? [Re: dawaba] #5684927 04/05/15 01:38 PM
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Originally Posted By: dawaba
Perhaps the Texas P&WD should play the same hardball with its own license fees and nonresident tags.


In a way, they do. What does it cost a nonresident to hunt deer in TX compared to a resident? There is very, very little quality public land hunting here so a nonresident can't just plop down the $$$ for a tag and go hunting. They are forced to either hire a guide or pay to hunt someone's land. This makes it very, very expensive for a non-resident to hunt here. Besides, look at how much more they pay for the tag compared to the resident. Now, I'm in full agreement that a non-resident should pay more and all states, including TX, charge a non-resident at least 10X more than they charge a resident for the same tag.

If you want to hunt other states, you pay to hunt them. It doesn't matter if you hunt public land or private land, non-residents will pay more and have less opportunities than the residents. It is what it is. If you object to paying, then don't hunt there, that is your one and only recourse. As to the Federal land in many states, that has nothing to do with how the state issues tags and remember it is up to the states to determine how they issue them. Like I said before, do you want some idiotic politician in NJ making decisions on how you issue tags in TX? I'd like to see TX control the tags just like I want to see CO, MT, WY, ID, UT, AZ, NM, AK etc... control their tags.

Re: Odds of getting drawn? [Re: rifleman] #5685026 04/05/15 03:13 PM
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Originally Posted By: rifleman
In case anyone hasn't said it, after last year's showing there's absolutely no way to draw 53 with 0 pts.



Dawaba, your 17pts would have likely drawn a re-established southern Gunny Basin 4th season tag. If weather was what it was last year (those dang early dates) the deer really didn't start showing up hard on 53 until late Dec.




I don't know of any unit that doesn't at least need 1 PP for a draw bull or ES tag. Honestly though, I have never looked at the place that shows what the average PP per unit is required. I know some units have high PP requirements and even still, some fellas draw out with far fewer than the odds.

I met a fella last year whie ek hunting, he drew a U61 with 5pp! Most I have heard get drawn at around 8-10 for that unit.


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Re: Odds of getting drawn? [Re: Western] #5685071 04/05/15 03:42 PM
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Originally Posted By: Western


I met a fella last year whie ek hunting, he drew a U61 with 5pp! Most I have heard get drawn at around 8-10 for that unit.


He probably drew the "hybrid" tag. CO due to pressure from new hunters and non-resident hunters instituted what is known as the "hybrid" tag for units that require more than 8 points. What this means is they take one tag for each of those highly prized units and put it aside as the "hybrid". Anyone having 5 or more points can try for the "hybrid" and if drawn get to hunt the higher point units. Last year a guy drew a unit 2 either sex tag and took a bull over 370 B&C on a "hybrid" tag he got with 5 points. Unit 2 takes over 20 points for a resident and over 24 points for a non-resident. "Hybrid" tags are open to both residents and non-residents. The "hybrid" tags are pretty controversial since they mean that someone that has been applying for years or even decades will occasionally lose out to someone that hasn't. Last year I was a CO resident and I didn't get a unit 2 tag despite having 20 points but someone with a lot fewer points, see the above, got the "hybrid" tag and hunted elk while I simply got another point.

Last edited by Flags; 04/05/15 03:43 PM.
Re: Odds of getting drawn? [Re: TTT Ranch] #5685180 04/05/15 05:10 PM
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Never heard of a "Hybrid tag" in hunting there, but nothing would surprise me, really makes little sense for the state to go to that trouble. When I lived there, a DOW biologist friend told me how the "%" deal works. He said that when you hear them say 70% of tags go to residents, that is inclusive of all tag types the DOW sales, including fishing, fur-bearer ect tra. So thinking the 70% is big game tag exclusive, would be an incorrect % of what actually goes to residents vs non-residents.

As far as that fella I met, he went out one day after helping someone else pack out a bull, said his "feet hurt" and was done by midday for the year! I can promise you if I had got that tag, I would have hunted on crutches if need be!! grin

I also know several guys that quit applying for CO, since they could get better hunting in other states for the same amount of PP needed, especially for Mule deer.

What part of CO do you live? We lived outside Montrose.


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Re: Odds of getting drawn? [Re: TTT Ranch] #5685204 04/05/15 05:25 PM
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For a select few bull tags, no such on deer. Straight PP system. 61 can be drawn with 5 IIRC for later seasons or some as a res, Really no reason on the hybrid other than to keep ppl applying for a dream instead of weeding out top point holders.

