So I have been hearing from people for two years that a market correction is coming...ie price of land is going to drop. What's interesting is that I have heard it from multiple independent people.



Two questions
1 do you think a correction is coming?
2 how much of a correction of you thing? 10%, 20%, etc

Location, location, location.

The falling crude oil price might bring some lower prices in area's that ran up because of the oil boom...

I personally wouldn't bet the farm on this one...You may see an avg. $25-$100 acre drop statewide at some point but not thinking you'll see much more than that if that. Still lots of demand out there relative to the supply...

south texas? no way. Way less property available now due to oil and ranch owners shutting down hunting because they do not need the income. In addition ones who do still lease have trucks running all over their ranches - so the amount of available property to hunt in ST is shrinking.

Everything has cycles. The market, cattle prices, land prices etc. The only time you loose is if you either get in at the wrong time or sell at the wrong time.

They are not making anymore land. But what they are making are smaller places out of larger places. That will keep prices up.

See above.

Some places might not get leased, but price come down DOUBTFUL. Have you ever seen deer leases across the lands drop in price.

Happening all around me. Some as small as 20 acres. At first it was DFW money. Now Midland/Odessa money is competing for small tracts and/or dividing up larger ones. Absolutely want no cattle on their "ranches" and building $100,000+ barndominiums.

Might be a out house now with the money from that area.

First, there will always be corrections. So, your "friends" were "right" in that respect. However, no way they could have predicted the oil price downturn. That was initiated by a Saudi glut.

The land price downturn might not even happen now, or soon. Who knows?

IMO this will be nowhere near the correction of '08-'09. One of the reasons is that most of the big money buyers are still making money behind the bit. And even though that is not as much as it was, it's still a chit ton.

Land will remain strong since more people have cash due to the dow being at all time high.

If dow goes down 10%, investors will put even more money in land.

I sure hope so land prices drop a bit around me. I've been wanting to get a piece of land close to me but they run from $15k/acre and up.

If your trying to time the "Correction" good luck. Feds just gave the market a breather. Once employment is up Interest Rates will go up and Stock Market will go down. Just sign up for the "long haul" and weather the ride. Let's just hope that we will not get another Dubya guy in the White House who lets the sub-prime boys run the economy. BTW, Texas GOP is now working to restrict Local City Ordnances. Given the Texan's always blasting the Feds for regulatory overreaching. There is no shame in Austin!!

Oh wow. So in your uninformed opinion W "let the sub prime boys run the economy"...

First, they didn't run the economy.
Second, W warned about the sub prime BS. But since congress controls the purse he chose to follow the constitution.
Third, If you bought or sold land during W's terms, you made out like a bandit because of his tax policies.

You need to study up a bit. Or just keep on entertaining us.

I'm not going to pretend like I know the answer (no one does), but I do know that it's possible for prices to go up another 20% before a "20% - 30% correction" occurs. Meanwhile, by the time you figured out that the bottom has been reached, it's too late.
Prediction - When interest rise, it will most certainly put a damper on things. That combined with the oil/gas prices remaining low may possibly apply some downward pressure on the market starting this year. There has been a lot of land purchases with oil money in West Texas and I think there is/will be less capital to purchase additional land and an increase in people needing to liquidate land they had just purchased. New money can tend to be a bit careless.
This is only a piece of the puzzle, but I think it's a big piece.

No going to happen, JMO of course.

I didn't know Obama had a screen name here on THF. Everything is George Bush's fault, still 6 years later......

Well Max I'm always amazed at how many people forgot how the economy/stock market "tanked" in 2008/2009. You may be right about it not being Dubya fault as Chaney was the guy calling the shots. But one thing is for certain, it been a long haul but our economy has recovered somewhat and The Big O gotta get credit for it.

Ha.....your dang right he will. Only when things turn out positive, he is first in line to congratulate himself.

Yes, we are all soooo much better off. You are kidding of course.

You would normally think people are kidding with asinine statements like "Chaney was the guy calling the shots". Anyone so misguided, is never gonna be brought around by rational thought or discussion. Its hard to keep up with someone packing so many delusional thoughts into so few sentences.

I'm no big fan of W, & I don't wanna get tricked into a game of chess with a pigeon. All that happens is the pigeon knocks over the pieces, shits on the board, & struts around like they won.

So Texmel, whatever you think buddy.

This, i know of more than a few areas where land has doubled since 2000

While I doubt land would be a good measure of the US overall economic health, it's doubling in 15 yrs would suggest that in 2000 it was undervalued. So what caused it to double in Texas? Fracking? Will the glut of oil in US affect land value in Texas? Certainly putting a damper on new drilling. Had one guy ready to sign on lease, but he got word 5,000 were to be cut in layoff by his company. He got cut.