NR has some options & a percentage chance to draw w/ 0pt. 3rd season generally isn't one of them unless it's some high country unit. (53 isn't one of them)

Re: Odds of getting drawn? [Re: TTT Ranch] #5685208 04/05/15 05:28 PM
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Rifleman, the guy I met was from PA iirc, long way to drive and not hunt! This was for 2nd season, which for me was OTC


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Re: Odds of getting drawn? [Re: TTT Ranch] #5685212 04/05/15 05:35 PM
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sure you aren't talking 62?

Re: Odds of getting drawn? [Re: WileyCoyote] #5685229 04/05/15 05:50 PM
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Originally Posted By: WileyCoyote

I'd really like to see TP&W do what the TxDept Insurance does with Non Res Insurance Licenses. If a State charges $100 and requires stuff for a Texas Resident to have Non Res Ins License in that State, then Texas mirrors that States requirements ..........


We do have some primo drawn hunts and charge non residents the same as residents to apply as well as the same permit fee as residents if drawn. Non residents don't even have to have a hunting license to enter the draw.

Oklahoma requires non residents to have a current hunting license to enter their drawn hunts.
New Mexico requires a big game license license fee in advance that they hold until the draw with only 6% of licenses going to non residents. Not to mention the very high big game license fee. And the once popular Valles Caldera drawn hunt now has to follow the state 6% law as well. There are not enough hunts within any one drawn category for their to be a 6% or greater non resident permit.
Colorado also requires the big game license fee up front which also is very high for non residents and seems like it gets an increase about every 5 years. As well a habitat stamp and either a previous year non resident small game/fishing license or $40 fee for each preference point. The number of non resident permits is limited figured on a formula related to the number of resident points required to draw in each unit over a three year period. For example it could be 35%, 20%, or non to non residents in some units.
Kansas like most states a big game license costs probably 10% or more for non residents, but non residents are not allowed to draw for Elk and muzzleloader or rifle Pronghorn. Only residents are allowed to hunt those. The preference point fee for deer is 4 times higher for nonresidents over residents. I will give credit for their version of drawn hunts as there is no extra fee or license requirement to apply in their special hunts.

Texas having little public is not a good argument IMHO . Especially when the land that game in other states your applying for is on National Forest, Refuge, BLM land, etc. is Federal land not owned by those states any more than the private land in Texas is not owned by the State. And then take someone from out of state coming to Texas to hunt Exotics including hogs, the license fee is nothing more than a 5 day special hunting license fee of $48. We pay more than that for some preference point fees in other states. We do have some primo public hunts that has the same application and permit cost as residents. We sell an all inclusive nonresident license for $300 for all game including big game. Priority points are free for nonresidents as well. Hunts like Alligator, Aoudad, and Whitetail on places like Chaparral are very inviting to nonresidents. I have met nonresidents on drawn alligator hunts. When I did my Aoudad hunt at Caprock Canyons there were nonresidents there trying to get on standby. One drove from Colorado. Why not when it only costs a nonresident $5 to apply, $80 permit, and $45 license to hunt Aoudad in Texas.

When Texas Parks and Wildlife has to beg for public donations to operate. When we have to pay such high non resident fees for different fees, nonresident license requirements, high point cost requirments, license limited or non offered for nonresidents. Why on earth are we not makings comparitive requirements and costs to nonresidents! I know we only offer a "priority point" with our drawn hunts, but I believe non residents would pay the fee for the better hunts for a chance to draw. I also believe they would pay priority point fees to build points. It's free money that TPWD is missing out on. Take Pennsylvania's Elk Lottery. They have a priority point only option. Several thousand non residents apply for that draw, several thousand purchase a priority point only. They are fair to nonresidents in PA though. No limit to non residents, same application fee as residents, and the non resident Elk license is only $250. So, If it TPWD ever wakes up it would be nice if as WileyCoyote suggested and there was some kind of formula for States that are Texas friendly like PA and LA

Sorry for my rant. After budgeting for my nonresident point applications, this makes me feel better now.

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Posts: 29,010
Originally Posted By: rifleman
sure you aren't talking 62?


Well, sort of, unit 62 and 61 are on the same mountain, just divided by a road, properly named "divide" rd by the locals. I could walk out my back door and look at most of 62 on the NE side.


If at first you dont succeed, then skydiving is not for you..

"Don't trust everything you read on the Internet"- Abraham Lincoln

Dennis

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